ORCHARD PARK - Imagine what the members of the 1970s era Buffalo Bills must be thinking the last seven years as they have watched their old team dominate the Miami Dolphins .
Fans of a certain age - meaning those with some gray hair, or no hair at all - will never forget the 1970s when the Dolphins owned the Bills the way no team has ever owned another in the NFL. Miami won every game between the AFC East rivals in that lost decade, 20 straight which is an NFL record of dominance that still stands. Not even the Patriots of the 2000s could claim that level of subjugation of the Bills, though it was close.
However, since Sean McDermott breezed into Buffalo in 2017 , the Bills have flipped the script and while Squish the Fish was merely a hope in the 1970s, it has become the expectation against the Dolphins who are on their third head coach in the last seven-plus years.
Under McDermott, the Bills have beaten the Dolphins in 13 of 15 games counting the postseason, and have averaged 31.7 points along their merry way. And the two losses, both at Hard Rock Stadium, came in 2018 when rookie Josh Allen’s would-be game-winning TD pass in the final minute was dropped by Charles Clay, and then in 2022 when the Bills succumbed to overwhelming September heat yet nearly pulled out a victory before falling 21-19.
With Allen as the QB, the Bills are 11-2 and he has saved some of his greatest performances for Miami as he has accounted for 41 TDs, 36 via the air which is the most by one QB against any team in the NFL since 2018.
Allen has thrown at least two TD passes in all 13 games he has played against Miami, the longest streak in NFL history for one player against a single opponent. Thus, it’s not surprising that Allen has been named AFC offensive player of the week five times in games where the Dolphins were the opponent.
What does all that mean Thursday night when the teams collide ? Maybe nothing, or maybe the Bills truly are in the Dolphins’ heads and the good times will keep rolling for Buffalo.
Here are the key storylines for the game:
The Jordan Poyer revenge game?
Actually, revenge has nothing to do with it because Poyer did not leave the Bills on bad terms. Football is a business, he knows that, and the Bills made the decision to move on from a 33-year-old safety who has started to decline. That said, Poyer is still a fine player, one who would still be starting if he remained in Buffalo, so naturally he’s going to want to prove that point.
“Absolutely, there has been, for sure,” Poyer said when he was asked if there’s been some playful trash texting between him and his old Bills teammates. “I’m going to keep it at that. The boys know we’re coming, I know they’re coming, so it’s going to be a fun Thursday night.”
In his Miami debut, Poyer wasn’t great and he was probably responsible for the TD pass Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence threw to rookie Bryan Thomas, though as Poyer said, “Yeah, it was a good throw.”
While he brings experience and leadership to Miami’s defense, the Bills also know that he’s not the same player he was in his heyday in Buffalo, and with two outstanding veterans in safety Jevon Holland and cornerback Jalen Ramsey, you might see Josh Allen avoid them as best he can and try to manipulate Poyer into bad matchups, though that’s easier said than done.
If that’s part of the plan, Poyer said he’ll be ready.
“I’m excited to play this week,” Poyer said. “Obviously, a team that I played with the last seven years. I’m very familiar with a lot of guys they have over there. I still have a lot of good relationships over there. I’m thankful for all of my years out there in Buffalo, but I’m excited to play, for sure. I’ve definitely been connecting with the guys on this team. Like I said, we’re going to be ready to play.”
Can the Bills handle Dolphins' passing game?
That seems to be the question every year now that Tua Tagovailoa is the quarterback, mad scientist Mike McDaniel is the head coach, and Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the primary receivers. That group has thrust the Dolphins into the conversation regarding the most dynamic offenses in the NFL. One thing we know for sure, the Dolphins are certainly the fastest offense in the league.
To date, the Bills have done a commendable job in their Miami matchups, but this time, they won’t have Poyer, Micah Hyde, Tre’Davious White, or injured Taron Johnson in the secondary, and that’s nothing if not worrisome.
With Hill and Waddle on the outside, plus Devon Achane and Raheem Mostert coming out of the backfield, it’s like a track meet when you play Miami. The speed is blinding, especially if they’re in rhythm and on point, and the Bills’ secondary will have Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin trying to replace Poyer and Hyde, with Cam Lewis in for Johnson.
“I think their whole offense is a challenge,” McDermott said. “I think Mike McDaniel does a phenomenal job just as a head coach but also as an offensive player caller and designer of plays. So they’ve got tremendous, tremendous speed. It’s unlike anything I’ve ever seen, and not just this year but in the past. They’re tremendously talented and fast. You saw the game the other day. If you don’t get near them, they’re gone. Even when you get near them they pull away. So they’re really talented.”
Buffalo Bills running effectively could be critical
The Bills did a decent enough job on the ground against the Cardinals, though in the second half James Cook lost his way a bit and managed just 22 yards on 11 attempts. That needs to improve, and if Cook starts to struggle, the Bills should certainly get rookie Ray Davis a little more involved. He had just three carries against the Cardinals, but one of those went for 13 yards.
Usually it’s the opposition trying to manage the clock and keep Allen off the field, but in this one, the Bills are the team that should be trying to shorten the game and keep Miami’s explosive offense off the field.
Running the ball is the best way to do that because last week Miami allowed 4.9 yards per attempt to the Jaguars so there should be chances for Cook and/or Davis to do some damage.
“Staying in front of the chains, when we can run the ball like that, we’re gonna find success because it helps play action, it helps our O-line not just sitting pass set the whole game,” Allen said. “It allows us to do different things and have different personnel and force their hand, whether they wanna play base or nickel, to some of our personnels. And we still feel like we can pass out of those personnels. It just keeps defenses on their toes and allows us to be two dimensional.”
Buffalo Bills special teams can’t fail
Last week, the kickoff return touchdown for Arizona changed the entire tenor of the game in the fourth quarter. The Bills should have been able to easily get the game to triple zeros but once the coverage unit broke down, the Cardinals had new life and the Buffalo defense was required to make two stops to close out the victory.
Against Arizona’s offense, that wasn’t overly difficult. But against Miami, there can’t be any letdowns because the Dolphins certainly don’t need any help on offense. In addition to the TD, the Bills gave Arizona a drive start at the 40 for the final possession when Tyler Bass’ kickoff went out of bounds. The Bills can’t allow another special teams TD, or a big return or two that gives Tagovailoa a short field.
“I thought that there was too much return yardage to begin with before the returner was met with any type of confrontation,” McDermott said. “And then we had three or four guys right there to make the play, and we didn’t make the play. When they’re there, we got to make the play. It’s an area of concern and it’s an area that we have to make sure that we shore up between now and the game here coming Thursday.”
Sal’s prediction: Dolphins 27, Bills 26
This is a tough spot for the Bills, having to go on the road to play a division opponent on a short week, but that’s the case for almost all road teams in Thursday night games. The Bills have done this enough to know how to handle it, but in the Miami heat, without Taron Johnson against the Dolphins’ dynamic passing game, it’s a tough task for Buffalo, even though it has owned the Dolphins for years. It just feels like if Miami is ever going to beat Buffalo, this is a prime opportunity in prime time.
The Bills have already ruled Johnson and defensive end Dawuane Smoot out. Johnson has not been placed on injured reserve yet as the Bills are still weighing their options, but it looks as if he’s going to be down for at least a couple more weeks. Smoot is still battling a toe injury which is delaying his Bills’ debut.
Defensive end Javon Solomon (oblique) and running back Ty Johnson (knee) were both limited in practice Tuesday so it seems possible that they could be available for the game. Solomon did not play in Week 1, but with Smoot out, the Bills would probably like to get him active rather than calling up Kameron Cline from the practice squad for the second week in a row.
- Week 1: Sunday, Sept . 8, vs. Arizona Cardinals, W 34-28
- Week 2: Thursday, Sept. 12, at Miami Dolphins, 8:15 p.m.
- Week 3: Monday, Sept. 23, vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 7:30 p.m.
- Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 29, at Baltimore Ravens, 8:20 p.m.
- Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 6, at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
- Week 6: Monday, Oct. 14, at New York Jets, 8:15 p.m.
- Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 20, vs Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
- Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 27, at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m.
- Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 3, vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
- Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 10, at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
- Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 17, vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m.
- Week 12: Nov. 24, BYE WEEK
- Week 13: Sunday Dec. 1, vs. San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 p.m.
- Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 8, at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m.
- Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 15, at Detroit Lions, 4:25 p.m.
- Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 22, vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
- Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 29, vs. New York Jets, 1 p.m.
- Week 18: Sunday, Jan. 5, at New England Patriots, TBD
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, and he has written numerous books about the history of the team. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins prediction, keys to Thursday Night Football
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