A tropical storm watch is now in effect for the Gulf Mexican coast as the the National Hurricane Center on Sunday afternoon sent out a storm advisory for what was at 5 p.m. ET being called Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, a system with 50 mph sustained winds and higher gusts.
The storm system could become Tropical Storm Francine and is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern Gulf Coast by the middle of next week, the National Hurricane Center predicts.
The system may bring 4 to 8 inches of rain with localized amounts up to 12 inches in portions of Texas and Louisiana. Its winds are well above the 39 mph threshold for a tropical storm, but the system isn't organized enough to be named.
Two other systems, one in the central Atlantic and the other to the east, have medium chances of formation . Both have a chance of formation into tropical systems, or depressions, this week.
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The tropical systems the Hurricane Center's tropical weather discussion from Sunday mentioned these areas to watch:
- An area of disturbed weather over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that may become a tropical storm
- Storm activity moving west in the central Atlantic over waters with conditions conducive for development
- Stagnant disorganized showers expected to interact with a tropical wave off Africa
Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico, upper Texas, and Louisiana coasts should closely monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm watches could be required for portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas as soon as today, with additional watches possible later tonight or Monday.
Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are extremely high, which helps tropical cyclones develop and strengthen.
Historically, about two-thirds of all Atlantic hurricane activity occurs between Aug. 20 and Oct. 10, said Philip Klotzbach , meteorologist at Colorado State University specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Expect tropical activity to ramp up
Wind shear , which has helped prevent tropical waves from organizing, is expected to lessen by the middle of September.
Along with the long-expected transition to La Niña and reduction in the amount of Saharan dust, forecasters are expecting tropical activity to increase this month.
The next named storm of the season will be Francine.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 2 p.m. Sept. 8:
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
The elongated disturbance being tracked in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph and a slow northwestward motion followed by a turn more northward is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move near the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastline on Wednesday, NHC forecasters said.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico beginning Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of the Texas Coast and into Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may bring flash and urban flooding.
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Mexico coast within areas of onshore flow.
SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Also, showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is now likely to form as the system moves slowly through the central tropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 60 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 70 percent.
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to possibly interact with a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday. Gradual development could follow, and atropical depression could form by the middle or latter part of the week.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: near zero percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 50 percent.
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What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern Gulf Coast by the middle of the week.
While it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are increasing for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines beginning Tuesday night. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area on Monday, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
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When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
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When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
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What's next?
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This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: National Hurricane Center expects Gulf tropical storm to form. Here's where it's going
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