Exclusive: Charlotte no longer "50th out of 50" for economic mobility, new Chetty study shows

We're not 50th out of 50 anymore.

Charlotte moved up a dozen spots to No. 38 among U.S. cities for upward mobility in a update, shared exclusively with Axios, to a national ranking that stunned and galvanized the city a decade ago.

Why it matters: Children born in Charlotte have increasing opportunities and a greater chance to rise out of poverty today than they did in previous generations, the research suggests.

Driving the news: Economist Raj Chetty and his Harvard research group Opportunity Insights will release the complete study on Thursday, local nonprofit Leading on Opportunity tells Axios.

• The paper is titled "Changing Opportunity: Sociological Mechanisms Underlying Growing Class Gaps and Shrinking Race Gaps in Economic Mobility." It uses anonymized federal census data and tax returns to track people born in 1978 and 1992, and examines their income in adulthood at 27 years old.

The big picture: Charlotte actually made the third-most progress from the Gen X cohort to the Millennial cohort among the 50 metros in Chetty's research, per Leading on Opportunity.

• Mecklenburg is the only county where low-income white children did not experience any decline in economic mobility.
• Specifically, the report notes the difference between Charlotte and Atlanta. "Both had low levels of mobility for children born in 1978," the report says. "By 1992, mobility improved substantially in Charlotte. ... In contrast, mobility remained low in Atlanta for both groups."
• Atlanta is the new No. 50. Raleigh was also lower on the list, at No. 41.

Flashback: When the " Land of Opportunity Study " dropped in 2014, it was a bombshell wake-up call for city leaders. The study tracked people born into poverty in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and examined their tax returns when they reached in their early 30s. It found that Charlotte kids in families with $27,000 annual incomes were, on average, earning less than their parents did — $26,300 — as adults.

• In some circles, people were baffled and embarrassed that a city with considerable wealth would end up dead last on the list.
• For others, the findings were an overdue acknowledgment.

The big picture: Civic and corporate leaders banded together over the coming years to pen solutions. Momentum picked up after the police killing of Keith Lamont Scott sparked protests in 2016.

• Mecklenburg County committed to creating universal pre-K, and the city passed a series of $50 million bonds for affordable housing efforts. The private sector raised a matching $50 million for housing. This year, voters will be asked to agree to a $100 million housing bond for the first time.
• Corporations based in Charlotte aligned their philanthropic giving with the strategies outlined in the local Opportunity Task Force report , published in 2017. Four years later, the Mayor's Racial Equity Initiative launched with a promise to raise $250 million to bridge the digital divide, enhance Johnson C. Smith, encourage more diverse workforces, and invest in underserved corridors.
• "It's been incredibly inspiring to see what's transpired in Charlotte," Chetty told a crowd of Charlotteans in November.

By the numbers: Household incomes between the 1978 and 1992 groups changed by 5% in Charlotte, from $27,000 to $28,000. The national average decreased 4.2%.

• In other words, a native Charlottean who's about 30 years old today is more likely to be in a better financial position than a Charlottean who was about 30 in 2014.
• The earnings gap between children born to low-income and high-income families narrowed slightly from $16,000 to $15,000.

Reality check: Many Charlotteans live in the same circumstances today that they did 10 years ago, says Sherri Chisholm, executive director of Leading on Opportunity. The organization was formed in 2017 in response to the initial study. It tracks the city's progress with an online dashboard, called the Opportunity Compass.

• "It's gonna be hard to celebrate this moment," Chisholm says. "I think a lot about our responsibility to tell both sides of the story — that progress is possible and that it's happened. And we still have so many people who deserve more."

What they're saying: Chisholm hesitates to specify what would make the most difference in economic mobility. Instead, she stresses that collaboration amongst the Charlotte community is vital to tackling various needs.

• Those needs include more housing, an effective transportation system and access to child care.
• Charlotte is improving in key areas, except early care and education, Chisholm says, "which to a lot of people comes as a great shock given the level of investment that's gone into pre-K."
• Business leaders' involvement is necessary, too. Their voices were influential in the state's Medicaid expansion last year.
• "I want them to pick up the phone and call [state Senate leader Phil] Berger," says Tonya Jameson, director of civic engagement for Leading on Opportunity.

What's next : Now that Charlotte has risen in the ranking, the challenge for nonprofits like Leading on Opportunity is to ensure momentum doesn't die.

• Some, like city manager Marcus Jones , considered "50th out of 50" tag a sort of blessing in disguise, because they're not certain whether Charlotte would have taken the same aggressive initiative had it landed at No. 49 — or anywhere else but 50.
• "I don't ever think Charlotte will be on the bottom of the list again," Chisholm says. "We're proud and excited for 38. But what would it look like in the next 10 years for us to be even higher on that list?"

Editor's note: This story has been updated with more information from the new report.