2008 again? What NC Democrats say about Kamala Harris’ odds of replicating Obama win

A barrier-breaking candidate. A surge of enthusiasm. A campaign focused on positivity.

Some Charlotte-area delegates to next week’s Democratic National Convention see similarities between then-Sen. Barack Obama’s first campaign for the presidency and Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 run.

Harris will be the first Black woman, first woman of Asian descent and second woman ever to serve as a major-party nominee for president when she’s ceremonially nominated at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago Aug. 19-22 . If she defeats former President Donald Trump in November, she could join Obama as the second non-white person to hold the nation’s highest office.

Mecklenburg Democrats Chairman Drew Kromer says the “palpable” energy around Harris’ campaign since she took over the ticket from President Joe Biden could deliver North Carolina to Democrats for the first time since 2008.

“The ingredients are there,” said Kromer, one of more than 100 convention delegates from the state. “Obviously, that doesn’t mean it’s an automatic thing. We still have to put in the work to make a 2008 result.”

Others are less keen to make the comparison.

“It’s two different people and two different historical moments,” said state Rep. Diamond Staton-Williams, a Cabarrus County Democrat who’s another convention delegate.

From ‘hope and ‘change’ to ‘freedom’ and ‘joy’

North Carolina was a critical state for Obama even before his nominating convention. He defeated then-Sen. Hillary Clinton in the state’s 2008 primary . While Clinton didn’t drop out immediately after the loss, news outlets declared her campaign done after the defeat .

Obama’s campaign famously focused on “hope” and change” and remained focused on the Tar Heel State through the general election. The campaign’s efforts included frequent campaign stops, big spending on advertising and organizing in the field.

“We can bring change to America,” Obama told a crowd of more than 20,000 at an Election Day eve rally at UNC Charlotte in 2008.

Now, Harris is pushing her own positive message: “freedom” and “joy.”

“It’s palpable, the level of energy that we’re seeing,” Kromer said, adding Mecklenburg Democrats have seen an increase in volunteers and donations since the change in candidate.

Former Charlotte City Council member Larken Egleston, another DNC delegate, wasn’t working in politics in 2008. But he remembers the “tangible excitement” Obama’s campaign generated.

“I do think there are some parallels there,” he said.

As another “young, energetic” candidate, Harris, 59, “can advocate for change” in a way similar to Obama, said UNC Charlotte political science professor Eric Heberlig. Harris is more than a decade older than Obama was in 2008, but she’s younger than Trump, 78, and Biden, 81.

“That can be a means of appealing to voters who typically don’t vote, particularly minority voters and younger voters,” he said.

There are practical similarities, too. Harris brought in some Obama camp advisors as senior staff, including David Plouffe, who managed Obama’s first presidential run.

‘Two different historical moments’

Staton-Williams is more reluctant to compare Harris to Obama.

“I absolutely believe that this moment in time is one of jubilation and hope, similar to what was for Obama in 2008,” the Cabarrus County Democrat said. “I just don’t want to compare that. … They’re of equal importance and significance.”

Still, she feels “an energy and a fierceness” among voters rallying behind Harris.

The historic nature of Harris’ campaign is top of mind, Staton-Williams said, from reflecting on her own career as a Black woman in politics to getting excited to watch her grandmother vote.

“I’m excited for her, and I’m excited for us knowing what that looks like, how that momentum and mindset shift changes things, not only for people in my generation, but for younger kids,” she said.

Can Harris use 2008 ‘ingredients’ to recapture NC?

The state of the presidential race is “still in flux,” but the switch to Harris ”makes North Carolina more competitive than it was under Biden,” Heberlig said.

Harris is polling better against Trump in North Carolina so far. She’s trailing by an average of 3.2 percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics’ average . Biden was averaging about 6 points behind Trump. A poll released this week by the progressive group Carolina Forward, in partnership with YouGov, has Harris and Trump tied , with 6% of voters undecided and a margin of error of 3.9%.

Capitalizing on Harris’ early momentum requires organizing, Kromer said.

“We’re seeing the ingredients: volunteer engagement, financial engagement,” he said. “Our job at the Mecklenburg Democratic Party is to be prepared to absorb all of this excitement, get out the vote and go talk to people about what it is that Democrats are doing for them, how Democratic policies impact their life, why their vote is important.”

Democrats won by a narrow margin in 2008, just 0.32% . Republicans have carried the state in every presidential election since, but Trump posted his slimmest margin of victory in any state in North Carolina in 2020.

Obama benefited from a campaign infrastructure he built in North Carolina during the state’s primary. It included field offices throughout the state and an extensive voter outreach program, Heberlig noted.

Although she didn’t run in a primary, Harris inherited the Biden campaign’s infrastructure, which made early investments in North Carolina , including opening more than 20 field offices across the state .

On Monday, the Democratic National Convention announced its first paid media buy in the state since the switch: a series of billboards in Charlotte, Asheville and Raleigh.

Can Harris replicate Obama’s turnout performance in NC?

Despite rising enthusiasm from Democrats, N.C. Republican Party Chairman Jason Simmons previously told the Observer he’s still optimistic about his party’s chances in the election.

“The fundamental nature of this race doesn’t change, just because they replaced Joe Biden,” he said in early August. “Once the American public and especially North Carolina voters get to know her, Harris is going to be exposed for who she truly is.”

When Obama became the first Democrat to carry the state in a presidential race since Jimmy Carter, he benefited from high turnout among Black voters and young people . In 2008, B lack turnout was 73% and 63.9% among 18-25 year olds. Those numbers fell to 64.3% and 53% in 2016 , respectively, and 68% and 60% in 2020 .

Harris already has appeal to the same groups, Egleston said, noting the surge of support for her on the campuses of historically Black colleges and universities. Harris would be the first HBCU graduate to serve as president if elected, and her sorority, Alpha Kappa Alpha, launched its own political action committee this week to raise money for her campaign .

“I think that’s something that maybe hasn’t been covered as much, but I get the sense they’re galvanizing,” he said.

Staton-Williams says the campaign needs to find a way to relate to young people to get them to turnout in November, she said.

“Young people have to show up for young people,” she said.

Turnout in Mecklenburg, a deep blue population center in the state, will be critical to the election, Kromer said.

The county trailed statewide turnout in the 2020 presidential election by a margin of 71.9% to 75.4%. About 44.4% of Mecklenburg County voters participated in the 2022 midterm election — when Democrats hoped to flip a U.S. Senate seat. That was below North Carolina’s statewide voter turnout of 50.5%, and trailed other Charlotte-area counties and Democratic-leaning metro areas in the state.

“We can literally flip this stuff,” Kromer said.