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5 Best College Football Predictions Against the Spread: Week 1 Friday
By Pete Fiutak,
23 hours ago
There isn't a lot to choose from on Friday compared to a loaded Thursday night of games - or the storm that's coming on Saturday - but there are still six matchups four of them FBS vs FBS matchups.
As always, fewer games, fewer matchups and bets to really, really like, but that's the job - the best predictions against the spread are out there, and we need to find them.
(But tread very, very lightly on all of these ...)
Picks So Far: 7-3
Sep 2, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers mascot Bucky Badger performs prior to the game against the Buffalo Bulls at Camp Randall Stadium.
Duke's a bit of an unknown with a new coaching staff and plenty of new parts, but the defense should be able to shut down Elon and the offense has the upside to grind its way to at least 30 points, and more like 40.
The Phoenix hung around with Wake Forest in a 20-point loss last year, lost to Vanderbilt 42-31 to open up 2022, and ... none of that really matters. Go light here - if at all - but again, assume that Duke defense is solid.
TCU has the better and stronger team, and it should win, but it's still a road trip to a strange land against a team with enough firepower to make this interesting.
It's certainly possible that Stanford just doesn't have it. Different year, different team, but the Cardinal wasn't even close at home against UCLA last season, didn't have anything defensive at Oregon State, and lost at home to Cal by 12.
Sorry to be so wishy-washy about this - like the Duke pick - but this is a tad bit of a late night feel thing. This will end about 1:00 am TCU time.
Forgive the boring and lazy analysis - beyond the football field reality that Lehigh will struggle to hold up against the Army ground game - but this really is about what the FBS team historically does against the FCSer.
2023 Army beat Delaware State 57-0, the 2022 version beat Villanova 49-10, 2021 Army beat Bucknell 63-10, 2020 hung 55 on Abilene Christian and 49 on Mercer - but struggled against Citadel 14-9 against a similar style - 2019 rolled Morgan State 52-21 and VMI 47-6 ...
Yeah, this It Always Happens theory didn't work for NC State vs Western Carolina on Thursday night, but Army should go off.
Sort of like the Arkansas vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff game on Thursday night - and going with a theme for everything this thing is about when it comes to point totals - always like an over when it's reasonably possible that one side can take care of it all by itself.
Arkansas needed to stretch its legs a little bit after a rough 2023, and it hung 70 on UAPB. Oklahoma has to get off to a big start, and even with new parts in the mix this is still the program that put up 59 points or more four times last season.
Temple should be a bit worse than the version that allowed 45 or more in five of its last eight games last season.
1. Western Michigan at Wisconsin and Florida Atlantic at Michigan State
For those of you new to my bit, 1) we don't do parlays here, and 2) WE DON'T DO PARLAYS.
So no, I'm not saying you twozie the Big Ten teams on Friday night - count these as separate picks - but I always like the Week 1 Power teams with something to prove.
Wisconsin types are grouchy after a meh 2023. Western Michigan is better than last year's version, but the Badgers should play at a higher level than teams normally would for a bit of a layup game. To go cliché, call this a tone-setter.
How did Jonathan Smith's teams do at Oregon State against the mediocre? It rolled big at San Jose State to start last year, had no problems with San Diego State, beat Boise State by 17 to open up 2022, beat Hawaii by 18 in 2021 ...
After a brutal 2023, Michigan State has a ton of things to work on and Florida Atlantic should be in for a good year. The 12.5, though, it just light enough to go for it.
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