Sam Dykstra breaks down White Sox' return for Dylan Cease: 'This is a pretty good haul'

The Dylan Cease rumors had died down for a bit but they picked back up and ultimately led to a trade with the San Diego Padres on Wednesday. The Chicago White Sox received three prospects and a relief pitcher for their ace, which seems like a pretty good return.

MLB Pipeline’s Sam Dykstra broke down the newest White Sox prospects while appearing on the Audacy original podcast “Baseball Isn’t Boring” on Thursday.

“I was of two minds with this. One, it’s a haul. Getting Drew Thorpe, Samuel Zavala, Jairo Iriarte, plus Steven Wilson,” Dykstra said (5:20 in player above). “Those are three really good prospects and a good reliever for Dylan Cease, who I think is a good pitcher but has had his inconsistencies at the major-league level.”

Dykstra had all three of Thorpe (fifth), Zavala (seventh), and Iriarte (eighth) among the Padres’ top 10 prospects prior to the trade. They all have high upside and you could see two of them in the majors as soon as this season.

“Drew Thorpe should probably be pitching in the majors at some point this season. Jairo Iriarte almost pitched in the majors last season. Samuel Zavala has already made High-A in his age-18 year, there’s some ceiling there,” he explained. “The White Sox have been, since last year’s trade deadline, stocking up as much talent as they can in remaking it. So they did that. On one hand, it is a haul.

On the other hand, though, Dykstra expected higher-tier prospects to be moved from the Padres. But that speaks to the strength of San Diego’s farm system more than anything.

The White Sox appear to be getting some exciting prospects for Cease.

“Drew Thorpe, it’s arguably the best changeup in all of minor-league baseball,” Dykstra said. “You might have some pause that we’ve seen guys with really, really good changeups make the majors and then kind of flatline from there... But the amount of swing and miss he was getting on that pitch alone was really special.”

Thorpe pitched 109 innings between High-A and Double-A in his first professional season, compiling a 2.52 ERA with 182 strikeouts and 38 walks. While most of that damage did come at the lower level, Thorpe went 4-0 in his five Double-A stars with 44 strikeouts and just five walks (and five runs allowed) in 30 ⅓ innings.

“He’s not going to have great velo, it’s like 88 to 92, so if the White Sox can squeeze out a little bit more, Thorpe has the ceiling of being a mid-rotation starter.”

While Thorpe could make his White Sox debut this season, the only position player Chicago received in the trade, outfielder Samuel Zavala, is a longer-term project.

“Zavala, like I said, super young, the Padres were always aggressive with him as they are with many of their prospects,” Dykstra continued. “His biggest strength is getting on base. He had a .391 OBP between Single-A and High-A last year. It’s an above-average hit tool. There’s a chance for him to get to average power.

“There’s nothing truly plus on the board I don’t think; he has a pretty good arm. But if you get a bunch of 50s and a few 55s, that’s pretty well-rounded outfielder with still some room to grow. There’s still an opportunity for him to get more power. I know the Padres were really pleased, he was starting to add more physicality in the offseason so now the White Sox get to enjoy that part of it.”

Zavala had 14 home runs and 22 doubles in 348 at-bats at the Class-A level last year, so there may be some power building there.

Lastly, right behind Zavala in Dykstra’s rankings is Iriarte, who is another pitcher that could be in the majors sooner rather than later.

“Jairo Iriarte, the Padres actually moved him to the bullpen in Double-A last season and if you look at the numbers you might think ‘That’s not a good sign if he’s already pitching in relief,’” he said. “I think they did that because they thought about skipping him over Triple-A and helping the big-league club in the second half and then the major-league team flamed out and they didn’t want to start the service time clock or throw him in the deep end that early.”

Iriarte posted a 3.49 ERA between High-A and Double-A last season with 128 strikeouts and 45 walks in 90 ⅓ innings.

“He’s got a really good fastball, it’s bordering on plus-plus. He’s got a low-80s slider that’s really good. That fastball’s mid-90s, it touches 98. His changeup can be above average as well,” Dykstra continued. “The control’s not quite there but I think he’s still kind of growing into his body, he’s only 22, he’ll be 22 for the entire season.”

Overall, the White Sox did pretty well in this deal.

“So you could look at come July and see Thorpe and Iriarte in that Chicago rotation, which would be a pretty good get alone, and then you have the long-term project in Zavala,” Dykstra concluded. “Like I said earlier, this is a pretty good haul.”