Five Potential College Football Playoff Teams You Don’t See Coming

These things always tend to work out and revert back to the norm.

There’s always a gag, there’s always a shocker, there’s always at least one - usually two after the first one - misfire that makes everything right with the world.

Or maybe in this new era of college football the strange really does happen.

You think the College Football Playoff committee had a problem with Florida State last year? What happens if several teams outside of the norm come knocking on the expanded 12-team door?

No, we’re not talking about 2023 Liberty here - it was 13-0 at the end of the regular season, but was 23rd in the final CFP rankings because it didn’t play anyone tougher than a bag of mush.

The five teams below - really six - have real wins, real records, and real chances to push for one of the 12 spots.

Over the ten years of the College Football Playoff, no Power Five - now Power Four - team that finished with 11 wins would've been left out of the current format, and only 2021 Pitt finished lower than 10 - that's because Cincinnati was in at the 4.

At least one of these five teams should be in the college football playoff mix until the end.

5. Army vs Navy winner

Record: Army 6-0, Navy 5-0
Realistic Best Case Final Record: 13-0 for each
Realistic Chance of Getting Into the College Football Playoff: Slim for Navy, Possible for Army
Remaining Games
Army: East Carolina, Air Force, at North Texas, Notre Dame, UTSA, Navy

Navy: Charlotte, Notre Dame, at Rice, at USF, Tulane, at East Carolina, Army

What happens if Army and Navy play twice?

Let’s start with the logistics, and they’re a mess.

Let's say both Army and Navy are 11-0 after November 30th. They’d play each other for the American Athletic Conference championship on December 7th, the next day the College Football Playoff matchups would be announced, and the Army-Navy winner would almost certainly be the Group of Five champion that gets the automatic invite.

That would basically be it. The scheduled Army-Navy game on December 14th is purely an exhibition.

Now let’s go with the real.

Both teams play Notre Dame. The Irish won’t totally wipe out any CFP shot for either one, but they can put a dent in the plans.

Navy already beat Memphis 56-44, and it gets Tulane, but it doesn’t have any Power Five games on the slate other than ND.

Meanwhile, Army (probably) has yet to play a team that will go bowling, doesn’t get Tulane or Memphis, and other than the Irish - and maybe North Texas - it doesn’t play a team worthy of getting the committee’s attention.

So here’s how to handicap this.

If either one is the unbeaten AAC champ, it’s in the College Football Playoff, do not pass go, do not collect any NIL money. It’s done. If either one is the 11-1 conference champ, it’ll have to hope the Mountain West champion - Boise State or UNLV - isn’t 12-1.

If comes down to the Notre Dame game. If either one wins that, then it’s Game On.

4. SMU

Record: 5-1
Realistic Best Case Final Record: 11-2
Realistic Chance of Getting Into the College Football Playoff: Lukewarm but if it goes 11-1, in.
Remaining Games: at Stanford, at Duke, Pitt, Boston College, at Virginia, Cal

SMU can absolutely find its way into the College Football Playoff.

SMU doesn’t play Clemson or Miami. Start with that whopper of a break, to go along with getting a bad Florida State a few weeks ago. The 34-27 win at Louisville, though, was the big breakthrough.

The 18-15 loss to BYU is suddenly looking far better, and the remaining schedule - while not a breeze - is just light enough to get through unscathed.

There’s almost certainly a reality check if the Mustangs get to the ACC Championship, but if it’s 11-2, there’s a real shot to slip in.

If it’s 11-1 and doesn’t get into the ACC title game - Miami and Clemson don’t play in the regular season - then assume it’s in. No way, no how, no chance will the CFP leave out an 11-1 Power Four team … maybe. If the Mustangs are 10-2, then no.

3. Washington State

Record: 5-1
Realistic Best Case Final Record: 11-1
Realistic Chance of Getting Into the College Football Playoff: Probably better than you think.
Remaining Games: Hawaii, at San Diego State, Utah State, at New Mexico, at Oregon State, Wyoming

Washington State would be the sentimental choice after losing its conference, but ...

Not having a conference championship to play for is a huge problem.

The Cougars beat a good Texas Tech team 37-16 and took down Washington 24-19 - those are two better wins than most teams can boast. And the one blip? A no-shame there 45-24 loss at Boise State.

They’ll almost certainly be favored the rest of the way, but getting past Oregon State on the road will be tricky. However, be shocked if they don’t win all the remaining games against the Mountain West teams by double-digits.

Again, there's no conference championship to play for, but 11-1 with two restaurant quality Power 4 wins might be enough to sneak in if there aren’t a slew of 10-2 Power Four conference options.

2. Iowa

Record: 4-2
Realistic Best Case Final Record: 10-2
Realistic Chance of Getting Into the College Football Playoff: Decent
Remaining Games: at Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, at UCLA, at Maryland, Nebraska

Iowa can get into the College Football Playoff, but it needs help.

The Hawkeyes should be favored in every game the rest of the way, and it might actually be better if they don't get into the Big Ten Championship.

Obviously they’d like to win the Big Ten title, but they’d probably get rolled by Ohio State, or Oregon, or any other team that would get in. At 10-2, though, they might just slip in if there aren’t a ton of other ten-win options.

It would also be a huge help if the two losses looked more acceptable. Iowa would love it if Iowa State ended up being a lock for the CFP - especially if it’s the Big 12 champion - and if Ohio State rips through everyone else after the loss to Oregon.

1. Texas A&M

Record: 5-1
Realistic Best Case Final Record: 11-1
Realistic Chance of Getting Into the College Football Playoff: Solid, but there’s work to do
Remaining Games: at Mississippi State, LSU, at South Carolina, New Mexico State, at Auburn, Texas

If Texas A&M owns home, it’s in the College Football Playoff.

The 41-10 win over Missouri ramped the chances up several notches.

There’s no Georgia on the Texas A&M schedule. There’s no Alabama, Ole Miss, or Tennessee. There’s Texas, but that’s the regular-season finale, and there’s LSU, but that’s home in three weeks.

South Carolina could certainly screw this all up in Columbia on November 2nd, and maybe Auburn pulls something out of its hat, but as long as Notre Dame keeps winning - and it will - that season-opening loss will be forgiven.

A&M is on the fringe at 10-2, and in at 11-1.