10 Best College Football Predictions Against the Spread: Week 5, The Top 5

Here's Part 2 of the 10 Best Predictions for Week 5.

If my the bottom part in the top ten was more about hunches, these are little more researched and thought out. Usually my gut has (bleep) for brains, but here's letting that battle play out in real time.

10 Best College Football Predictions Against the Spread: Week 5, Part 2

Week 5 CFN Expert Picks
Georgia at Alabama | Kentucky at Ole Miss
Minn at Michigan | Okla St at Kansas St
Nebraska at Purdue | Wisconsin at USC
Louisville at Notre Dame | Ark at Texas A&M
Colorado at UCF | Ohio St at Michigan St
Illinois at Penn St | Wash St at Boise St
Arizona at Utah | Oregon at UCLA

10 Best Predictions Against the Spread: Week 5, Part 1

5. Minnesota at Michigan

Line: Michigan -10.5
Pick: Michigan

I wanted to make this No. 1 but Michigan has hosed me this year a decent favorite, I don't trust this team, and my picks in the 1 slot have been blah so far.

This one's a simple call, and if it doesn't work, it'll be because something quirky happened.

That same Minnesota defense that got flattened by Iowa is about to get steamrolled by Michigan. There's no mystery here - run, rely on the defense, run more, assume the Minnesota offense continues to stall.

4. Eastern Michigan at Kent State

Line: Eastern Michigan -14.5
Pick: Eastern Michigan

I actually hope I'm wrong here.

I feel awful for the Kent State program and head coach Kenni Burns. They both had to start from less-than-bottom last year, and it's still a long, long climb up. It lost to St. Francis, got onside kicked by Tennessee in a 71-point loss, and Penn State was nice by only winning 56-0.

Eastern Michigan isn't good, but it did beat St. Francis 36-0 last week ...

3. Texas State vs Sam Houston

Line: Point Total 55.5
Pick: Over

I shouldn't put Texas State here - I haven't landed a punch with this team all year. Every time I think it's about to rip it up ... nah.

I'm all in on the atmosphere of this. These are two programs with a bunch upside in the expansion circles, the game is being played in NRG Stadium, and if I can crank the cliché meter to 11 - this is a Texas thing.

Both of these programs want so show off. Sam Houston's defense has been great against the blah, but the offense scored 31 or more in three of its four games, Texas State will play along, and this total that should be around 60ish seems a tad low.

2. Nebraska at Purdue

Line: Nebraska -10
Pick: Nebraska

One giant caveat to this pick. I'm assume Nebraska will quickly figure out that all it has to do is attempt to run, and it has this easily. QB Dylan Raiola is fabulous, but if the Huskers come in with a game plan to throw it 40 times, then this might not work.

It's the first road game for the Huskers. Don't let that freak you out.

They won their first three games - including Colorado - by double-digits, Purdue wasn't even close in its first two FBS games against Notre Dame and Oregon State, and yeah, I'll by into the idea that this really is a new and improved Nebraska team.

1. Wisconsin at USC

Line: USC -14
Pick: USC

This is here in the top spot because I have this strange belief that the betting public thinks Wisconsin is something it's not.

Everyone watched Michigan rumble all over USC late in the thriller last week, and the assumption is that it's Wisconsin - it's about to do the same thing.

Really, really, nope.

Luke Fickell is way, WAY overdue for a big performance out of his Badger team. But this new style of offense isn't pushing anything down the field, the running game is meh, and against Western Michigan and South Dakota the team was just awful at times, mediocre the rest of the way.

I'm a Wisconsin grad. I would love nothing more than to be wrong. I just don't think this team is very good.

You might have to wait until the very last few moments to get there, but the 14 feels like the market is confused.

- Week 5 Schedule, Predictions