In a hurry? Here's the tropics situation in less than a minute .
Tropical Storm Francine is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Hurricane warnings are in effect along the coast of Louisiana, along with various tropical storm warnings and storm surge warnings .
A tropical storm watch extends along the Gulf Coast to the border between Alabama and Florida.
On the forecast track, Francine is forecast to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through today, and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday.
➤ Spaghetti models for Francine
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The National Hurricane Center has lowered its forecast and now predicts Francine will be a Category 1 hurricane with 90-mph winds before making landfall.
Impacts expected include heavy rain and storm surge.
Francine is the first Atlantic named storm in almost a month. There hasn't been a storm since Ernesto formed Aug. 12. The last time there has been no named storm in the Atlantic basin between Aug. 13 and Sept. 8 was 1968.
Where is Tropical Storm Francine? What you need to know
- Location : 130 miles southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande; 380 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana
- Maximum sustained winds: 65 mph
- Movement : northeast at 9 mph
- Pressure : 988 mb
- Next advisory: 4 p.m. CDT; 5 p.m. EDT
Interactive map: Excessive rainfall forecast
Spaghetti models: Latest models on where Tropical Storm Francine could make landfall
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Watches, warnings issued across Florida, US
Hurricane warning:
- The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Grand Isle
Storm surge warning:
- High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana
- Vermilion Bay
- Lake Maurepas
- Lake Pontchartrain
Storm surge watch:
- Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border
- Mobile Bay
Tropical storm warning:
- Texas coast from High Island to Sabine Pass
- East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including metropolitan New Orleans
- Lake Pontchartrain
- Lake Maurepas
Tropical storm watch:
- Texas coast from Matagorda to High Island
- The Alabama coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border
How strong is Tropical Storm Francine and where is it going?
At 1 pm. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 95.2 West.
Francine is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph. A continued northeastward motion and a faster forward speed are expected later this afternoon and tonight.
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On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to move away from the coast of northeastern Mexico and south Texas this afternoon, move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight, and then make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday.
After landfall, the center is expected to move into Mississippi on Wednesday night or Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph, with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected through Wednesday morning, and Francine will likely become a hurricane later today or tonight.
Francine is expected to weaken quickly after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.
The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 988 mb.
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Francine
- There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for portions of the Upper Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi coastlines where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local officials.
- Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete by tonight, since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday.
- Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding for far northeast Mexico into the far southern coast of Texas today and across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the Mid-South Wednesday night into Friday morning.
Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Francine get?
- As of 10 a.m. CDT: 65 mph
- 12 hours: 75 mph (Category 1 hurricane)
- 24 hours: 90 mph
- 36 hours: 85 mph (inland)
- 48 hours: 45 mph
- 60 hours: 35 mph
- 72 hours: 30 mph
- 96 hours: 25 mph
- 120 hours: dissipated
What impact could Tropical Storm Francine have and what areas could be affected?
- Wind : Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday. with tropical storm conditions arriving in the warning area by early Wednesday.
- Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico and south Texas for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northeastern coast of Mexico for the next few hours.
- Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along portions of the Texas coast in the watch area today and tonight, and are possible in the watch area on the Alabama coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
- Storm surge: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
- Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
- Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...3-5 ft
- Pointe a la Hache, LA to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft
- The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees.
- Rainfall : Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.
- The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
- Tornadoes: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday morning through Wednesday night over near-coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
- Surf : Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Atlantic tropics storm tracker
See new 'cone of concern' used with Tropical Storm Francine
The National Hurricane Center first launched its new "cone of concern " for Hurricane Ernesto on Aug. 14 and is using it now with Tropical Storm Francine.
Ernesto stayed well away from Florida and the U.S., so residents didn't see many differences between the original and new cone.
With Francine already affecting Texas and a day to go before an expected landfall in Louisiana, that's not the case with the new cone posted by the National Hurricane Center on its website.
One of the biggest differences between the two cones is that the new cone shows wind warnings issued for interior counties, not just those on the coast.
Both cones will be visible on the Hurricane Center's website. Find the new cone by going to the graphics page for the storm , then click on "New Experimental Cone," which is highlighted in red.
Differences you'll see:
- Watches and warnings for inland counties, not just coastal areas.
- White transparent shading for the entire five-day forecast, instead of white stippling (dots) for the four- and five-day forecast.
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Tropical Storm Francine expected to become hurricane before making landfall on Gulf Coast
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