Knowing the Enemy: Bears vs. Packers Preview

The Chicago Bears must learn the roster, schemes, and tendencies of the Detroit Lions , Minnesota Vikings , and Green Bay Packers. In the NFL season, those divisional opponents make up 35% of the schedule. Division games matter more. That's why Bears On Tap is taking a more in-depth look at the Bears' divisional opponents heading into the 2024 NFL season, finishing out with the Packers.

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“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Green Bay Packers Roster

On the most recent episode of Bears On Tap, we were joined by Paul Noonan , writer for Acme Packing Company . This article is heavily based on our conversation with Paul. While this article summarizes parts of that conversation, I highly suggest you watch or listen to the full interview, as the article simply cannot hit the same level of detail.

2024 Green Bay Packers Objective

The Packers' goal for 2024 is to win a Super Bowl (BOOO!!!). In 2023, the Packers were probably ahead of schedule as they won a playoff game and came close to playing in the NFC Championship game. With perceived upgrades at defensive play-caller and another year of experience for their young offense, there's reason to believe the Packers are as close as any NFC team to the Super Bowl.

Green Bay Packers' Biggest Strength

The depth of the offense is the largest strength for this Packers roster. Last year's team was the youngest offensive unit to ever win a playoff game, with many of the key players being 26 years old or younger. Green Bay's depth is most apparent in the wide receiver room, where it's hard to differentiate which players are more talented than others.

At receiver, Romeo Doubs has been the Packers' stable possession receiver, while Jayden Reed led the team in yards last season as a quick-twitch slot receiver. Even though Reed led the team in yards, Bo Melton actually led the team in receiving yards per game. Meanwhile, Dontayvion Wicks led the league in multiple separation metrics in 2023. The highest drafted of these players, Christian Watson, is the best athlete of the group and poses the largest threat when on the field.

While the depth is most apparent at the receiver position, it's also adequate at the tight end position and the offensive line. This Packers offense can play with a next-man-up mentality that few teams can replicate.

Green Bay Packers' Biggest Weakness

There are a few lingering items that could hold the Packers back in 2024. The first is the chance that the Packers are overrating Jordan Love based on a small sample size of excellent production. Love was incredible in the second half but struggled through the first half of last season. While Paul mentions that it's probably realistic to view Love as a low-end top-10 QB, he also stated that there's a non-zero chance that the league will figure out Love, leading to a step back in 2024.

The second big question is on the defensive side. Hiring a new defensive coordinator doesn't automatically fix the team's existing issues. While Mark Hafley seems likely to be better than Joe Berry for the Packers, they still have roster weaknesses at cornerback. Jaire Alexander is very good, but he tends to miss time with injuries.

After Alexander, the cornerback room has a lot of question marks between Carrington Valentine, Eric Stokes, Corey Ballentine, and Keisean Nixon. While some have shown promise, they're not players you look to build your defense around. If Alexander goes down, this part of the roster becomes a major concern. Against the Bears, the Packers will surely have their hands full trying to contain DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze.

What Is the Packers' Offensive Scheme?

Matt LaFleur is one of the best offensive coaches in the NFL. His concepts are somewhere between Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. He doesn't lean as heavily into heavy personnel groupings as Shanahan, but he also doesn't play as much 11 personnel as McVay.

Paul did mention that he expects to see the Packers get a little bit heavier in their groupings in 2024, but he also wondered how you manage that with the depth in the wide receiver room. LaFleur's offense features a lot of motion, play action, and misdirection to generate easy, open throws for the quarterback.

A good portion of Green Bay's offensive production boils down to playing in a good system and executing it properly. Adding to it is Jordan Love's impressive physical skill set. He has the tools to create offense when the structure breaks down. Over the first half of the 2023 season, Love struggled when things broke down. But around mid-season, he started making more plays with his legs and arm pliability.

That ability to make plays outside of structure opened up the offense and made the Packers hard to stop. His ability to continue improving outside of structure will be the difference between him being a middle-of-the-road passer or one of the better passers in the league.

How to Attack the Packers' Offense

It's difficult to attack this Packers offense effectively. But, you could find success by daring the Packers to run the football essentially every play. Similar to the San Francisco 49ers, the Packers want to run the ball often. But this offense doesn't have a player like Christian McCaffrey.

When he was healthy, you could argue that Aaron Jones carried the football at a similar efficiency to Christian McCaffrey. Josh Jacobs is the new lead back, though. If Jacobs lives up to his contract, this strategy might not work. But if he's the player he has been for three of his five NFL seasons , it could bear fruit.

Behind Jacobs, the Packers have AJ Dillon and Marshawn Lloyd. Dillon has struggled to find quality footing at the NFL level while Lloyd is a dynamic runner with severe fumbling issues. The more touches you can force on Dillon and Lloyd, the more chances you have to get stops, force takeaways, and put the Packers in compromising positions.

Ultimately, Paul's strategy against the Packers would be to play dime often, daring them to run the football. Make Jordan Love continually RPO check to run plays and see if your defense can shut that down enough to limit the scoring. With the presence of Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon, the Bears could have more flexibility to play light and still play the run well enough.

What Is the Packers' Defensive Scheme?

The Packers are undergoing a total conceptual overhaul defensively. Their previous coordinator, Joe Berry, had an old-school, bend-but-don't-break philosophy. He preached keeping everything in front of the players and playing it safe more often than not. That type of defense can work when executed well. But the Packers version was rarely executed well, as they allowed big plays often.

Enter new defensive coordinator Mark Hafley. His style is more of a hyper-aggressive, risk-taking brand. The Packers will aim to keep things simple with more one-gap run reads and allowing players to be aggressive in making plays. Conceptually, they'll be more okay with taking chances and losing. But the idea is that risk-taking will pay off more often.

Additionally, the new scheme should mean more man coverage. While that might not go well for the weaknesses in Green Bay's cornerback room, the players seem excited about playing more man coverage.

How to Attack the Packers' Defense

The first thing Paul would do to attack the Packers' defense is test defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt with the run game. He's a player who can be moved out of run lanes, allowing the offense to pick up chunk yards. The Packers will be forced to answer with extra linebackers on the field, opening up the downfield play-action attack.

You can also attack Rashan Gary as a run defender. He tends to be overaggressive in his run pursuit, getting too far upfield. Even on a more aggressive defensive front, Gary and Wyatt should remain vulnerable to thoughtful and well-executed running concepts. The Detroit Lions have done an excellent job of this in recent years.

In the passing game, the man to target is Eric Stokes (if he's on the field). Put your best receivers in motion to isolate them against Stokes. According to Paul, the only way to stop that attack is to take Stokes out of the game.

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