NERC finds extreme variability in interregional power transfer capability across North America

Transfer capability varies seasonally and under different system conditions that limit transmission loading and it cannot be represented by a single number, according to a draft analysis released Aug. 27 by the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC).

Tuesday’s draft, which will be finalized and sent to federal regulators as part of an effort to improve grid reliability, is the second in a series of three draft documents that will be merged into the final Interregional Transfer Capability Study (ITCS), which is being produced in response to a congressional directive in the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023.

“NERC remains focused on assuring reliability throughout the ongoing energy transformation,” it said in the 76-page draft analysis. “Recent operational events on the BPS [bulk-power system] show that more needs to be done to support energy adequacy to continuously meet customer demand. Ensuring sufficient transfer capability of the transmission system to support energy adequacy is the reliability gap that the ITCS seeks to address.”

NERC also pointed out that adequate transfer capability is fundamental to the reliable operation of the BPS, and Balancing Authorities may rely on their neighbors to supply energy for various purposes, including economic or policy reasons.

“Transfer capability is also essential under stressed operating conditions, allowing Balancing Authorities to maintain reliability by importing needed energy from their neighbors,” according to its analysis. “As the resource mix becomes increasingly dependent on just-in-time and weather-dependent fuels, such as wind and solar, the ability to transfer electrical energy from areas of fuel adequacy to areas experiencing fuel constraints has become essential to maintaining reliable delivery of electricity to end-use customers.”

In other key observations, NERC said that transfer capability varies widely across North America, with total import capability varying between one percent and 92 percent of peak load.

NERC also observed that transfer capabilities are generally higher in the West Coast, Great Lakes, and mid-Atlantic areas but relatively lower in the Mountain States, Great Plains, Southeast, and Northeast regions.

“There is limited transfer capability between Interconnections,” according to the draft, entitled Transfer Capability Analysis (Part 1) , which provides current total transfer capability analysis between pairs of neighboring Transmission Planning Regions in North America.

Additionally, NERC said that the magnitude of transfer capability “is not itself a measure of energy adequacy.”

“This will be evaluated in Part 2 of the study, which will recommend prudent additions where needed based on a holistic view of transmission and resource availability,” said NERC.

The analysis focuses on 2024 summer and 2024/2025 winter conditions. NERC said the results from the Part 1 analysis will be applied to Part 2, which will evaluate the adequacy of total transfer capability based on the future resource mix and 12 weather years.

Part 2 also will identify and recommend technically prudent additions to transfer capability between neighboring areas. Part 3 will make recommendations to meet and maintain transfer capability and provide several practical approaches covering multiple time horizons.

A fourth document, a study of transfer capabilities from the United States to Canada and between Canadian provinces, will be published in the first quarter of 2025.

The ITCS is being conducted in consultation with NERC’s six Regional Entities and each transmitting utility across North America, and includes collaboration with transmission planners, planning coordinators, transmission operators, transmission owners, state/provincial/federal partners, utilities and trade groups.

To ensure diverse expertise from across North America’s regional transmission areas, an advisory group was established to provide input on study design and execution, recommendations and the draft reports, according to NERC.

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