Louisville vs Virginia Prediction, Game Preview, and Betting Lines
By Pete Fiutak,
17 hours ago
After a rough run for the program, Virginia deserved to have some fun. Outside of a home loss to Maryland, it’s having a blast with a great 4-1 start after taking down a dangerous Boston College team.
Now it’s really prove-it time, though, with three of the next four games on the road after this.
The Cavaliers need two more wins to get bowl eligible, but they might not be the favorite the rest of the way.
Louisville’s stash took a huge hit with back-to-back losses to Notre Dame and SMU, and now it has to go on the road for four of the next five games.
This about as must-win as it gets with Miami, at Boston College and at Clemson up next.
Oct 5, 2024; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers wide receiver JR Wilson (6) poses for a picture while warming up to playing against the Boston College Eagles at Scott Stadium.
Louisville vs Virginia How to Watch Date: Saturday, October 12, 2024 Game Time: 3:30 pm ET Venue: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA How to Watch: ACC Network Virginia (4-1), Louisville (3-2)
Virginia has been better at moving the chains, but Louisville should win on third downs, at least defensively.
Seventh in the nation in third down D, the Cardinals allow teams to convert fewer than 27% of their chances, and the Cavaliers have been at 27% or under in three of the last five games - but, again, they’re improving, hitting half of their tries against Coastal Carolina and 44% of their attempts against Boston College.
Even with a rougher last few games, Louisville has the passing game that Virginia hasn’t seen. Wake Forest and Maryland have decent attacks, but Tyler Shough and the Cardinals are more dangerous when they get going.
Just assume Virginia will give up 275 passing yards, but …
Why Virginia Will Win
Virginia has to get its own passing game moving.
It’s not just about all the yards and big plays - as much as those matter - but the completion percentage is a big deal.
It starts with the picks - those stopped. Anthony Colandrea gave up four in the first three games, but the offense hasn’t given away in the last two outings.
Louisville’s defense picked off two passes in the first two games and none since.
Again, the percentage matters. Virginia dipped below 60% once, and that was the loss to Maryland. Louisville has been dinked and dunked on to death, with Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard hitting 74% of his throws and the SMU quarterbacks connecting on 79% of their passes in the wins.
Louisville vs Virginia: Who Will Win
Virginia is coming off its most impressive performance of the season in that win over Boston College, and Louisville is sputtering and coughing with a defense that lost its mojo.
This is when the Cardinals start to get it back.
They’ll be a bit better throwing the ball to keep control down the stretch, and the pass rush that’s been so hit-or-miss will rise up when needed over the final few drives.
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