This week saw thin margins in the presidential race polls as Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris complete their final few weeks of campaigning. The race has tightened, but who's leading in them?
With less than a month remaining until the 2024 presidential election, statewide early voting in Ohio kicked off Tuesday and will continue until Nov. 3.
Who is leading the polls in Ohio, Harris or Trump?
Ohio's polling average shows Trump carrying a slight lead over Harris in the state, according to polling data from The New York Times. As of Oct. 10, Trump is at 51%, while Harris narrowly trails at 45%.
Trump's odds of winning in Ohio are significantly higher at 92%, USA TODAY reports, based on bets placed on crypto trading platform Polymarket.
Who is winning the presidential election?
Here's how some of the major polling services see the race as of Oct. 8:
- ABC News Project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls at 48.5% to Trump's 45.9%, compared to Harris 48.1% to Trump 45.5% four weeks ago .
- 270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 2.7% over Trump, compared to Harris 0.9% over Trump four weeks ago.
- RealClearPolling shows the betting odds are in Harris' favor with a spread of +2.0 over Trump compared to Harris favor of +1.4 over Trump four weeks ago .
- Polymarket , a crypto-trading platform, is expressing odds by the betting public, in favor of Trump over Harris by 5.9 percentage points compared to Trump over Harris by 5.9 percentage points four weeks ago.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, at 9:10 a.m.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation , a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging, as different pollsters asking different varieties of the population can often draw higher margins for error, writes The Week .
According to Pew Research , confidence in the public's opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.
Key Ohio voting dates
Early voting is underway in Ohio. Here are some important dates ahead of the Nov. 5 general election:
- Oct. 29: Deadline for absentee ballot applications.
- Nov. 4: Absentee ballots returned by mail must be postmarked by this day.
- Nov. 5: Election Day.
- Nov. 9: Absentee ballots mailed on or before Nov. 4 must arrive at boards of elections by this day to be counted.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Who is leading in the 2024 presidential race? The odds have shifted. Here's the latest
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