The College Football Playoff committee announced official revisions to the 12-team playoff model in a press release Tuesday, Feb. 20.
The new model revises the system of six automatic bids and six at-large qualifications for the playoff to five auto-bids and seven at-large selections. The five automatic bids will go to the five highest ranked conference champions, with the seven at-large slots going to the next seven highest ranked schools.
The move comes in the wake of the demise of the Pac-12 Conference, with the original model allowing one of each Power Five — Pac-12, Big 10, Big 12, ACC and SEC — and the highest ranked conference champion from the Group of Five — one of The Mountain West, AAC, Sun Belt, Conference USA or MAC.
With the crumbling of the Pac-12 the shift to the new model essentially protects an extra spot for the Power Four, requiring the playoff to still — at minimum — allow just one Group of Five team in.
This decision comes with adverse effects for the two schools who have become the red-headed stepchildren of college football — Oregon State and Washington State.
Being left out of conference realignment and reaching a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West without fully integrating denies the Beavers and Cougars the ability to play for the Mountain West Championship. With the semi-release of Oregon State's schedule, there is notably no 'Pac-2 Conference Championship' in the mix. Meaning that with no conference championship victory to put on their resume, there will be no opportunity for an auto-bid into the playoff under the new format.
If Oregon State or Washington State wants a chance at a spot in the playoff, they're already competing at a disadvantage without a shot at an auto-bid. This doesn't completely eliminate the possibility of receiving one of the seven at-large bid, but it'll be tough sledding.
As said before, the new format protects Power Four teams. This isn't written into the by-laws of the model, but the usage of rankings doesn't bode well for teams on the outside looking in of the Power Four. An undefeated team from the Power Four will always be ranked higher than one from the Group of Five because their conference schedules are generally more difficult.
It doesn't help the Beavers that they're in a period of turnover. Jonathan Smith bounced, so did their top two quarterbacks and the defense will be a nearly completely new unit. After a tough bowl game loss and lots of question marks coming into a new year, early rankings will likely not be kind to the Beavers.
Oregon State will have a shot, but the window got a whole lot smaller with the announcement. Not only will they likely have to go undefeated — meaning a win at home over Oregon — but they'll have to do it in style.
The odds are stacked against the team from Corvallis. If Oregon State wants in, they can leave no doubt.
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