In a hurry? Here's what's happening with Tropical Storm Francine - in less than a minute .
Today, Sept. 10, marks the historical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, and the National Hurricane Center is tracking three systems, including what's expected to become the season's next hurricane.
Tropical Storm Francine is expected to strengthen into a hurricane later today, before making landfall in Louisiana as a Category 1 storm on Wednesday, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
➤ Spaghetti models for Francine
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While the Hurricane Center puts the center of the storm west of Florida, some impacts could be felt along the northern Gulf Coast of the Sunshine State, along with a threat for tornadoes.
Elsewhere in the tropics, the Hurricane Center is tracking two other systems in the Atlantic Ocean. Both could develop into tropical depressions.
Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are extremely high, which helps tropical cyclones develop and strengthen.
Historically, about two-thirds of all Atlantic hurricane activity occurs between Aug. 20 and Oct. 10, said Philip Klotzbach , meteorologist at Colorado State University specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 2 p.m. EDT Sept.10:
Where is Tropical Storm Francine?
Tropical Storm Francine spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Expected impacts from Tropical Storm Francine on Florida
Expect impacts to Florida from Francine Wednesday night into Thursday. The National Weather Service Mobile predicted possible impacts of coastal hazards, heavy rainfall, tornadoes, and gusty winds nearing tropical storm force:
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
- A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday morning through Wednesday night over Florida's Panhandle. "We are becoming increasingly concerned with the tornado potential (from outer bands) with this system," especially from the National Weather Service, Mobile said.
- While heavy rainfall will be concentrated close to the center of Francine's path, 2-4 inches, with some locally higher amounts, are possible for Florida's Panhandle.
- Gusty winds will be possible Wednesday night through Thursday.
- Life-threatening rip currents and large surf of 5 to 7 feet possibly up to 8 feet are expected at all area beaches.
- Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected.
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Invest 92L in the Central tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropicalAtlantic continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slight development during the nextcouple of days, but a tropical depression could still form during that time while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 30 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent.
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Eastern and Central tropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic isproducing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms from near the Cabo Verde Islands extending southwestward for several hundred miles.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter part of this week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 40 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: high, 80 percent.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
What is an invest?
Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.
Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They're usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they've been designated as an invest does not guarantee they'll develop into a tropical cyclone.
Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90.
Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and the running spaghetti models.
Who is likely to be impacted?
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from the two tropical waves in the Atlantic.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
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When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Peak of hurricane season is here, along with Tropical Storm Francine, 2 tropical waves
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