After a couple of turbulent years for fall enrollment during the pandemic, things were starting to look up for Ohio Dominican University.
The campus on Columbus' East Side saw a 30% increase in freshman enrollment between 2021 and 2023, offsetting two smaller enrollment classes during the pandemic and pushing total enrollment beyond pre-pandemic numbers. University leaders were feeling optimistic about this academic year.
Then the U.S. Department of Education fumbled the rollout of this year's new Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) form.
First, a massive overhaul of the application delayed the FAFSA by three months, eventually opening to students in late December. Then a slew of accessibility and computing errors put families, students and college financial aid officers in limbo for even longer.
Higher education:FAFSA applications drop by 40% as U.S. struggles to fix botched college aid rollout
John Naughton, Ohio Dominion's vice president of enrollment and student success, said his team normally starts getting financial aid packages out to students in November, within weeks of the FAFSA opening. But delay after delay has massively disrupted that timeline and this fall's enrollment goals, he said.
Even though college applications and submitted FAFSAs were both up this cycle, Naughton said completed FAFSAs are down. The number of students who have paid deposits to attend ODU this fall is down 15% compared to last year.
"We're still optimistic, but not being able to rely on historical data to understand where we are... there are a lot of unknowns," Naughton said.
Ohio Dominican is not alone in its trepidations. At a time of year when enrollment should be all but settled, colleges across Ohio and nationwide are just now getting caught up on sending financial aid packages to prospective students.
Some university leaders are waiting on admitted students to pay deposits and commit to a school, as many of those students and their families are finally getting the chance to run the numbers. Others are doing everything they can to fix errors on students' FAFSA applications and get them signed up for summer orientations. Many are worried that frustrated students most in need of financial aid will give up on college altogether.
FAFSA fallout could have 'domino effect' of consequences for colleges
While the botched FAFSA rollout impacted colleges and universities across the nation, there's a lot of variance in how schools are struggling, said David Hawkins, chief education and policy officer at the National Association for College Admission Counseling.
Well-resourced institutions, like large state flagship universities and Ivy League schools, are doing OK, Hawkins said. But small liberal arts colleges, especially those most reliant on tuition dollars, have seen the most uncertainty.
To say the least, Hawkins said, "it's been chaotic."
Hawkins said he and others at NACAC have two primary concerns from the fallout.
The first is for the colleges. There are a lot of colleges out there for whom a small but negative change in enrollment can create substantial challenges, Hawkins said. Some NACAC officials have talked with university administrators whose enrollment goals are down upwards of 20%. Enrollment losses can eventually lead to potential cuts for programs, faculty and administrators.
The other concern is for the students, particularly those students who are most likely to fall out of the college pipeline, including low-income and first-generation college students.
"On the heels of COVID and the pandemic effect where we did see a lot of students drop out of the pipeline," Hawkins said, "we're worried that this could create a sort of domino effect."
'I have no choice but to stay encouraged'
Mary Cannon, director of financial aid at Capital University, said she's also worried about losing vulnerable students.
Like ODU, Capital's deposits are also down by 12%, and the Bexley campus was about 4.5% off its enrollment goals as of late June. Among the admitted students who haven't paid their deposits, Cannon said half of them are Pell Grant -eligible students.
Cannon said it's been especially frustrating having limited means to help students correct errors on their FAFSAs. Financial aid professionals have historically had access to make certain changes on behalf of students to help move their applications along.
That's not the case this year. To make matters worse, Cannon said, high schools are out for the summer, making it more difficult to get in touch with those high-risk students and their high school counselors.
Deneene Merchant, director of financial aid at Columbus State Community College, said she's worked through the five stages of grief a few times over thanks to the FAFSA rollout. Merchant said the college is "very close" to being done packaging financial aid offers, but delays have definitely affected Columbus State students.
This cycle, Columbus State received more than 15,000 processed forms, known as Institutional Student Information Records, or ISIRs. Most schools use the documents to generate students' financial aid offers. The community college is down from about 19,000 ISIRs last year.
Merchant said Columbus State is still within reaching its goal of a 3.5% enrollment increase (excluding College Credit Plus students), despite the delays.
"I have no choice but to stay encouraged," she said.
Financial aid estimates and outreach are helping some campuses
Even in tumultuous times, some Ohio universities have been able to ease some FAFSA headaches for students and college administrators.
Adam Smith, vice president of enrollment at Ohio Wesleyan University, said the university had enrolled 500 new incoming students as of late June, both beating last year's total and this fall's goal. He credits the university's communications department for staying in touch with families throughout the application process and its admissions office for being able to give students financial aid estimates before ISIRs came through.
While the estimates weren't an exact science, Smith said if students could provide their student aid index, then the university could give them a rough idea of what they could expect to pay with scholarships and grants.
In addition to financial aid estimates, Tammi Love — director of admissions and recruitment at Central State University, Ohio's only historically Black public university — said her school has relied on alumni and social networks to keep students engaged.
Central State encourages its admitted students to join a ZeeMee, a college-centric social media app. Love said students are able to make friends online, talk about their interests and build community all before they arrive on campus. The university also added more in-person and virtual orientation sessions earlier in the spring and later in the summer to give students more chances to enroll.
"It's more like a reunion when they show up," Love said.
The strategy is working, Love said. Around this time last year, Central State had 25 confirmed students enroll for the fall. That number is more than 400 students so far this summer.
Looking to this fall and beyond
U.S. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona told reporters at the Education Writers Association's annual conference in May that the education department is “acutely aware” of the obstacles it created this spring. Cardona reiterated that he expects a more-normal FAFSA cycle this October.
As tiring as this year's FAFSA process has been, Cannon at Capital said it's not too early to start talking about what next year will bring. That means schools need to start having conversations about what outreach they're planning with high schools this fall, what issues they're still facing with FAFSA and how to reach out to students who've fallen away.
"It's all about getting students to college," Cannon said. "If its Capital, that's wonderful. But the goal is to promote all of those things to get them to the finish line."
Sheridan Hendrix is a higher education reporter for The Columbus Dispatch. Sign up for Extra Credit, her education newsletter, here.
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