What will fall feel like in central PA? Here’s what current weather models predict

Cooler-than-usual temperatures in the State College area this week likely gave central Pennsylvania residents a glimpse at the coming fall season.

The high temperature in State College topped out at just 64 degrees Fahrenheit Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service. The unseasonably cool air will balance out when highs creep back into the mid-80s over the weekend, but relief is certainly on the way with just about a month to go until fall begins.

So, what might autumn feel like this year? Here’s what you should know about fall weather in central Pennsylvania, including a look at normal seasonal temperatures and the latest outlook from the nation’s premier climate prediction models.

What’s considered ‘normal’ weather?

Through its work, the NWS defines “normal” as the average weather and climate produced over 30 years . However, many stations across the country can’t collect complete observations for full 30-year periods, so it’s best to think of NWS normals as good but imperfect baselines for the weather and climate you might expect at a particular place throughout the seasons.

According to the NWS, normals serve as a reference period for monitoring current weather and climate and also act as a good description of the experienced climate as it happens in a certain place. Normals also provide a measuring stick of sorts to use when comparing current weather to past events and can be used to plan for conditions “beyond the time span of reliable weather forecasts,” the agency says.

Normal fall weather in Centre County

Here’s a look at the normal temperatures and precipitation rates observed in State College between August and November , according to the NWS. These normals were found using observational data recorded between 1991 and 2020.

August :

• Average maximum temperature: 79.3 degrees Fahrenheit
• Average minimum temperature: 61.6 degrees
• Average overall temperature: 70.4 degrees
• Total normal precipitation: 4.16 inches

September :

• Average maximum temperature: 72.3 degrees
  
  
• Average minimum temperature: 54.1 degrees
• Average overall temperature: 63.2 degrees
• Total normal precipitation: 3.95 inches

October :

• Average maximum temperature: 60.7 degrees
  
  
• Average minimum temperature: 43.0 degrees
• Average overall temperature: 51.9 degrees
• Total normal precipitation: 3.46 inches

November :

• Average maximum temperature: 48.8 degrees
  
  
• Average minimum temperature: 33.5 degrees
• Average overall temperature: 41.2 degrees
• Total normal precipitation: 2.99 inches

Above-normal temperatures could be in store for Pennsylvania

Recent reports from the NWS’s Climate Prediction Center suggest Pennsylvania is likely to observe above-normal temperatures between September and November. For Pennsylvania, “likely” suggests between a roughly 50 to 60% chance of seeing above-normal temperatures.

The eastern half of Pennsylvania is leaning toward observing above-normal precipitation in those fall months. Graphs produced by the Climate Prediction Center suggest “leaning” means between roughly a 33 to 50% chance. Pennsylvania’s western half is thought to have equal chances of above- or below-average precipitation.

Though much of the commonwealth was once observing abnormally dry conditions this summer, drought threats have generally subsided across much of Pennsylvania as of late August. However, much of southwestern Pennsylvania remains under drought conditions , according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Fayette, Greene, Somerset and Westmoreland counties face the biggest current threat with “severe drought” conditions as of Aug. 20, the agency reports.

The State College area has observed above-normal precipitation this summer despite a dry start to the season. According to NWS records, State College has recorded about 11.17 inches of precipitation since summer began June 20, falling well above the 8.22 inches of rain usually seen in that span during a normal year. Nearly 4 inches of rain fell between Aug. 6 and 10 , the agency reports.

Despite its wet summer, State College has a long way to go before approaching record rainfall for the season. That honor belongs to the summer of 2018, which saw nearly 17.5 inches of rain fall between June 20 and Aug. 22.

Current models predict a La Niña system could take hold and affect the U.S. and Northern Hemisphere throughout the late fall and winter of 2024 through early 2025. Though many factors contribute to the climate system’s overall impact on U.S. weather and climate, La Niña winters in the Mid-Atlantic are generally wetter and warmer than average.