The National Hurricane Center is tracking three systems in the Atlantic basin, including newly formed Tropical Storm Gordon and a disturbance northeast of Florida showing more potential for development, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
The system off the southeastern U.S. could become a subtropical or tropical depression early next week as it moves toward the coast.
Remnants from what is now Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine were bringing heavy rain and the risk for flash floods to portions of the Tennessee Valley and the Southeast this morning.
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Francine made landfall Wednesday night as a Category 2 storm in Terrebonne Parish in Louisiana with maximum sustained winds near 100 mph.
Forecasters are tracking:
- Tropical Storm Gordon in the eastern Atlantic
- Invest 94L near the northern Leeward Islands
- Disturbance a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coast
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 5 p.m. EDT Sept. 13:
Tropical Storm Gordon forms in eastern Atlantic
- Location : 1045 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
- Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph
- Movement : west-northwest at 10 mph
- Pressure : 1006 mb
What you should know about Tropical Storm Gordon
At 5 p.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 39.5 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph.
A turn westward is forecast by later tonight, with the system slowing down through the weekend.
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Gordon
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible today or tonight, before a weakening trend begins on Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Gordon
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Will Tropical Storm Gordon impact Florida, US?
Don't expect any impacts from Tropical Storm Gordon in the U.S., according to Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster.
"This will not bother anyone, except maybe shipping," DaSilva said in a telephone interview Thursday. "It will stay in the Atlantic and pose no threat to the U.S.
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Offshore the Southeastern U.S. over the western Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline this weekend.
Thereafter, the low may develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical depressioncould form early next week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40 percent.
Invest 94L, east of the Leeward Islands: An area of low pressure near the Northern Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions, including the proximity of dry air, do not favordevelopment of this system and development is no longer expected while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: near 0 percent.
Could system northeast of Florida affect your weekend?
While the system off the Southeast U.S. coast may get a boost from what's left of Francine, don't expect any direct impacts to Florida over the weekend or early next week.
The system does have the potential to become a named storm. The earliest something could develop would be Sunday and then it would move inland Monday night or Tuesday.
"There may be some increased wave action and rough surf and rip currents, especially in North Florida, but nothing direct," DaSilva said.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
What is an invest?
Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.
Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They're usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they've been designated as an invest does not guarantee they'll develop into a tropical cyclone.
Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90.
Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and the running spaghetti models.
Who is likely to be impacted?
While Tropical Storm Gordon is not expected to impact Florida or the U.S., the system off the southeastern coast could bring some rough surf and rip currents to North Florida early next week, DaSilva said.
Direct impacts are expected for northern South Carolina and North Carolina Sunday through Tuesday, Possible impacts include: Coastal flooding and erosion, 2 to 4 inches of rain and 40-50 mph winds along coastal areas.
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from Invest 94L.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
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When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Tropical depression possible off US coast. Will it affect Florida, US?
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