Why the Chicago Cubs Need to Sell at the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline

You're seeing it as much as I'm seeing it: articles highlighting potential big-league players the Chicago Cubs could trade for to upgrade their roster and make a playoff push. We've seen reports connecting Jack Flaherty to the Cubs among other talented rental options who could be available if their respective teams sell at or before the trade deadline.

Chicago has even made some minor moves to try to bolster its roster. The Cubs traded for reliever Tyson Miller , who has been a big win for the team. Recently, they signed recently-DFA'd bullpen arm Vinny Nittoli to try to duplicate their Miller success.

Here's the deal, though: the Cubs sure look like a team that should also be selling this season, not buying.

Face the Facts

1. The Cubs are 38-44, putting them in last place in the National League Central and sitting 10.5 games behind the first-place Milwaukee Brewers and four games back from a wild-card spot.
   
   
2. Chicago has the third-worst record in the NL and the eighth-worst record in all of baseball.
   
   
3. The Cubs have the third-worst team batting average and fourth-worst slugging percentage in the NL.
   
   
4. Chicago has 17 blown saves. The North Siders' bullpen consists of players like Colten Brewer (5.82 ERA), Mark Leiter Jr. (5.34 ERA), and Hector Neris (4.40 ERA).

Plain and simple: the Cubs aren't very good. To turn this team into a "contending" club, Jed Hoyer would likely need to trade for a quality catcher (or two), an upgrade at third base, and about three more bullpen pieces, including one or two high-leverage, closing-type arms. If they go that route, the Cubs would be tearing apart a promising farm system in an attempt to upgrade a roster that's nowhere close to being a threat to compete.

That feels like a bad idea. It may be frustrating from a fan perspective, but the Cubs are likely much better off selling to add some more close-to-MLB-ready talent and trying again next season. After the 2024 season, Chicago is shedding nearly $50 million in payroll with players like Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly, and David Bote coming off the books. Why not shed a bit more to align the organization for an aggressive offseason?

In-House Talent

The Cubs have some promising talent already at the MLB level or just a stone's throw away.

In terms of arms, Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Porter Hodge, and Tyson Miller are just a few names who have already pitched at a high level for the Major League team and can be part of this roster for the foreseeable future. That's not to mention top prospects like Cubs' No. 1 farmhand Cade Horton and fast-riser Michael Arias.

On the offensive side of the equation, the Cubs have a solid group of young, controllable talent. Nico Hoerner should be around for a while, Michael Busch has done well considering this is his first real professional season, Pete Crow-Armstrong is still budding with potential, and Alexander Canario has shown a lot of promise at the plate despite striking out frequently.

Down on the farm, outfielders Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcántara, infielders Matt Shaw and James Triantos, and catcher Moises Ballesteros are knocking on the door.

So Who Should the Cubs Trade?

The Cubs have a few different paths they can take as sellers. It depends on how aggressive they want to get with it. Just an assumption: I would think they don't want to tear it all down and try to rebuild from scratch. I'd say Chicago still wants to contend in the near future.

If the Cubs are exploring minor moves, a few names jump to mind. Drew Smyly who has been performing a little bit better out of the bullpen, is a reasonable trade candidate. A lefty with a 3.81 ERA who can pitch multiple innings and has a mutual option for 2025 could be attractive for some mid-tier prospects or high-potential, lower-level guys. Hector Neris could be interesting to a team that thinks it could get him back to form — possibly by taking him out of the closer role. Hell, a team may take a flier on David Bote for infield depth, but the Cubs wouldn't get much back.

There are also somewhat blocked prospects Chicago could look to move. My mind goes to Matt Mervis, blocked at first base by Michael Busch and Cody Bellinger. One could even make an argument for Alexander Canario with all the outfield prospects the Cubs have coming up the pipeline. There are also lesser-known names like BJ Murray Jr., a high-quality minor-league bat who I don't think the Cubs should move on from, and Christian Franklin, another outfield prospect having a decent season for Double-A Tennessee in his age-24 season.

If the Cubs want to get more aggressive, they can make some moves that may be less popular. Obviously, Bellinger would be a hot commodity on the trade market. He's on a three-year deal but is almost guaranteed to opt out of his contract after another successful season in which he's slashing .271/.331/.428 to rebound from a slow start. Contending teams could give up a solid showing of prospects to acquire the 28-year-old slugger.

Additionally, Ian Happ is having a down season with a .228/.339/.408 slash line but provides a quality bat and solid defense in left field while being under contract until 2026. It's reasonable to envision a team taking a chance on Happ's bat coming around, especially given the extra team control that comes with his contract.

Then there's fan-favorite Mike Tauchman, who is cheap, has a few years of arbitration left, and is slashing .259/.359/.382 . He could step into any team's outfield as a starter or a fourth outfielder due to his ability to play all three positions.

Right-hander Jameson Taillon has become the starter the Cubs envisioned when they signed him to a four-year, $68 million contract in 2023. In 68.1 innings pitched, Taillon has a 2.90 ERA and 1.27 WHIP and has walked just 16 batters. Like Happ, Taillon is under team control until 2026. He has a 10-team no-trade clause, but my guess is he'd be fine going to a contender. With the premium placed on pitching, Taillon could also bring the Cubs a potential haul.

Which Way, Jed Hoyer?

I reckon the Cubs would be more likely to take a less aggressive route to try to retool instead of rebuild. I could still see Bellinger potentially on the move given the near certainty that he'll opt out after this season and the fact that the Cubs look like complete non-contenders. Other than that, the Cubs should take advantage of the few resources they have to offer without blowing up their roster for the next few seasons.

It's time to sell.

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