The hurricane experts at AccuWeather.com have some good news and some bad news.
After an August relatively tame compared with expectations, AccuWeather hurricane experts are reducing the number of named storms planned for this season from 20-25 to 20-23. That's the good news.
The bad news is that we could be facing a very busy September.
“AccuWeather expert meteorologists continue to forecast 20-25 named storms through this Atlantic hurricane season. However, in a new development, AccuWeather hurricane experts now assess that 20-23 named storms are most likely, which are fewer named storms than many other sources are predicting,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter in a release. “The reason for this assessment is the long lull that has been experienced in recent weeks where there have been no named storms during what is typically a very active time of the hurricane season.”
Why was August so quiet for hurricanes?
August is typically one of the busiest months for hurricanes, especially a year when most experts expected a potential record number of storms. However, conditions in the Atlantic didn't support development.
Porter said a surge of Saharan dust, dry air, pockets of strong wind shear and sinking air which can prevent tropical waves from developing, limited tropical development during most of August, especially in the wake of Hurricane Debby.
What to expect in September
AccuWeather storm experts are expecting an uptick in storms this month. Three factors could lead to a "supercharged September."
- Less wind shear and less dry air will create favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development.
- Water temperatures across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are at record-high levels.
- The near-record levels of Sahara dust are expected to clear out.
This is leading AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva and AccuWeather to forecast six to 10 named storms through Sept. 30.
“We could see a parade of storms developing during the month of September. There’s a possibility that we could see multiple tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin on the same day, similar to the frequency of storms that we’ve seen during other supercharged hurricane seasons like 2020,” said DaSilva. “The statistical peak of the hurricane season is Sept. 10, and we expect the Atlantic basin to be incredibly active.”
What was the hurricane forecast for 2024?
While each forecast was different, they all call for a very active and potentially dangerous hurricane season impacted by warm waters and La Nina.
- 17 to 25 total named storms — winds of 39 mph or higher
- Eight to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes — winds of 74 mph or higher
- Four to seven are expected to be major hurricanes — a category 3 storm with winds at 111 mph or greater
- 23 named storms this year
- 11 will become hurricanes
- Five will become major hurricanes
- 20 to 25 named storms
- Eight to 12 hurricanes
- Four to seven major hurricanes
Hurricane names for 2024
So far we have had five named Atlantic storms. The remaining names will be used in alphabetical order.
This article originally appeared on Delaware News Journal: Hurricane season 2024: After a quiet August, could Delaware face 'supercharged September'
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