North Carolina College Football Preview 2024: Season Breakdown, Predictions, Key Players, Schedule

North Carolina College Football Preview 2024

It’s not like the Mack Brown era has been bad—quite the contrary, especially coming off a 5-18 two-year run before he was hired—but this was sort of the concern when he was hired in 2019.

Where’s the high ceiling?

He’s Mack Brown. He’s a College Football Hall of Fame coach, a good guy, and a great recruiter and motivator. Everyone likes him, everyone wants him to succeed, and again, he’s doing a strong job overall.

UNC had an 11-3 season under Larry Fedora in 2015, and that’s been the last ten-win season since … Mack Brown in 1997.

So yeah, winning nine games in 2022 mattered, because 2015 was also the last time the team came up with more than eight wins since the end of the first Brown era. But it would be nice to get more.

The door is open just a crack, and this is when the Tar Heels have to bust through.

North Carolina has gone to five bowl games in five years—okay, so it lost the last four, but whatever—and it got to take its whacks in the 2022 ACC Championship before getting popped by Clemson.

24-18 in ACC play and 38-27 overall has been good. Not amazing, considering the ACC isn’t the Big Ten or SEC, but good.

More on this at the end, but the ACC schedule is about as nice as can be, the non-conference slate isn’t awful, and the team has the experience and talent built up over five years to potentially make this the best one yet in the Mack Brown 2.0 era.

Louisville had a 10-2 regular season in 2023. Wake Forest won 11 games in 2021, as did Pitt.

North Carolina is good enough to take that next step.

North Carolina Football Preview 2024: Offense

- There’s no more Drake Maye around, but the North Carolina offense should still be amazing.

Former Troy head coach Chip Lindsey worked out just fine as the offensive coordinator. The Tar Heels led the ACC averaging 491 yards per game and was second in scoring averaging 34.5 points. But there’s no Drake Maye around anymore.

Max Johnson is a tall, talented passer who started out at LSU, went the last two seasons at Texas A&M, and has enough time logged in - throwing for over 5,800 career yards with 47 touchdowns with just 12 picks - and has just enough mobility to be okay.

Conner Harrell saw a little time as the No. 2 man last year and should be behind Johnson.

- The Tar Heel receiving corps loses Tez Walker, but leading receiver JJ Jones is back on the outside after making 46 grabs for 711 yards. The tight end combination of Bryson Nesbit and John Copenhaver is terrific - they came up with nine scores - and there’s just enough pop among the new starting receivers for Johnson to shine.

- The offensive line wasn’t great in pass protection, but was strong for the ground game. The transfer portal is helping with Austin Blaske (Georgia) coming in at center and Howard Sampson (North Texas) should settle in at left tackle. Former Coastal Carolina transfer Willie Lampkin might be undersized, but he’s a good one at right guard.

They all have a star to block for. Omarion Hampton ran for over 1,500 yards and 15 scores, and he’ll be the main man even more with Johnson not the runner Maye was. USC transfer Darwin Barlow and Caleb Hood will see plenty of time in the rotation.

North Carolina Football Preview 2024: Defense

- The offense was among the best in the ACC; the defense wasn’t. There wasn’t enough of a pass rush, the run defense was awful, and overall the group allowed over 400 yards per game.

North Carolina was 5-0 when allowing fewer than 30 points, 3-5 when giving up that many or more, and any improvement starts with …

- The defensive front has experience. It needs to be far stronger against the run, but three starters are back, four if you want to count Jahvareer Ritzie at one of the tackle spots, and there’s size. Kaimon Rucker is a 265-pound end who came up with a team-high 8.5 sacks 15 tackles for loss, and 315-pound Kevin Hester is a big veteran on the nose.

Leading tackler Cedric Gray is done after making 121 tackles, but second-leading tackler Power Echols is back at middle linebacker after making 103 stops, and 230-pound sophomore Amare Campbell is a rising option on the outside.

- Three starters return to a secondary that can get all over the field, but has to come up with more key stops. The corner tandem of Marcus Allen and Alijah Huzzie is good enough - Huzzie led the team with three picks - and former Georgia State safety Antavious Lane is a good tackler who came up with a good first year with the Tar Heels. NC State transfer Jakeen Harris missed most of last year, but he’s a strong tackling veteran coming in at another safety job.

Key To The North Carolina Football Season

Just don’t be totally miserable defensively.
Shock of shocks, like most teams, North Carolina isn’t as good when the defense is giving up a ton of yards. What’s weird about this team, though, is that’s it’s built to keep up in shootouts - in 2022 defensive yards allowed didn’t matter so much, but they did in 2023.

Granted, some teams keep the O going because they have to open things up, but mostly, the UNC D hasn’t been great.

Last year the Tar Heels went 6-0 when allowing fewer than 390 yards of total offense, and was 2-5 when giving up more. One of those wins came only because the defense forced four takeaways against Miami, and the other was the wild thriller over Appalachian State.

North Carolina Key Player

Kevin Hester, DT Sr.
The offense will be fine, because the North Carolina offense is always fine. It’s the defense that has to be more of a rock, and it starts with the big man in the middle continuing to hold up.

He’s been good since taking on a bigger role over the last three seasons making 99 tackles, but he doesn’t get into the backfield because that’s not his job. Going into his sixth season, and with the experience around him, if he dominates, the rest of the defensive front should get all the glory.

North Carolina Football Top Transfer, Biggest Transfer Loss

Top Transfer In: Max Johnson, QB Sr.
There might be more talented transfers coming to Chapel Hill - S Jakeen Harris from NC State and North Texas OT Howard Sampson should be a factor - but it’s Johnson who has to be the star.

It’s asking for the world to get another Drake Maye, or Sam Howell, or Mitchell Trubisky, but the quarterbacks in this attack are everything. The left-handed former LSU Tiger and Texas A&M Aggie will get his chance.

Top Transfer Out: Diego Pounds, OT Jr.
Again, the spotlight will be on Howard Sampson from North Texas at left tackle, or possibly Jarvis Hicks or 6-8, 340-pound sophomore Trevyon Green. The line will be okay, but it’ll miss the 6-5, 330-pound Pounds. He started most of last year and will instantly be Lane Kiffin’s left tackle for Ole Miss this season.

North Carolina Key Game

NC State, Nov. 30
Overall the ACC schedule isn’t bad. The road date at Florida State is rough, but going to Duke, Virginia, and Boston College isn’t asking for the world. It’s quite possible that UNC could still be in the ACC title hunt late in the year even with a loss to the Seminoles, but beating NC State in the regular season finale is a must.

The Wolfpack have won the last three games in the series and six of the last eight.

10 Best North Carolina Football Players

1. Omarion Hampton, RB Jr.
2. Kaimon Rucker, EDGE Sr.
3. Power Echols, LB Sr.
4. Bryson Nesbit, TE Sr.
5. Alijah Huzzie, CB Sr.
6. Willie Lampkin, OG Jr.
7. Max Johnson, QB Sr.
8. Noah Burnette, PK Sr.
9. Antavious Lane, S Sr.
10. Marcus Allen, CB Sr.

North Carolina 2023 Fun Stats

- Sacks: Opponents 37 for 184 yards, North Carolina 28 for 217 yards

- 3rd Quarter Scoring: North Carolina 125, Opponents 64

- Onside Kicks: Opponents 2-for-3, North Carolina 0-for-1

North Carolina Football 2024 Win Total Prediction: What to Expect This Season

Is it possible that North Carolina - in a strange sort of way - will be better without having to rely on Drake Maye?

The O line will be fine, Omarion Hampton is a special running back, and Max Johnson it a veteran quarterback who’ll keep it all going.

The Tar Heel defense won’t be Georgia or anything, but there’s too much experience to not be better, especially against this schedule.

There’s no South Carolina like there was last year, but going to Minnesota could be tricky and James Madison could be every bit as scary a Sun Belt game as Appalachian State was last year. Even so, if North Carolina is good, it goes 4-0 against the non-conference slate - it’ll probably be 3-1.

There’s no Clemson on the schedule, and there’s no Louisville or Miami, either. SMU could be more dangerous than everyone believes, Virginia Tech is better, and Syracuse is a wild card - all three are off the slate, too.

And then there’s the hidden plus - there aren’t any trips across the country to face Stanford or Cal.

The Tar Heels won’t have any issues getting to six wins, and as long as there aren’t any major misfires - like last year’s loss to Virginia - they should get into late November with a chance to be deep in the hunt for an ACC Championship appearance with Wake Forest, at Boston College, and NC State the make-or-break stretch.

Set The North Carolina Win Total At … 8

Likely Wins: Charlotte, NC Central

50/50 Games: at Boston College, at Duke, Georgia Tech, James Madison, at Minnesota, NC State, Pitt, at Virginia, Wake Forest

Likely Losses: at Florida State

2024 North Carolina Football Schedule

Aug 29 at Minnesota
Sept 7 Charlotte
Sept 14 NC Central
Sept 21 James Madison
Sept 28 at Duke
Oct 5 Pitt
Oct 12 Georgia Tech
Oct 19 OPEN DATE
Oct 26 at Virginia
Nov 2 at Florida State
Nov 9 OPEN DATE
Nov 16 Wake Forest
Nov 23 at Boston College
Nov 30 NC State
Missing: Cal, Clemson, Louisville, Miami, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech