Blue-Chip Ratio Suggests Clemson a National Title Contender in 2024

History suggests if a college football program has a blue-chip ratio of 50-percent or better, then it has a shot at hoisting the big trophy at the end of the season. A blue-chip prospect is defined as any recruit labeled as a four or five-star player coming out of high school.

Since the inception of the College Football Playoff in 2014, every national champion has been above that cutoff. Last season Michigan won it all with a blue-chip ratio of 54-percent. In 2022 it was Georgia at 77-percent.

Clemson’s 2016 team won it all with a ratio of 52-percent, which is still the lowest of any team to win a national title in the playoff era. Florida State’s 2013 team, one year before the start of the CFP, was at 53-percent, just one percentage point ahead of that Tigers’ team in 2016. Alabama’s 83-percent in 2020 is the highest of any team to win it all during that time span.

Heading into the 2024 season there are 16 teams that have a blue-chip ratio of 50-percent or better, according to CBS Sports’ Bud Elliott , and history suggests one of those teams will bring home the national championship.

2024 Blue-Chip Ratios

• Ohio State: 90-percent
• Alabama: 88-percent
• Georgia: 80-percent
• Texas A&M: 79-percent
• Oregon: 76-percent
• Oklahoma: 73-percent
• Texas: 72-percent
• LSU: 70-percent
• Notre Dame: 67-percent
• Clemson: 64-percent
• Florida: 63-percent
• Miami: 61-percent
• Penn State: 61-percent
• Southern Cal: 59-percent
• Michigan: 56-percent
• Auburn: 53-percent

The Tigers’ blue-chip ratio is down eight points from a year ago. Clemson was at 72-percent in 2023, the highest it’s been in the Dabo Swinney era.

Transfers are not included due to the small sample size, but surprisingly enough, when they are factored in, the blue-chip ratios at most schools tends to go down. Florida State is the exception in 2024. Without transfers, the ratio is 49-percent and with them it jumps to 53-percent.

“What does seem to track is that almost all teams see their BCR go down when transfers are included,” Elliott wrote. “That seems logically consistent with the idea that while some transfers are special players, the majority of them, even those taken by good schools, are being used to fill roster holes. Most of the sport’s truly elite players are recruited out of high school and retained by the school with which they signed.”

“Florida State is the largest positive mover, by far, when incorporating transfer ratings. The largest fallers are Texas A&M and Oklahoma, who took 40 and 30 transfers in the last two years, respectively, most of which were not high-end players.”

Elliott also noted that at some point he expects this trend to be bucked. That almost happened with Clemson in 2015, when the Tigers’ team that lost to Alabama in the national title game came in at under 50-percent.

“I don’t actually think that the Blue-Chip Ratio will hold forever,” Elliott also wrote. “Standards are made to be broken.”

“At some point, a team with maybe a high 40s number, a transcendent QB and great injury luck could bust this. It’s probably bound to happen. The closest was the Clemson team Alabama beat when Nick Saban successfully called for an onside kick to turn the tide of the CFP National Championship in 2015.”

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