Has the craft beer bubble burst? According to data, CT and nation are at tipping point

Is the craft beer trend that swept the nation now on the decline?

Not quite, but it is close, according to the data.

Let’s take a look at the number of craft breweries, both in Connecticut and across the country.

Craft beer’s most recent boom in the United States occurred through the 2010s. A chart on the Brewers Association’s website shows craft breweries in the U.S. jumped from around 1,800 in 2010 to more than 9,000 by 2020; a 500% increase.

While total growth has slowed, 2023 marked the most craft breweries the nation has seen in recent years.

Looking at Connecticut, a chart shared by CT By The Numbers from Beer Institute and TBB, 2013 shows the Nutmeg state had 36 “active permitted breweries” in 2013, compared to 22 the year prior. According to Connecticut Brewers Guild , the state currently has 120 craft breweries in operation.

While the pandemic was a hurdle for many small businesses, data shared by TheStreet from Statista shows that craft brewery closings were already on the rise prior to COVID. At least 97 had closed in 2016, compared to 165 in 2017, 219 in 2018, 294 in 2019, and 346 in 2020.

“Government stimulus programs eased the rate of closings in 2021 as the amount dropped to 178, before spiking again to 319 in 2022, Statista reported,” per TheStreet. “The industry continued its distress in 2023 with 418 closings, according to the Brewers Association.”

Here is the full breakdown of total, national closings (From 2008-2015, TheStreet noted that about 44-68 breweries closed yearly, averaging to 56 per year. More precise data begins with 2016):

Connecticut shows a somewhat similar trend, according to Craft Beer Local . From 2016-2019, the Nutmeg state consistently lost 2 breweries a year. This number doubled in 2020 to 4 closings, dropped to 3 in 2021, increased to 7 in 2022, and rose again to 8 total closings in 2023.

Per Craft Beer Local, two additional breweries have closed in 2024: Quirk Works Brewery and Blendery in Danbury and City Steam Brewery in Hartford. A third brewery, Labyrinth Brewing Co. in Manchester, recently had their last day of operation on Sunday, July 21 .

Granted, this uptick comes with a grain of salt. More breweries in operation will inevitably mean a greater number of possible closings. Let’s look at this correlation, instead, and see what percentage of total U.S. craft breweries were closing in its most recent heyday compared to this past year:

Using total craft brewery data from Brewers Association and craft brewery closing data from TheStreet , the percentage of breweries that have closed from 2008-2023 is as follows:

Based on the above data, we can see that, since 2016, closings relative to total craft breweries in the U.S. has increased from 1.68% to 3.81% in 2020. This percentage drops significantly in 2021 thanks to government stimulus, per TheStreet, but jumped back up to 3.25% in 2022, and 4.22% in 2023, continuing the trend shown in years prior to COVID.

Let’s look at that first chart again, and compare the total number of breweries as a percentage of growth in a year-over-year fashion:

The data shows a decline in total U.S. craft brewery growth, year-over year, from a peak of 27% growth from 2013 to 2014, to the most recent increase of just 1% from 2022 to 2023.

So what does this mean for the craft beer scene? Should we expect increased percentages of closings as the years roll on?

With all this data, here are the key takeaways, as well as what can presumably be expected in the coming years:

1. Despite increasing closures per year of U.S. craft breweries, growth has yet to decline. There were more breweries in 2023 compared to any other year in recent history.
2. The nation has likely hit its effective “ceiling” of total craft breweries. While it is possible that the U.S could surpass 10,000 craft breweries, it is unlikely to grow much further, if not begin declining, in the ensuing years.
3. With more breweries closing year-over-year and total breweries stagnating, it is likely that the percentage of total U.S. craft brewery growth will fall into the negatives in the coming years, meaning a net loss in total breweries across the nation. There is not enough data to accurately predict how many craft breweries the U.S. might lose, or where total brewery count will settle, in the coming years.

In short, while the craft beer bubble has not quite popped, breweries may be in for a tough run of years ahead of them.

So, what can be done to keep craft breweries from closing up shop?

Drink local. Choose to grab a four-pack from your local brewery instead of a case of the big guys. Grab a pint or two with friends after work.

Of course, drink responsibly. Business is business, however, and choosing to drink local is the best way to keep your favorite craft brewery around for years to come.

Editor’s note: This is an analysis, not a news story.