IAEA revises up its projections for world nuclear capacity

World nuclear capacity is now projected to increase by 2.5 times the current capacity by 2050, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

This new projection has been revised up by IAEA – the fourth consecutive year it has done so. The increased projections align with the global consensus on the need to accelerate the deployment of nuclear energy.

At the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai last year, nuclear power was included for the first time in the Global Stocktake. It called for accelerating the deployment of low emission technologies including nuclear energy to help achieve rapid decarbonization.

“Following the success of COP28 in Dubai and the first ever Nuclear Energy Summit in Brussels, the global momentum behind nuclear energy continues at pace,” IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said. “The new IAEA projections reflect increasing acknowledgement of nuclear power as a clean and secure energy supply, as well as increasing interest in SMRs to target both electric and non-electric applications to meet climate goals and foster sustainable development.”

At the end of 2023, 413 nuclear power reactors were operational, with a global capacity of 371.5 GW(e). In the high case scenario, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to 950 gigawatts by 2050, which would be slightly more than 2.5 times what it was in 2023.

In the low case projection, capacity rises 40 per cent to 514 gigawatts. Small modular reactors, or SMRs, account for about one quarter of the capacity added in the high case and for 6 percent in the low case scenario.

Around 30 newcomer countries are either considering or moving forward with plans to introduce nuclear power into their energy mix. Meanwhile, other countries are expanding and extending the lifetimes of existing nuclear power plants. In the high case scenario, it is assumed that the operating lifetimes of most nuclear power reactors scheduled for retirement will be extended.

The 44th edition of Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 provides detailed global trends in nuclear power by region. The report’s low and high estimates reflect different, but not extreme, underlying assumptions for the worldwide deployment of nuclear power.

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