Fantasy Basketball Rankings 2024-25: Sleepers, breakouts and busts from proven NBA projection model
By CBS Sports Staff,
2 days ago
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Nuggets center Nikola Jokic has been the NBA MVP in three of the last four seasons and the triple-double machine might be even more valuable when it comes to Fantasy basketball. He's averaged more Fantasy points per game (53.8) over the last three years than any other player in the NBA in CBS Sports Fantasy basketball leagues. However, if you're picking first overall this draft season, Victor Wembanyama and Luka Doncic are probably both on your radar along with Jokic.
SportsLine's proven model simulates each season 10,0000 times. This model is powered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. These cheat sheets and rankings, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated multiple times every day. Any time an injury occurs or there's a change on a roster, the team at SportsLine updates its cheat sheets.
Last year the model called Thunder G/F Josh Giddey a bust, predicting that he would never live up to his sixth-round ADP. The result: Giddey had his minutes reduced significantly with Oklahoma City's roster improving and saw corresponding drops in points (16.6 to 12.3), rebounds (7.9 to 6.4) assists (6.2 to 4.8) and steals (0.8 to 0.6). The Thunder ultimately decided to trade him to the Bulls for Alex Caruso this offseason and Fantasy basketball managers who avoided the headache last season were better off for it.
The model also nailed DeMar DeRozan as a sleeper in 2021-22 before he averaged a career-best 27.9 points per game and called Paolo Banchero's and Victor Wembanyama's breakout seasons before they went on to win NBA Rookie of the Year honors the last two seasons. Anyone who followed the model's Fantasy basketball advice on them was well on their way to making a deep postseason run.
One of the top 2024 Fantasy basketball sleepers the model is predicting: Pelicans guard CJ McCollum. Now entering his 13th NBA season, McCollum has never been an NBA All-Star but he was the league's Most Improved Player in 2015-16 and he's coming off a ninth consecutive season where he averaged at least 20 points per game.
He did that despite his 16.0 shots per game being the fewest that he's attempted since 2014-15, thanks in large part to shooting a career-high 42.9% from the 3-point line. He also averaged 4.6 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game last year but he's only been the 39th guard off the board on average in early 2024 Fantasy basketball drafts. However, the model ranks him as a top-25 Fantasy basketball guard for 2024-25. See more Fantasy basketball sleepers 2024 here .
Top 2024 Fantasy basketball breakouts
One of the 2024 Fantasy basketball breakouts the model has identified: Grizzlies center Zach Edey . A two-time national player of the year at Purdue, Edey was selected No. 9 overall in the 2024 NBA Draft by Memphis and the Grizzlies will be hoping that questions about his athleticism are overshadowed by his productiveness. Edey averaged 25.2 points, 12.2 rebounds, 2.3 blocks and 2.0 assists in his final season with the Boilermakers and redeemed a first-round loss in the NCAA Tournament the year prior by leading Purdue to the national championship game in 2024.
Teams will try to draw him outside of the paint at the next level but he uses his incredible size (7-foot-4 and 285 pounds) to pin defenders down, dominate the boards and protect the rim. Expect Memphis to have a clear plan to use him and he should be aided by playing with a premier point guard (Ja Morant). That's why the model ranks him as a top-15 center despite the fact that he's the 36th player off the board at the position on average. Identify other Fantasy basketball breakouts 2024 here .
Top 2024 Fantasy basketball busts
As for players to avoid, the model lists Cavaliers forward Evan Mobley as one of its top 2024 Fantasy basketball busts. Cleveland signed Mobley to a five-year, $224 million max rookie extension earlier in the offseason after he averaged 15.7 points, 9.4 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game last year. He has been a key part of Cleveland's success since he was drafted, and he will now remain a pivotal member moving forward.
However, he is coming off an injury-riddled campaign, missing 22 games from Dec. 8 to Jan. 26 due to knee surgery before missing another stretch later in the season after spraining his ankle. Mobley also saw his scoring average dip from 2022 to 2023 while playing fewer minutes. SportsLine's model views all of these factors as reasons to stay away from Mobley, ranking him outside the top 25 among all forwards. Avoid these 2024 Fantasy basketball busts as well .
How to find proven 2024-25 Fantasy basketball rankings
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