How Penn State has fared in its first ranked matchup of the season over the last decade

Penn State, in a bit of a surprise, will have its first ranked matchup of the season before September is over. The No. 9 Nittany Lions will take on the No. 19 Illinois Fighting Illini Saturday night in Beaver Stadium.

Let’s take a look at how Penn State has fared in the James Franklin era in their first ranked matchup of the season.

2023: Penn State defeats No. 24 Iowa, 31-0

2022: Penn State falls to No. 5 Michigan, 41-17

2021: Penn State defeats No. 12 Wisconsin, 16-10

2020: Penn State falls to No. 3 Ohio State, 38-25

2019: Penn State defeats No. 17 Iowa, 17-12

2018: Penn State falls to No. 4 Ohio State, 27-26

2017: Penn State defeats No. 19 Michigan, 42-13

2016: Penn State falls to No. 4 Michigan, 49-10

2015: Penn State falls to No. 1 Ohio State, 38-10

2014: Penn State falls to No. 13 Ohio State, 31-24

• The Nittany Lions are 4-6 overall in those games, with an important caveat. Their only losses have come against two schools — Ohio State and Michigan.
• They’re 1-6 against those two schools with the win coming in 2017 over the Wolverines in blowout fashion, 49-10.
• Of those six losses, only two have been within one score. Penn State lost to Ohio State 27-26 in 2017 and 31-24 to the. Buckeyes in double overtime in 2014.
• Importantly, Penn State has taken care of business against every school other than those two. The Nittany Lions are 3-0 with those wins coming against similar types of programs.
• Those victories, over Iowa and Wisconsin, came against programs that played similarly. The Badgers and Hawkeyes had strong defensive teams but struggled to score on offense.

What it means

Last season’s game against Iowa is the best comparison for this weekend’s matchup, but even then it’s not a perfect fit. That Iowa team had one of the best defenses in the country, while Illinois’ grades out as a good defense that has not proven to be elite. That, along with Iowa’s inept offense compared to Illinois’ below average offense makes the comparison less appropriate.

Essentially, this Illinois team is a more balanced version of that Iowa team, but one that compares similarly in overall quality — and in likelihood of earning an upset. Illinois has the No. 70 offense and the No. 31 defense in the country according to ESPN’s SP+, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.

And while Illinois has played well this season, especially at quarterback with Luke Altmyer, the Illini struggled mightily against Penn State last year. The Nittany Lions won that game 30-13 in a matchup that they dominated from the start. Most importantly, they picked off Altmyer four times and caused five total turnovers in the game.

While Penn State has not had enormous success in general against its first ranked matchups of the season, this Illinois team clearly falls into the bucket of teams the program is 3-0 against — and not the ones it is 1-6 against.