Big East expert picks: 2024-25 preview, projected order of finish, preseason predictions, top players to watch
By Matt Norlander,
15 hours ago
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The purest basketball conference of them all. Eleven teams, the only high-major round-robin schedule left in the sport, immense hate between geographically sensible rivals, Hall-of-Famers in its coaching ranks, the best venue of 'em all for a league tournament — and the two-time reigning national champs.
The Big East. Nothing like it.
This league just feels different ... yet also all too familiar and comfortable. Like this is how college basketball is supposed to be.
And yet, for as much as UConn's dominance has done for the conference, the Big East is trying to make sure last March's trio of NCAA snubs doesn't repeat itself in 2025. Three teams (Connecticut, Marquette , Creighton ) easily made the NCAAs with top-three seeds. But Seton Hall , St. John's and Providence missed out despite having résumés right near the cut line. It was shocking to see none of them break through, with some of that due to the unprecedented number of bid thieves that upped the drama of champ week.
Three bids tied for the fewest amount in conference history, joining the first two years the Big East existed (1979 and '80, when the tournament was 48 teams) and 1993 (when it was a perfect 64-school bracket). That means the Big East never had a lesser percentage of teams represented in March Madness than 2024. The goal for 2025 is to double last year's number, and if not that, send at least five to the Big Dance.
Let's set the table on a conference that has ranked third-best at KenPom.com on average over the past three years.
By passing on the NBA and opting into his COVID bonus season, Kalkbrenner gives Creighton a viable chance to compete for the Big East title. He averaged 17.3 points, 7.6 rebounds and 3.1 blocks for the Bluejays a season ago. Kalkbrenner also doubles as the preseason defensive player of the year in the conference — because he's won it three years in a row. (If he does it again, will he become the first four-time DPOY in a league? Genuinely curious if that's EVER been done in men's D-I.) He also might wind up being the DPOY nationally after finishing as a finalist in '23-24.
With 1,771 points, 843 rebounds and 306 blocks to his name, Kalkbrenner has a shot at finishing with 2,000-plus points, 1,100-plus rebounds and 400-plus blocks. If he does it, he'd join Tim Duncan (2,117 points, 1,570 rebounds, 481 blocks) as the only players to hit those thresholds in all three categories. Plus, the big guy got married this past offseason . Kalkbrenner's literally as committed as ever, which is appropriate, because Creighton will rely on him more in the months ahead than any previous season.
The unanimous pick from CBS Sports voters to be the best Big East frosh. The 19-year-old from Richardson, Texas, was the 10th-ranked player in 2024, per 247 Sports. He projects as a starter for the reigning two-time champions. The Huskies will have to find a lot of production after losing four starters off the 2024 title-winning squad. McNeeley is a tough-nosed scorer who figures to buy into Dan Hurley's system.
He's also the most likely freshman in the Big East to earn the most minutes and shot attempts. The Huskies just had the best freshman in the league and watched him go top-five in the draft. McNeeley isn't the defender Steph Castle was, but he can be a much more reliable scorer and arguably an even more vocal presence on the court. If UConn's going to push for a third straight Final Four, McNeeley can't get lost in the shuffle. We like his chances to rank among the best newbies in hoops.
Four more players to watch
Alex Karaban | SF/PF | UConn: After seriously deliberating staying in the NBA Draft, Karaban turned down a multi-year guaranteed contract in the second round to return to Storrs and chase college sports immortality. Karaban averaged 13.5 points, 5.1 rebounds and shot 38% from 3-point range on 214 attempts as a sophomore. With 77 starts to his name, Karaban now moves into a go-to role after playing a crucial and clutch complementary piece as a freshman and a sophomore. As he goes, so go the Huskies.
Kam Jones | SG | Marquette: At 17.2 points per game last season, the only returning player to the Big East who averaged more than Jones was Kalkbrenner, narrowly (17.3). Jones is a fourth-year shooting guard who may see a few more opportunities to run Shaka Smart's offense now that Tyler Kolek is on the Knicks. He works best off the ball, though, and will try to be a 40% 3-point shooter for a second consecutive season. Few players in the conference can match Jones' killer instinct when hunting big shots.
Kadary Richmond | SG | St. John's: Oh, the drama! Richmond, who began at Syracuse , spent the past three seasons building out a strong college career with Seton Hall. Having one year of eligibility left, Richmond cashed in and turned coat in-league to play for Rick Pitino at St. John's. He's poised to be SJU's No. 1 option on offense. Will he exceed last year's tremendous stat line? Going to be tough to top; the Brooklyn native is coming off averages of 15.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 2.2 steals.
Bryce Hopkins | Wing | Providence: Hopkins' season ended on Jan. 3 against Seton Hall when he tore his left ACL. Fourteen games in, Hopkins was done after putting up 15.5 points and 8.6 rebounds as the top option for Kim English in his first year guiding the Friars. There was some April consternation over whether Hopkins would hit the portal, but he stayed in Providence and should be one of the highest usage players in the conference. Hopkins was First Team All-Big East in 2022-23. If he returns to form, we like his chances to do it again in 2025.
If Providence is going to get over the NCAA tourney bar in 2025, Bryce Hopkins will need to be one of the Big East's best. USATSI
Big East predicted order of finish
1
As should be the case, the Huskies were the unanimous pick to win the league in our voting collective. The Huskies are the top program led by the top coach in the sport. What an offseason, though. Dan Hurley seriously considered leaving to coach the Los Angeles Lakers, and that of course came two months after Hurley turned down Kentucky 's interest following a second straight national title. Then UConn got involved with the Big 12 again, only to be rebuffed by some of that league's presidents and athletic directors. Now poised to remain in the Big East in the years to come, the Huskies will try to rule the league once again despite losing four starters from last season's team. Alex Karaban is the big name, but look for sophomores Jaylin Stewart and Solo Ball to emerge as major factors in Storrs. Liam McNeeley will be prominently featured, but the big key is how Samson Johnson and Michigan transfer Tarris Reed Jr . step in to replace Donovan Clingan's presence down low. Aidan Mahaney is also in the fold, having transferred from Saint Mary's . He'll complement starting point guard Hassan Diarra , who Hurley has immense belief in to be a competitive floor general. The pressure remains heavy at UConn. Hurley will see to that. Can't wait to see how this tour goes.
2
No Tyler Kolek to run the show anymore. First season for Shaka Smart at MU in which he doesn't have Kolek. That type of loss would drop a lot of teams, but Marquette's culture and roster retention is so healthy it would be a genuine shock if this band wasn't top-four in the Big East yet again. As it stands, we're putting them in the 2-hole going into November. Kam Jones and Stevie Mitchell are back, bringing spunk and a scoring streak to 'quette that can keep Smart's program in the top three in Big East offensive efficiency for a third straight season. David Joplin on the wing and Ben Gold down low are also still around, giving MU ever-valuable minutes coming back. If Sean Jones (ACL) can return at some point this season and be a plus contributor, the Golden Eagles will have six players back who averaged 16-plus minutes last season. No other Big East school (and perhaps no other high-major program) returns that many players who played that many minutes.
3
Will start with Kalkbrenner here, as he's the most important player for any team in the Big East in my estimation. His value isn't just from his stats but from his stamina and intelligence. Kalkbrenner has never fouled out in 134 games. In fact, last season, despite averaging 34.6 minutes, Big Kalk never had a game with four fouls. For a defensive standout, that's insane. He's set to be one of the best players in the sport. Beyond the big guy, the Bluejays also bring back starters Steven Ashworth (point guard) and Mason Miller (small forward). Ashworth is a career 39% 3-point shooter and I wonder if he might go for 43/44% in his final college season. I expect him to be a top-10 player of value in this conference. The biggest transfer portal add is Pop Isaacs , who put up 15.8 points per game for Texas Tech last season. Unclear how much depth Creighton will have, but that was an issue in recent seasons. And what have we seen? The best phase in CU history, punctuated by two Sweet 16s, an Elite Eight and top-four finishes in each of the last four seasons in the Big East.
4
Our voting collective puts St. John's at fourth ... and that feels like it should be the floor for this group. One of the sneaky-great portal adds by any team this past spring was the Johnnies landing Utah transfer Deivon Smith , whose 2023-24 stat line was as good as almost anyone who opted to transfer. Smith averaged 13.3 points, 7.1 assists and 6.3 rebounds as a lead guard. Teaming Smith up with Kadary Richmond should give St. John's the kind of size-plus-scoring in its backcourt that will be a matchup problem for most teams most nights. Rick Pitino has also been hard at work grooming Simeon Wilcher for a breakout season. Wilcher and RJ Luis are the most recognizable names still here from last year. Pitino also tapped USC big man Vincent Iwuchukwu to alternate with Zuby Ejiofor at the 5. After being left outside the NCAAs in March, the Red Storm's coaching staff is dead set on not making it a question in 2025. The defense will be much better, as will the team's athleticism. Lateral quickness is back in Jamaica, Queens , and St. John's will be back in the first round of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2015.
5
The X men are expected to compete for an NCAA bid again after a swoon in Year 2 under Sean Miller. Xavier should start one of the oldest quintets in the Big East. Zach Freemantle is finally back for one last season after sitting for mostly two years due to injuries and surgeries. Jerome Hunter is also in the fold after being sidelined with a heart issue. Having those two on this roster is going to go a long way to keeping X in the top half of the conference. Dayvion McKnight returning for a final year at point guard will be arguably just as crucial. He averaged 4.8 assists last season and will be one of the Muskies' best 3-point options. Six players averaged double-digit scoring a year ago, be it with Xavier or on another team. The offense is going to be very good, and in the process, up the competitiveness and national standing of the conference.
6
The Friars won 21 games last season — which included a few big-time victories — but missed out on March Madness after taking one too many knotty losses. Kim English did this without his best player for much of the year. Funny thing, though: In losing Bryce Hopkins, it was Devin Carter who became the Big East Player of the Year. Carter subsequently became a lottery pick. Now Hopkins is back and he'll have a chance to vie for Big East POY if he can continue his pace from last season: 15.6 ppg, 8.6 rebounds. The Friars bring Jayden Pierre (9.5 ppg) back into the starting lineup as well, while transferring in Bensley Joseph (Miami), Wesley Cardet Jr . ( Chicago State ) and Christ Essandoko (Saint Joe's). That figures to be the most common starting five for the Friars, with Joseph and freshman big Oswin Erhunmwunse poised to be A-level defenders.
7
A consequential campaign awaits on the Main Line. Kyle Neptune's third season on the job most likely has to include an NCAA Tournament appearance in order to get to a fourth. Villanova has significantly slipped in the national landscape over the past two years, following Jay Wright's retirement and that privileged 2022 Final Four run. Nova went 18-16 last season and lost to Philly brethren Penn , Saint Joe's and Drexel along the way. The thud: The Wildcats were soundly defeated at home in the first round of the NIT by VCU . These results can't continue. It starts with Eric Dixon , the bruising power forward who has been a consistent bright spot amid the darkening times. He and Jordan Longino are the guys back who will be the voices in the locker room that ring loudest. The big portal add was Miami 's Wooga Poplar , an athletic shooting guard still scraping at his ceiling. He's the player giving VU fans hope this year can be better. Villanova has underperformed relative to expectations the past two seasons. Now it needs to overshoot in Year 3 of Neptune's tenure.
8
Shaheen Holloway has made a good living thriving on others underestimating his teams and his coaching ability. The roster in Orange, New Jersey, doesn't look intimidating, but how far should SHU fall a year after winning 25 games and taking the NIT championship? I'm uneasy slotting SHU at No. 8. Remember, the Hall was two spots from making last year's NCAAs, only to be boxed out by bid thieves. Kadary Richmond's departure to St. John's is a massive hit, without question, so the question morphs to: Who is the alpha now? Dylan Addae-Wusu (8.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg) is the most productive returnee. The roster changeover (Seton Hall lost approximately 75% of its minutes) means this is the most mysterious team in the conference. Truthfully, Holloway's track record is what is keeping SHU from 10th or 11th in our preseason forecast.
9
If there's a viable Big East sleeper, it's Butler . I said this last year as well, and lo and behold, Butler got to 16-8 before the February skids put them out of the bubble picture. Thad Matta's toiled a bit for two years in Indy, but his coaching acumen can't be questioned. By bringing back much of the roster from an 18-win team, the expectation should be to hit 20 victories. Pierre Brooks II and Jahmyl Telfort return, giving BU credibility on the wing. The combo combined to score nearly 30 points per night and should eclipse that number in the months ahead. Butler hasn't been dancing since 2018. With Kolby King now playing point guard, will the Tulane transfer be good enough to jump the Bulldogs' offense into the top half of the Big East? Hey, if Butler's projected ninth in an 11-team conference, the Big East should be better than last season.
10
I expect the Hoyas to reach the NCAA Tournament under Ed Cooley, but this doesn't look like the roster that's going to get there. It's Cooley's second season and a big jump in production should be the expectation. Georgetown won just nine games last season; I think it gets to at least 14 in Year 2. Jayden Epps (18.5 ppg) returns for his junior season. He'll likely flirt with leading the Big East in scoring, though I suspect Harvard transfer Malik Mack winds up being the most important player for the Hoyas. TCU transfer Micah Peavy should also contribute significantly to what I expect to be a borderline top-100 team. (Which would be huge! G'town ranked 192 at KenPom.) Cooley's defense has to improve significantly to change its standing in the league. That remains TBD .
11
I was in Chicago last week for Big Ten Media Day and made sure to find some time to sit in on a Blue Demons practice. To say Chris Holtmann has ripped this thing down to the studs would be to suggest there was a lot to tear down to begin with. Give it time. DePaul got some good pieces in Arkansas transfer Layden Blocker , Drake lead guard Conner Enright, and stretch 4 David Skogman , who shot 47.1% from 3 for Davidson last season. The roster isn't barren, at the very least. But it's fair to project DePaul where it's been most of its time in the Big East: in the cellar. The good news is this program should, minimally, triple last season's win total. Which was three. Yes. Three. Winning nine should be the floor. Getting Holtmann was massive for this school. We sat down after practice and got to talking about why he felt compelled to take this job. I'll have a column on that publishing in the coming days.
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