Connecticut population boom goes bust after Census error

U.S. Census numbers showing a population boom of more people moving into Connecticut from other states between 2021 and 2022 were incorrect, and it’s more likely Connecticut saw a net loss of 13,500 people to other states that year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and information posted on CT Data by Cynthia Willner and Jeff Borofsky.

Connecticut has long experienced a net migration loss as more residents move to other states than move from other states into Connecticut, but according to the original data from the American Community Survey (ACS) published by the Census Bureau, Connecticut saw a dramatic turnaround, gaining 57,000 residents from other states between 2021 and 2022.

The numbers were published by Connecticut media outlets (including Inside Investigator ) and lauded by Gov. Ned Lamont and other political leaders as proof of Connecticut’s turnaround, bolstered by numerous media reports of New Yorkers, in particular, moving into Fairfield County during the pandemic.

“Unlike our neighboring states which are losing population, Connecticut has gained population over the last few years,” Lamont said during his 2024 State of the State Address, a few months after the faulty data was released. “Today we have more people working, more people starting businesses, more people joining labor unions with better pay and better benefits, more of our graduates staying in Connecticut, and more out-of-staters wanting to move here.”

Unfortunately, all those figures were based on a series of mistakes, and the Census Bureau now says those numbers should not be used. Updated migration numbers won’t be published until new data is released next year, and CT Data says researchers should use figures showing Connecticut had a net loss of population between 2021 and 2022.

Researchers at CT Data noted that the 57,000 number differed wildly from the Population Estimates Program (PEP), which showed Connecticut had lost 13,500 people to other states that same year and raised the issue with the Census Bureau.

In response the U.S. Census Bureau issued an erratum showing there were multiple errors in the processing of the ACS data, including over-estimating the number of people moving to Connecticut from other states and Puerto Rico; under-estimating people moving out of Connecticut, and under-estimating people moving within Connecticut.

“Thus, Connecticut’s domestic in-migration was over-estimated and domestic out-migration was underestimated, combining to yield an inaccurately large positive net domestic migration estimate for Connecticut,” Willner and Borofsky wrote.

“It has to do with a data processing error that occurred due to the change from counties to county-equivalent planning regions,” Willner said when reached for comment. “Everyone who had reported a Connecticut county as their prior place of residency a year ago was excluded from the pool of donors for filling in missing migration data. Basically, it resulted in moves from outside Connecticut being over-estimated, movers within Connecticut under-estimated and movers from Connecticut to other states were under-estimated.”

For now, Willner and Borofsky said researchers should rely on the PEP data, which shows a net loss of 13,500 people between 2021 and 2022.

“It is safe to assume that we actually had negative net domestic migration that year,” Willner said, adding that this doesn’t factor in foreign migration which often boosts Connecticut’s numbers. “In terms of migrating between different states in the U.S. it is more likely negative net migration of about 13,000.”

The Internal Revenue Service showed a net migration loss and net adjusted gross income loss for Connecticut during that same year. Between 2021 and 2022, the IRS shows Connecticut saw a net loss of 5,909 individuals moving to other states and taking with them a net $1.02 billion in adjusted gross income.

Like the Census data before it, the IRS data shows most of Connecticut’s in-migration came from New York and Massachusetts, while the states receiving the most Connecticut residents were largely Florida and New York.

Cross-border relocations between Connecticut and New York saw Connecticut gain a net of 16,971 individuals from New York and nearly $1.5 billion in AGI. However, the loss to Florida of 9,966 and $1.53 billion canceled out the AGI gains from New York.

Connecticut has long lost population to southern states, particularly as retirees relocate to avoid high taxes, with Florida generally being the largest recipient of Connecticut residents and dollars.

United Van Lines National Movers Study found more people moving out of Connecticut than moving into the state in 2022, largely driven by retirees and those earning over $150,000 per year, according to the annual study.

According to another post authored by Willner, the COVID migration into Connecticut only lasted between 2020 and 2021. During that time, Connecticut saw a net migration increase, with all county-equivalent planning areas seeing more people moving in than out.

“Between July 2021 and 2022, this migration pattern reversed. Overall, Connecticut experienced a domestic out-migration of 13,547 residents that was compensated for by an international in-migration of 16,269 residents, yielding an estimated net in-migration of 2,749 residents,” Willner wrote.

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