A tropical depression could form late this week as Invest 94L makes its way toward the Caribbean Sea, although chances for development have dropped a little, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters also are tracking another tropical system, this one in the western Caribbean. Based on current conditions, this is expected to stay well away from Florida and move into Central America this weekend, according to AccuWeather.
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Invest 94L, which AccuWeather is calling a "tropical rainstorm" to raise public awareness, could develop into a tropical storm or even a hurricane over the weekend as it runs into an environment conducive for development.
That development may be short lived as it runs into "more hostile conditions for strengthening and organization," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
The next named storms of the season will be Nadine and Oscar.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of p.m. Oct. 16:
Will Invest94L become Tropical Storm Nadine?
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Recent satellite surface wind data showed the circulation associated with a disturbance designated as Invest 94L over the tropical Atlantic Ocean has become less defined since yesterday.
➤ Track Invest 94L
The trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development during the latter part of this week.
A tropical depression could form as the system moves near the Leeward and Virgin Islands late this week.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 30 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40 percent.
"It is possible for the feature to ramp up quickly to a tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane as its core approaches or passes near the Leewards late this week," DaSilva said.
Invest 94L spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Will Florida see another tropical storm or hurricane soon?
AccuWeather said two conditions could inhibit tropical development that could affect Florida and the southeastern United States:
- The islands of the northern Caribbean.
- Mountains over the islands could rip apart any tropical system that moves over land.
- A complex weather pattern over the southern Atlantic Ocean, eastern Gulf Coast and Bahamas.
- A storm that interacts with the jet stream, along with an area of high pressure over the Southeast could be steered away.
- However, if the jet stream or area of high pressure weakens, a tropical system could come close to Florida.
When could Florida feel any impacts from a potential storm?
Any impacts to Florida would probably not be until early next week at the earliest, AccuWeather meteorologists said.
However, "the same features working to possibly protect Florida from a direct hit by a major tropical system in the next week or so will lead to stiff winds from the east and northeast that will raise seas, create dangerous surf and lead to beach erosion and coastal flooding along the southern Atlantic coast of the U.S."
What else is out there and how likely is it to strengthen?
Western Caribbean Sea: Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Some gradual development is possible if the system stays over water while it moves slowly northwestward toward Central America.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America and southern Mexico later this week and into the weekend
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
When will 2024 Atlantic hurricane season end?
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
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(This story was updated to add new information.)
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Tropical depression could form as Invest 94L approaches Caribbean. Will it become Nadine?
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