Momentum is crucial in cycling. Whatever someone’s skill, form, or results, once it starts to swing one way, it is hard to stop. Harder to reverse it. Yet it is impossible to quantify. How fast is the momentum moving and in which direction?
However, at this Vuelta a España , it is clear in which way the impetus is moving. On stage 13 on Friday , as on stage 11 on Wednesday , Ben O’Connor (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), the race leader, lost time to Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe).
At the beginning of this week, O’Connor had 3:53 on Roglič, the man in second. It meant some - including me - thought that Red Bull might have messed up in letting the Australian into the race lead, to pull on the red jersey. However, just four days later, and it feels inevitable that O’Connor will eventually be caught by Roglič; the gap now stands at 1:21.
Of course, the race isn’t over, and O’Connor might still battle back - the upcoming terrain arguably suits him better - but the momentum is clearly heading that way. It will be hard to arrest its swing. Roglič is now closer to the race lead than to third place - Enric Mas (Movistar) - a further 1:40 behind.
“I was pretty cooked, I wasn’t going anywhere in a hurry today,” O’Connor said post-stage. “Sad times, but I guess I’m still in red, so that at least is good. I was just trying to manage my effort, and I didn’t really have too much going on today. Who knows, in Granada I felt sweet, today I didn’t really have anything, and tomorrow I’ll just try and do my best. Have another day in the red jersey, then see how Sunday goes.”
Meanwhile, his rival was sounding a bit happier, although hardly ecstatic; Roglič is not given to overstatement and there are still eight stages to come.
“Sometimes you win a bit, sometimes you lose,” Roglič explained to Eurosport. “Today I’m on the right side. The only thing I can manage is myself, I tried to do my best, together with the team.
"I'll enjoy this, it’s nice to gain something, it’s nice to go good, but these hard efforts… I feel it. You have to go day-by-day. I don’t feel completely confident yet, we were a bit conservative.”
Roglič came into this race with his form unknown, particularly because he was just feeling his way back from a crash at the Tour de France in July - he has a back injury which is clearly still troubling him. That might still come into play.
However, it showed little sign of troubling him too much on stage 13 as he gained time on all his general classification rivals. If this is Roglič with a bad back, then what’s Roglič with a good back like?
The Slovenian has won the Vuelta on three previous occasions, and knows what it takes to stand atop the podium in Madrid. There remains at least five crucial general classification days in the mountains left, plus the final day time trial, and I can see Roglič taking time consistantly.
O’Connor, Mas, or Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) might still challenge, but the momentum is with Roglič, and in cycling that counts for a hell of a lot.
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