In a hurry? Here's what's happening with Hurricane Francine - in less than a minute.
Tropical-storm-force winds from Hurricane Francine have reached the Louisiana coast ahead of an expected landfall later today.
Elsewhere in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center also is tracking four other tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin, according to the latest advisory.
One of the newest disturbances is east of Florida, and another system has strengthened into Tropical Depression 7. The depression in the eastern Atlantic is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Thursday.
➤ Spaghetti models for Francine
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Francine is a strong Category 1 storm , with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph.
While the Hurricane Center puts the center of the storm west of Florida, some impacts could be felt in the state, especially in the Panhandle, including heavy rain and a threat for tornadoes.
The Hurricane Center is tracking four systems in the Atlantic Ocean. The one east of Florida could see some subtropical or tropical development early next week.
The next named storm of the season is Gordon.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 2 p.m. EDT Sept. 11:
Where is Hurricane Francine?
Hurricane Francine spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Expected impacts from Hurricane Francine on Florida
Expect impacts to Florida from Francine Wednesday night into Thursday. The National Weather Service Mobile predicted possible impacts of coastal hazards, heavy rainfall, tornadoes, and gusty winds nearing tropical storm force:
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
- A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday morning through Wednesday night over Florida's Panhandle. "We are becoming increasingly concerned with the tornado potential (from outer bands) with this system," especially from the National Weather Service, Mobile said.
- While heavy rainfall will be concentrated close to the center of Francine's path, rainfall predictions for Florida's Panhandle range from 2 to 8 inches.
- Gusty winds will be possible Wednesday night through Thursday.
- Life-threatening rip currents and large surf of 5 to 7 feet possibly up to 8 feet are expected at all area beaches.
- Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected.
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Offshore the Southeastern U.S. over the western Atlantic: In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development is possible during the early part of next week while the system drifts to the north or northwest.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent.
Invest 92L in the Central Tropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some slight development during the next day or twowhile the system moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. The disturbance is expected to reach an area of stronger upper-level winds on Friday, likely ending its chances for development.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 30 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent.
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Invest 94L, east of the Leeward Islands: A small but well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the east of the Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. The proximity of dry air near the system is expected to limit additional development over the next couple of days before environmental conditionsbecome even less conducive by this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 10 percent.
Tropical Depression 7 expected to become tropical storm soon
At 2 p.m. CVT, the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 28.7 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph, and a west to west-northwest motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated over the next few days.
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression 7
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph, with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or on Thursday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression 7
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
What is an invest?
Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.
Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They're usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they've been designated as an invest does not guarantee they'll develop into a tropical cyclone.
Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90.
Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and the running spaghetti models.
Who is likely to be impacted?
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from the tropical disturbances in the Atlantic.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
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When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Hurricane Francine joined by disturbance off Florida coast and Tropical Depression 7
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