Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers odds, picks and predictions

The Cleveland Guardians (56-32) and Detroit Tigers (42-48) begin a 4-game series Monday. First pitch from Comerica Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Tigers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 2-1

The Guardians posted back-to-back 5-4 home victories Saturday and Sunday against the San Francisco Giants after losing Friday’s series opener 4-2. Cleveland also won a pair of 1-run home games against Detroit back on May 6-8 in the season’s 1st series between these AL Central rivals.

While the Guardians have the best AL record and lead the Central by 6 games over the 2nd-place Minnesota Twins, the Guards are just 3-5 in the past 8 inside the division. Cleveland has cashed the Over in 5 of the past 6 games, but the Under is 10-5 in the previous 15 contests on the road.

The Tigers swept a 3-game interleague series at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati over the weekend, including 2 wins as underdogs. Detroit outscored Cincinnati 15-8 in the sweep, while the Under went 2-0-1. However, the Over is 5-2-1 in the Tigers’ past 8 outings.

At home, the Tigers have won 4 of the past 7 games, while the Under has cashed in 5 of the previous 7 outings. Detroit has won only 3 of the past 10 games against the AL Central, while the Over has cashed in 9 of the past 11 inside the division.

Guardians at Tigers projected starters

RHP Gavin Williams vs. RHP Keider Montero

Williams (0-1, 11.25 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has a 2.25 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 4.5 K/9 in 4 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 8-2 home setback vs. Chicago White Sox Wednesday in season debut
• 2023 road splits: 0-2, 2.48 ERA (29 IP, 8 ER), 1.14 WHIP, .188 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 14 BB, 28 K in 6 starts
• Career vs. Tigers: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 4 K in 4-2 home loss Aug. 18, 2023 in only appearance vs. Detroit

Montero (1-2, 6.60 ERA) makes his 3rd start and 4th appearance. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 15 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 4 K in 9-2 road victory vs. Minnesota Twins Wednesday
• 2024 home splits: 0-2, 9.35 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.62 WHIP, .286 OBA, 4 BB, 11 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance
• Has never faced Guardians

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Guardians at Tigers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:55 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML) : Guardians -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Tigers +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Guardians -1.5 (+105) | Tigers +1.5 (-130)
• Over/Under (O/U) : 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Guardians at Tigers picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 7, Tigers 4

Moneyline

The GUARDIANS (-150) are worth a play as moderate favorites in this series opener.

Cleveland has struggled against the Tigers (+125) in previous seasons, including going 2-4 in 6 games at Comerica Park last season.

However, the Guardians are playing tremendous baseball this season, and they’ve won 2 of the 3 meetings to date. Williams looked a little rusty in his first outing after injury, but Montero has been very giving. Take Cleveland in a potentially high-scoring affair.

Run line/Against the spread

If you’re more adventurous, GUARDIANS -1.5 (+105) on the run line is worth a roll of the dice.

Montero looked pretty sharp in Minnesota last time out, posting his 1st career quality start. However, he has been a disaster in front of the home fans, allowing 9 ER, 10 H and 4 BB in just 8 2/3 innings in 1 start and 1 relief appearance at Comerica Park. He should struggle against a solid Cleveland lineup with 2 All-Star starters, 3B Jose Ramirez and OF Steven Kwan .

Over/Under

OVER 8.5 (-110) might be the best play on the board in this divisional battle.

The Over cashed in 2 of 3 games in the first series in Cleveland, and the total went high in 2 of the final 3 meetings at Comerica Park last season, too.

The Over has hit in 7 of the past 9 games for the Guardians, while cashing at a 5-2-1 clip in the previous 8 outings for the Tigers, including Montero’s most recent start in Minnesota July 3.

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