Drew Thorpe's Resurgence: Overcoming Early Struggles and Proving His Worth

June 16th was a disastrous day for Drew Thorpe. In his second big league start, he would last just three and one-third innings, surrendering six hits, eight runs (seven earned), walking five, and striking out none. It was certainly a humbling experience for the Chicago White Sox No. 3 rated prospect as he wasn't even a full week into his big-league career.

The Diamondbacks, while struggling thus far in 2024, have one of the better offenses in the sport. They rank 11th in the league with a 107 wRC+, and they gave the inexperienced Sox hurler a harsh lesson about what it takes to pitch at the big-league level. On that Sunday, Thorpe would only throw 31 of his 60 pitches for strikes, which should tell you plenty about the subsequent results. Much has been talked about Thorpe's fastball velocity being below league average and his need to command the strike zone, even more so than pitchers who have premium stuff. He found out first-hand what would happen to him if he wasn't able to command the strike zone and allow him to utilize his plus-plus changeup.

Thorpe's fastball and cutter on this day were battered and bruised all over Chase Field. His four-seam fastball yielded an average exit velocity of 97.1 MPH and a healthy .563 xwOBA. The cutter fared even worse yielding a gaudy .803 xwOBA. Needless to say, Diamondback hitters were all over his fastball variants. Which raises an interesting question, was Thorpe tipping his pitches in some manner? Or was the success against these offerings simply a function of not being ahead of hitters enough to get to the aforementioned change-up that still produced quality batted-ball results on this day?

Whatever took place in the Arizona desert a few weeks ago, sparked some kind of change. In the three outings since Thorpe has pitched 18.1 innings and generated far better results. He's pitched to a 1.47 ERA , 3.47 FIP, and, more importantly in my mind, because he doesn't miss bats with great regularity, yielded a meager .253 xwOBA. For me, the quality of contact against Thorpe will be very telling. He's a throwback pitcher of sorts. He will pitch to contact and rely on his defense more often than not to send hitters back to the dugout.

For as hard as his fastball variants were crushed by Diamondback hitters, they have fared much better in his last three outings. In those starts against three admittedly poor offenses, Thorpe's four-seam fastball has yielded a .300 xwOBA while the cutter has produced a .224 wxOBA.  Those numbers are right where they need to be for a pitcher like Thorpe.

Despite having only a 56.8% first-pitch strike percentage, which is close to 4% below league average, the rookie hurler has been around the strike zone enough to utilize his change-up to prevent hitters from getting the barrel of the bat on the baseball. This is paramount to Thorpe's success going forward. If he is able to get ahead of hitters at a greater clip, he will be able to dictate the at-bats and feature a change-up that we have all seen has the makings of an elite pitch.

Rising To The Occasion

We all know the Sox are at the bottom of their competitive cycle. Theoretically, and believe me, this is very theoretical, this should be the bottom for this team. I know like most of you there is always the fear that if anyone can sink lower it's the Sox, but there have to be limits even for them. If this team ever has aspirations of playing meaningful baseball again, they will have to begin beating that team from just south of Canada.

You all know I hate the Twins with every fiber of my being, so seeing the Sox lose all 8 games they've played against them to this point makes me sick to my stomach. If Drew Thorpe is going to be a member of this rotation that will be relied upon when the games matter again someday, he will be expected to help this team beat the Twins. So, Thorpe now will have the second early test of his big-league career. The Twinkies come into this game with a 116 wRC+, which ranks 4th in all of baseball. We've seen it through 8 games already, this team can hit.

If Drew Thorpe is the pitcher that prospect evaluators believe he is, there's no better time to show it than against your most hated division rival and the team that has been embarrassing you consistently for much of the last two decades. For Drew Thorpe to have a quality outing and keep Minnesota's vaunted offense at bay, he will have to command the strike zone. His change-up/fastball combination has to be on point and he will need to ensure that Twins hitters aren't sitting dead read on the fastball variants he will bring to the table.

We've seen significant improvement from the rookie in this department in his last three outings, but this is a different animal he will be up against. These starts against Detroit, Colorado, and Miami were the 25th, 28th, and 30th-ranked offenses in the league by wRC+. Minnesota represents an entirely different class of competition that Thrope will have to overcome.

The hope is that whatever took place against Arizona a few weeks ago was a blip on the radar, a learning experience for a pitcher that hadn't even been able to get comfortable with big-league life. Drew Thorpe has been able to utilize his fastball variants to improve success in recent outings and it will be needed against an offense like the Twins that feasts on fastballs, in particular. If Thorpe is able to maintain control of the strike zone, that tantalizing change-up of his can be the true weapon we've all seen it be since his arrival.

Drew Thorpe has given Sox fans a glimmer of hope in an abysmal season that still has two and a half months left to go. His continued development is one of the most important takeaways from the remaining 69 games on the schedule. If the Sox are to ever give us meaningful baseball again, they have to start beating Minnesota and Drew Thorpe has to be at the epicenter of that.

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