Penn State vs. No. 19 Illinois: Final thoughts and analysis of PSU’s matchup with the Illini

Penn State will host its first conference game of 2024 Saturday night when it takes on No. 19 Illinois. The Nittany Lions will play the Fighting Illini in Beaver Stadium in Week 4 of the college football season. Here are some final thoughts, questions and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with Illinois.

Allar’s biggest test

Penn State faced a quality opponent in week one when it took on West Virginia , but the Mountaineer defense isn’t anywhere near as good as the one the Nittany Lions will face this Saturday. Illinois ranks No. 31 on defense in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency, while WVU ranks No. 89 in the metric. The Illini have fared well against their two best opponents this year — Kansas and Nebraska — but Penn State is on another level compared to those two programs. This will be the biggest test of the year for Penn State quarterback Drew Allar and it’s one I expect him to pass.

Allar has lit up his first three opponents, but none have the secondary Illinois does. He’s excelled in offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s offense and looks like a far more confident quarterback this season. That being said, he hasn’t had to problem solve frequently because of the quality of opponents he’s faced. That should change on Saturday and if he excels, it could point to the junior quarterback being even better than anticipated this season.

How will the receivers fare?

The other group that will be tested is the one that had the most question marks surrounding it entering the season. The Nittany Lion wide receivers were a major weak point last year but have played well three games into the season. Tre Wallace has emerged as a top option, while Julian Fleming, Liam Clifford and Omari Evans have been excellent complementary pieces to this point. The Illini have the best secondary of any team in the first third of Penn State’s schedule and will put all four of those players — and potentially Kaden Saunders, who has been dealing with an injury this season — in position to prove something.

The receivers won’t necessarily have to dominate against Illinois, but they need to prove they can be relied upon against quality opponents. That’s a bar they should clear this weekend, allowing them to stay on track to being the breakout position group on the team this season. Wallace producing, along with at least one of the others, should provide enough for the offense to excel and move the ball easily against Illinois. They’ll have the benefit of tight end Tyler Warren drawing attention from the defense, and that should put them in position to succeed.

Stopping Altmyer should be the focus

I’m stating the obvious here, but Luke Altmyer is the key to the Illinois offense. The quarterback has been much better in his second season as the team’s starting signal caller. He was excellent against a very good Nebraska defense, managing the game well and taking what the Cornhusker defense gave him. It helps that Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin have been very good at receiver, but that doesn’t take away from what Altmyer has done. His production had been enough to secure wins in the team’s first three games, but he went above and beyond in the fourth game against the Huskers.

Altmyer put throw after throw on the money to Franklin, Bryant and the rest of his weapons, and stayed within himself without trying to create too much on his own. That’s one aspect he may have to tap into against Penn State — his mobility — that he hasn’t so far this season. Altmyer is a true dual threat who has relied more on his arm this season, but that should change on Saturday. This is the ideal opportunity for the Illini offense to pull out all the stops and try to knock off Penn State in Illinois’ biggest game of the season so far. If the Nittany Lions can slow Altmyer and the offense down, they should be able to put this game away early.

Final predictions

Penn State 31, Illinois 13: I know Illinois is ranked as a top-20 team in the country, but the betting spread of this game (it opened at -17.5) indicates what I believe to be true — the Nittany Lions are clearly better than the Illini. If Penn State gets an early lead, which I expect it to, then pulling away shouldn’t be a problem, especially because this will be a night game in Beaver Stadium.

MVP: Drew Allar. Penn State’s offense has been excellent through three games but I think this is going to be Allar’s breakout performance — one that could put him closer to the Heisman conversation. The Nittany Lion quarterback is primed for an enormous game, and I’ll say he gets 300 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, a rushing touchdown and a few downfield throws that has NFL scouts salivating.

The last word

Penn State head coach James Franklin on the team’s improvement at wide receiver

“I’ve been pleased with the step that we’ve taken. ... We’ve got to continue to build it, build their confidence and build their production, but I think it’s hard to argue that they may be the most improved position on the team right now. Let’s be honest with it, we needed that to happen, so that’s fair. I’m not saying some of the things that were written and said in the past were not fair, but again just like his coaches, if we’re going to be critical, then they should be praised when they’re doing some really good things, which I think they are. Again, to your question, I think this week we’ll be challenged. We’ve got to put them in the best position we possibly can to be successful, and they’ve got to continue to get better and compete and be aggressive. I think we’re at our best at that wide receiver position when those guys are being aggressive, and I’ve seen it more consistently in practice. I’m seeing it more consistently in games, and I think you guys are as well.”

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