First-time buyer affordability at lowest point in four years

MOSES LAKE — That starter home may be out of reach a while longer, according to real estate market reports.

According to the University of Washington’s Washington Center for Real Estate Research, the Housing Affordability Index for First-Time Homebuyers statewide is at its lowest point since at least 2020. The index is calculated based on the average income and home price in a given area. The First Time Buyer HAI assesses the affordability of a house at 85% of the median price for a household with 70% of the median income and a reduced down payment. It’s predicated on the assumption that a household should spend 25% of its income for principal and interest on a mortgage. An index of 100 means that the average household has 100% of the necessary income; an index of 90 means that the household has only 90% of the necessary income.

Washington state has a First-Time Buyer HAI of 40 in the second quarter of 2024, the most recent date for which figures were available, according to the WCRER. That’s a decrease of 87.5% from the same time in 2020.

The Columbia Basin fared a little better in absolute terms, but the HAI for first-time buyers had dropped even more dramatically, according to the WCRER. Adams County’s first-time HAI was 59 in 2024 compared to 117 in 2020, a decrease of 98%. Grant County fared even worse over four years, going from 125 in 2020 to only 55 this year.

On a city-by-city basis, most of the communities in the Basin for which the WCRER had statistics followed the same pattern. Notable exceptions were Royal City and Mattawa, which both had significant drops but started out lower than the other communities.

Meanwhile, on the national stage, a study by the real estate analysis website Redfin showed that the average first-time homebuyer in the U.S. needed to earn $79,252 per year to afford a starter home. In the Seattle metropolitan market,the necessary income was $182,060, while the median household income for first-time home buyers was $126,310.

There is a bright spot, according to Redfin. Listings of starter homes nationwide were up nearly 20% from last year, compared to 4.1% for mid-range homes. Additionally, there is reason to believe that interest rates may soon drop, according to the WCRER, increasing home affordability.

“Although the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve Bank did not lower rates at its July 31 meeting, it suggested that it might do so in mid-September,” WCRER Director Steven Bourassa wrote in a report for the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. ‘“A weak jobs report, largely reflecting a growing labor force, combined with low inflation suggests that the Fed will indeed lower rates next month with additional rate cuts expected at subsequent meetings.”