Hurricane season is nearing its end.
After a season that didn't live up to scary expectations, is it possible that we could see powerful late-season hurricanes like Helene?
"October is historically an active month, particularly in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and off the U.S. Southeast coast," Brian McNoldy, a hurricane research scientist at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School, told USA TODAY.
When does hurricane season end?
The Atlantic hurricane season ends Nov. 30. However, the peak months for hurricanes run from August through late September.
Helene aftermath: See photos, video from Carolinas, Southeast region battling back from Helene's destruction
Big storms can happen in October
Using the storm names that have been retired since 1953 as a proxy for landfalling storms that had a great impact, September has the most retired names, with 43, McNoldy said. August and October are essentially tied at 21 and 20, and only seven storm names have been retired from November storms.
However, it's also worth noting that October and November together have more retired storm names than June, July and August combined, he said. "So we must absolutely still be on alert for tropical cyclone threats in the remainder of hurricane season."
It's also important to remember that it doesn't take a strong hurricane to cause a lot of damage, McNoldy said. "A slow-moving disorganized disturbance that maybe doesn't quite become a tropical storm can unleash feet of rain over an area and create terrible flash flooding," he said. "The rainfall threat from tropical systems has historically taken a back seat to the wind threat in people's minds, despite being deadlier."
Are there storms we need to watch?
There are two storms in the Atlantic at this time:
Hurricane Kirk
Hurricane Kirk is a major hurricane in the Atlantic with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. However, Kirk is not expected to make landfall in the United States. It's expected to turn to the northeast this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical Storm Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie is building in the eastern Atlantic. It should become a hurricane on Saturday. It's still too soon to tell whether Leslie will follow Kirk's path or make landfall.
Storms in the Gulf of Mexico
There were worries earlier this week that another storm would develop and possibly follow Helene's path. So far, tropical or subtropical storms haven't developed. There's a 30% chance a storm will develop in the next seven days, according to the NHC. Either way, portions of Mexico and Florida could see locally heavy rains.
What was the hurricane forecast for 2024?
While each forecast was different, they all call for a very active and potentially dangerous hurricane season impacted by warm waters and La Nina.
- 17 to 25 total named storms — winds of 39 mph or higher
- Eight to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes — winds of 74 mph or higher
- Four to seven are expected to be major hurricanes — a category 3 storm with winds at 111 mph or greater
- 23 named storms this year
- 11 will become hurricanes
- Five will become major hurricanes
- 20 to 25 named storms
- Eight to 12 hurricanes
- Four to seven major hurricanes
How many named storms have we had in 2024?
With the formation of Tropical Storm Leslie, we have had 12 named storms this year. While not the big season forecasters predicted, it is close to the NOAA forecast.
This article originally appeared on Delaware News Journal: Will hurricane season's final months go out with a boom? Here's what we know
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