Leesburg could see heavy rain from tropical system in Gulf of Mexico. What to know

While the National Hurricane Center has lowered its predictions for a tropical system to develop in the Gulf of Mexico over the next seven days, AccuWeather forecasters are urging Florida residents make preparations for some possible impacts.

"The path of a brewing tropical feature over the southern Gulf of Mexico is almost certain to bring dangers and disruptions from heavy rain and flooding to the Florida Peninsula next week," AccuWeather meteorologists said.

"While the exact track and intensity of the feature unfolding in the Gulf have yet to be determined, Florida will bear the brunt this time around," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

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"At this time, the intensity will range from a sprawling tropical rainstorm to perhaps a strike from a more compact, full-blown hurricane."

Whether it becomes a named storm or not, the system will bring heavy rain to the Florida Peninsula and potentially elsewhere starting around Sunday and extending into next week, said Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

The National Weather Service has included Lake County in a Hazardous Weather Outlook statement that was issued Thursday morning. It says heavy thunderstorm activity is possible today and tonight, with "frequent lightning strikes, heavy downpours, and gusty winds" as the main concerns.

Looking ahead (Friday through Oct. 9): "Scattered showers and lightning storms remain in the forecast this weekend, increasing in coverage as deeper moisture arrives Sunday into next week. The risk for locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding increases next week," the statement says.

Several areas across Florida are still recovering from a hit by Category 4 Hurricane Helene a week ago. Hurricane Helene made landfall east of the mouth of the Aucilla River, 10 miles west-southwest of Perry, on Sept. 26 at 11:10 p.m.

With winds reaching 140 mph, the Category 4 storm ranks among the most powerful to strike the United States , according to NOAA.

Where is the potential tropical threat to Florida?

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Gulf of Mexico are associated with a surface trough.

A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week, but subsequent tropical or subtropical development could be limited by the system's potential interaction with a frontal boundary.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula next week.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
• Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent.

When could Florida feel impacts from system moving into Gulf of Mexico?

While the activity is still not organized in the western Caribbean Sea and southwestern Gulf of Mexico, "nearly every indicator suggests that a feature will form in the southwestern Gulf from late this weekend to the middle of next week and track northeastward and across the Florida Peninsula," AccuWeather said.

“We are forecasting an area of low pressure to organize this weekend over southern Mexico and the Bay of Campeche, and then we expect tropical development in the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week,” said Rayno. “We expect this potential tropical threat to start moving toward Florida by next Tuesday or Wednesday.

South and Central Florida are likely to tally 3 inches or more of rainfall between Sunday and Tuesday, Truchelut said.

Could a tropical storm or hurricane develop close to Florida?

"At this time, the intensity will range from a sprawling tropical rainstorm to perhaps a strike from a more compact, full-blown hurricane," Rayno said, adding that wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico will determine the strength and timing of tropical impacts in Florida.

“If the wind shear remains stronger, this system will likely remain disorganized and it is unlikely to develop into a hurricane. Impacts would likely be felt in Florida on Monday and Tuesday,” Rayno said.

“If the wind shear is lighter, we will likely be dealing with a named tropical storm or potentially a hurricane moving towards Florida on Tuesday into Wednesday with damaging winds, storm surge and flooding. Everyone on the Florida Peninsula needs to get ready for heavy rainfall next week.”

Even if Gulf system doesn't get a name, Florida could still feel impacts.

"While something is likely to form over the Gulf by the weekend, what develops is not likely to be a tight, well-organized hurricane, and may well not even technically be a tropical storm or depression either," Truchelut said.

"However, the label, or lack thereof, doesn’t mean that there won’t be impacts: tropical or not, the eventual rainfall accumulations are likely to be heavy in Central and South Florida," Truchelut said.

"Two pieces of energy will likely combine to spur development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in the coming days," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "One piece is heading westward from the Caribbean, and the other piece is associated with a tropical depression near Mexico in the eastern Pacific."

The consolidation process will be slow and likely to take several days.

"Should development take place in the southwestern Gulf and move along a narrow east-northeast path toward the Florida Peninsula, there is the time and potential for the feature to strengthen into a tropical storm and hurricane," DaSilva said.

What impacts could Florida see from tropical system?

"Regardless of the intensity of the tropical feature, a swath of drenching downpours will douse Florida, especially the central and southern parts of the peninsula next week," AccuWeather said.

"The rain is likely to fall over a several-day stretch unless a more condensed hurricane forms. In this case, the heaviest rain may be focused over one day but could be intense. The risk of flooding downpours will ramp up early next week and may persist into midweek, depending on the intensity and forward speed of the feature. Many inches to a foot or more of rain may fall in some locations."

A large area of rainfall is likely to spread out to the east and northeast of the low’s broad center, Truchelut said. This rainfall will probably reach the immediate northern Gulf Coast and the Florida peninsula by late in the weekend.

"South and Central Florida are likely to tally 3 inches or more of rainfall between Sunday and Tuesday, with the potential for widespread higher totals if the storm lingers through the mid-week or beyond.

"North Florida may or may not see significant rainfall from this, depending on the structure of the low and where it forms, but rains are not likely to last as long over the Panhandle as peninsular Florida," according to Truchelut.

A more intense tropical storm or hurricane would bring impacts from storm surge and damaging wind, AccuWeather said.

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Jim Ross contributed to this report

This article originally appeared on Daily Commercial: Leesburg could see heavy rain from tropical system in Gulf of Mexico. What to know