On the footsteps of disastrous Hurricane Helene, Florida is bracing for Hurricane Milton which reached Category 5 status Monday, then dropped to Category 4. The Weather Channel expects winds to maintain hurricane status as Milton crosses the state between Wednesday and Thursday.
Assuming the damage is manageable, Saturday afternoon's game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and UCF Knights in Orlando should be safe weather-wise. By Friday, Milton is forecast to move from the Gulf of Mexico through the state to the Atlantic Ocean. Friday's weather calls for cloudy with a 40% chance of rain with game day Saturday generally sunny with a high of 83.
"Last couple weeks have been crazy," UC coach Scott Satterfield. "(We) hope for the best his week for all those folks in Florida. Our people are in contact with the Big 12 office as well as Central Florida. As of right now, we're going to go down on Friday and play Saturday. What happens between then is going to determine what we're doing."
What UCF coach Gus Malzahn said of the weather issues
The Orlando airport announced it was stopping commercial operations at 8 a.m. Wednesday. Friday and the weekend look safe by air, but traffic could be an issue depending on storm damage, evacuations and/or people returning to their homes.
"We're trying to stay in our routine best we can," Malzahn said Monday. "We'll adjust with it. We'll have a plan no matter what happens. The main thing is to make sure our players are taken care of and all the people in our program."
The Knights had planned practices Tuesday and Wednesday morning. UC's equipment truck will make the drive. In Tampa, Friday's USF game with Memphis has been moved to Saturday at 3:30 alongside the UC/UCF game in Orlando.
"I know the hurricane is a very big deal and a lot of families and places are getting affected by it," UC quarterback Brendan Sorsby said. "Prayers out to them. If we're able to play on Saturday, I'm very excited about that. We're preparing like we are playing on Saturday."
After a bye week is UC healthy or not?
The sidelines in Lubbock near game's end vs. Texas Tech looked like a MASH unit as running backs Corey Kiner, Evan Pryor and Manny Covey plus receiver Xzavier Henderson had all come off the field at one point or another.
Satterfield said Tuesday he anticipates those injured to play with the exception of defensive lineman Cam Roetherford who left the Texas Tech game early. Helping the defense is the return of starting linebacker Jonathan Thompson.
UCF has had their own roster moves after four games
Several Knights departed before UCF went to Gainesville to play Florida. Among those were former UC defensive back Bryon Threats who transferred in the offseason. Also calling it a season were receiver Xavier Townsend, defensive end Kaven Call, offensive tackle Wes Dorsey, safety Williams Wells and kicker Colton Boomer.
Former UC running back Myles Montgomery didn't play at Florida and could be lost for the year with a lower leg injury. That leaves last year's leading tackler for UC, Deshawn Pace , as the lone familiar face set to play for the Knights Saturday. Pace leads UCF with 27 tackles, one tackle for loss and two interceptions.
Satterfield says no Bearcats opted to transfer after four games. As for the former Bearcats on the Knights, he said they focus on the team they're playing against, not a single person.
How to watch Cincinnati Bearcats vs. UCF Knights
When: Saturday, Oct. 12 at 3:30 p.m.
Where: FBC Mortgage Stadium (45,301)
TV/Radio: ESPN2/700WLW
Series: UCF leads 5-4 (Knights won 28-26 last year)
Coaches
UCF: Gus Malzahn (fourth year, 27-18)
Cincinnati: Scott Satterfield (second year 6-11, 82-59 overall)
3 keys to a Cincinnati Bearcats victory
1. Hold UCF's R.J. Harvey under 100 yards
The 5-foot-8, 195-pound senior ran for 164 yards and three touchdowns against the Bearcats last season at Nippert in a game UCF held onto win 28-26. That broke a five-game losing streak for the Knights.
In UCF's back-to-back losses to Colorado at home and Florida in Gainesville, Harvey was held to 77 and 75 yards, respectively. Last season in three of their losses (Texas Tech, Baylor and Kansas State) he also missed the century mark. The Knights have the No. 4 rushing offense in the country so it's crucial they do a better job on Harvey than they did at Texas Tech against Tahj Brooks .
"With the bye week we had a little extra time to prepare to focus and lock in on the run game," UC linebacker Jake Golday said. "We know Tahj Brooks had a great game against us and we don't want that to happen again. We've been locking in on the run and being more physical."
2. Get a rush on UCF quarterback K.J. Jefferson
You may remember the 6-foot-3, 247-pound quarterback from a couple of years ago when No. 19 Arkansas defeated then-No. 23 UC. Behind center for the Razorbacks , Jefferson threw for three touchdowns and ran for another as the Hogs handed the Bearcats an opening week loss 31-24.
The last two weeks, Jefferson's been sacked five times each in losses vs. Colorado and Florida. It's easier said than done, Defensive coordinator Tyson Veidt's 3-3-5 has 10 sacks on the season, but there were none in the vs. Texas Tech.
Statistically, UC's Brendan Sorsby is better in pass efficiency (No. 17 in NCAA FBS), touchdown passes (No. 18) and passing yards per game (No. 10). Jefferson is the bigger rushing threat and had 76 yards in the loss to Colorado, but was held to -18 Saturday at Florida.
"We have to do a great job of tackling," Satterfield said of the Knights. "You've got to slow the running game down and make them one-dimensional. Everybody that plays them tries to do that and they have a hard time doing it."
3. Seize the moment early
UC hasn't won at the "Bounce House" since 2020 when they held on for a 36-33 victory. Against Texas Tech they led 14-3 at one point and everyone recalls the 27-6 advantage on Pitt (now 5-0) before a fourth-quarter implosion. UCF is on a two-game skid with players transferring and could be vulnerable. Last year, they lost five in a row before coming to Cincinnati. If the Bearcats are healthy enough to get some early points up, they may be able to take the crowd out of the game.
If not, FBC Mortgage Stadium is not an easy place to play in come-from-behind mode.
Cincinnati Bearcats, UCF Knights to watch
Harvey and Jefferson are the keys to the offense. Harvey ran for over 1,400 yards last season and currently is No. 21 in the nation in yards per carry at 6.59. UC's Kiner is not too far off at No. 32 at 6.16.
The most passes Jefferson has thrown this season were 35 in the 48-21 surprise loss to Colorado where the Buffaloes were two-touchdown underdogs. Other than that he threw 22 at Florida and TCU, faring better against the Horned Frogs with a trio of touchdown passes. In UCF's opening two games against New Hampshire and Sam Houston State, he threw 14 and 15 passes, respectively.
UC's receivers should be up for the game as top catcher Xzavier Henderson is from Miami and Tony Johnson hails from Ocala. Running back Manny Covey and corner Jordan Young are also native Floridians.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. UCF Knights score prediction
In my season picks in August, I had UCF winning this at home based on the "Bounce House" advantage. The Knights are coming off a pair of losses and something seems off with the number of transfers. Plus, the weather issues could play a part and a UC team that wasn't as good as this one did outgain them last year.
Assuming a healthy backfield and healthy receivers, I think the Bearcats offense can move the ball against a team whose red zone defense is tied for No. 123 (last) with several teams. UC's defense was far from stellar at Texas Tech and UCF still is No. 11 in total offense with the Bearcats at No. 12. Points should be expected. I'm going to keep my final score but flip to the Bearcats who have a winnable chance.
Prediction: Cincinnati 31, UCF 28
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Scouting report: Cincinnati Bearcats at UCF Saturday as Florida deals with hurricane
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