2024 Week 6 NFL picks, odds, best bets from advanced model: This five-way football parlay pays 25-1

Drake Maye will make his first NFL start on Sunday when the No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft leads the New England Patriots against the Houston Texans. The two quarterbacks drafted above him have started all season, but Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels struggled to find the end zone, with neither quarterback throwing a touchdown in their first two games. The Texans have the No. 1 pass defense for completion percentage against (51.7), so this won't be an easy matchup for Maye to make his starting debut. The Texans are 6.5-point favorites on the road according to the latest Week 6 NFL odds.

Houston improved to 4-1 after a 23-20 win over the Bills last week, so should you expect the Texans to have a memorable performance against the rookie in his NFL debut when making Week 6 NFL bets and NFL parlay picks? Before you make any Week 6 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 10-2 hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year. Longer term, it is on a 191-131 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 45-23 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has scoured the Week 6 NFL odds and locked in five confident NFL best bets. If you successfully parlay its picks, you'd be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model's Week 6 NFL picks at SportsLine .

Top Week 6 NFL picks

After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the Green Bay Packers (-5.5, 47.5) to cover at home against the Arizona Cardinals . The Packers are coming off a 24-19 victory over the Rams to improve to 3-2, including 2-1 in games started by Jordan Love. The Packers QB1 made his return after missing two weeks with a leg injury and completed 15 of 26 passes for 224 yards with two touchdowns and an interception last week. The Packers have played well defensively as well, holding their opponents below 20 points in three of their last four games as the unit ranks 14th in scoring defense (21.6 points per game).

Meanwhile, the Cardinals rank 27th in scoring defense at 25.8 points per game allowed this season. Arizona has had difficulty getting off the field as teams are converting third downs at 47.3%, which ranks 30th in the league. The Cardinals also rank 30th in completion percentage against and yards per pass, so with another week for Love to feel even healthier, the Packers offense may be too much for Arizona to contain on Sunday. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here .

How to make Week 6 NFL parlays

The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including two underdogs that win outright, defying oddsmakers everywhere. You can only see the model's NFL Week 6 best bets and parlay at SportsLine .

What are the model's top Week 6 NFL picks, and which NFL matchups should you target for an epic 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 6 NFL best bets from a model on an 191-131 run on top-rated picks , and find out.