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Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions
By Ethan Matthew,
17 days ago
The Chicago Cubs (39-45) finish their 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers (49-34) Sunday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Brewersodds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 5-4
The Brewers and Cubs may be on the opposite sides of the NL Central standings, but against each other the series is much closer.
After a 4-2 win for the Brewers in Game 1, the Cubs came back to win 5-3 on Saturday. The Cubs bats came alive on Saturday as every starter except C Tomas Nido reached base. A 2-run HR by LF Ian Happ was the difference.
Cubs at Brewers projected starters
RHP Kyle Hendricks vs. RHP
Freddy Peralta
Hendricks (1-5, 6.87 ERA) makes his 10th start, and 15th appearance. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 57 2/3 IP.
Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 5-1 road loss vs. the San Francisco Giants Tuesday
2024 road splits: 0-3, 7.50 ERA (30 IP, 25 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 5.1 K/9 in 7 games (5 starts).
Career vs. Brewers: 10-8, 3.54 ERA (196 IP, 77 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 35 games (34 starts).
Peralta (5-4, 4.03 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 in 87 IP.
Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 6-3 home win against the Texas Rangers Monday
2024 home splits: 2-1, 4.74 ERA (38 IP, 20 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 12.3 K/9 in 7 games.
Career vs. Cubs: 5-2, 3.34 ERA (70 IP, 26 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 13 K/9 in 17 games (12 starts).
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Moneyline (ML): Cubs +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Brewers -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-145) | Brewers -1.5 (+120)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Cubs at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 8, Cubs 3
After a loss, the Brewers have been able to bounce back the following game, winning 60.6% of the time (20-13). And the Cubs, who haven’t won often, struggle to build off of their success. They post a 34.2% win rate after a win (13-25).
But at the current price it is best to PASS and look to the run line.
After a win the Cubs have the worst record in baseball against the spread. They cover just 31.6% of the time (12-26). I like the Brewers at plus money to bounce back.
LEAN BREWERS -1.5 (+120).
Milwaukee has the 2nd-best Over record at home this year (22-13-4). On top of that, Peralta has a higher ERA at home (4.74) than he does on the road (3.49). The sportsbooks are expecting a higher scoring game and I agree.
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