Tropical rainstorm brewing in the Caribbean may hit Georgia. Will it turn into hurricane?

A disturbance is brewing in the Caribbean, well off from the U.S. mainland, but it may have adverse affects on the Peach State.

Water sea-surface temperature are 87 degrees, ripe for what is just a tropical rainstorm to become a major hurricane over the next several days.

Despite being unnamed and undeveloped, hurricane experts are predicting the likely-to-be-named Helene will make landfall in Florida’s Big Bend Thursday as a Category 2 hurricane and want people to prepare now.

“Now is the time to start preparing for a hurricane landfall along the Gulf Coast. Don’t wait for this storm to be officially named,” warned AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter in an email Sunday evening.

“Once it forms a circulation it could be off to the races,” AccuWeather Hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said in a news conference Monday morning. “We are very concerned about rapid intensification.”

The National Hurricane Center’s Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook said this storm will move northwest and has an 80% chance of forming into a hurricane in the next 48 hours, and a 90% chance of forming in the next seven days.

Da Silva said there are two likely path scenarios that all depend on a low pressure system over Arkansas.

“It will go closer to the middle upper Gulf coast, New Orleans, or Biloxi area if the steering winds stall or in the second scenario it will go further to the east if the jet stream dips.”

In either scenario, Florida’s Big Bend or Panhandle can expect storm surge and up to 12 inches of rain.. The current forecast leaves western Georgia, including Columbus, in a scenario for tornado risk, heavy wind gusts of up to 60 mph, and rain. The entirety of Georgia could be affected by adverse weather too.

The National Weather Service in Atlanta gave a warning on X, formerly Twitter, Monday morning. But the NWS said the path and severity are still uncertain.

Why are conditions so favorable?

Hurricane season lasts until Nov. 30, and warmer waters make storms more likely.

“Tropical systems only need about 80 degrees to form,” DaSilva said in the press conference. “The depth of the warm water is about 300-400 feet below sea surface.”

Additionally there is no dry air in its path and no wind sheer, which DaSilva said is favorable for rapid intensification.

Rapid intensification is defined as wind speed increasing by 35 miles per hour in a 24 hour period, and about 80% of hurricanes undergo this phenomenon.

AccuWeather Senior meteorologist and climate expert Brett Anderson weighed in on how much man-made climate change has played a role in warmer ocean temperatures.

“In recent years waters being more than 2 to 3 degrees above the normal mid-80s temperature is more the norm than unusual,” Anderson said. “Climate change is clearly playing a primary role, based on the longer term trends and the fact that the ocean heat content in the Gulf is at its warmest on record.”

This is a developing story and may be updated.