3 questions the Bills must answer to avoid another ugly loss to the Jaguars

ORCHARD PARK - There is really no single explanation for it, but the Jacksonville Jaguars have been a peculiarly prickly thorn in the side for the Buffalo Bills in recent years.

Since Sean McDermott became head coach in 2017, the Bills are 1-3 against this team including an ugly wild-card playoff loss that first season , probably the only meeting where you could honestly say the Jaguars were the better team.

In 2018 when both teams entered the game at Highmark Stadium with matching 3-7 records, it was rookie Josh Allen’s first game back after a four-week absence due to an elbow injury and though he completed only eight passes, the Bills’ defense keyed a narrow 24-21 victory.

Then in 2021, when Allen was no longer a rookie and had ascended into the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks, the Bills suffered one of their most inexplicable losses ever, a disgraceful 9-6 clunker to the 1-6 Jaguars who were coached by Urban Meyer and quarterbacked by rookie Trevor Lawrence. This game was so egregious, it will hold a spot in the top 10 of worst Bills losses for quite a while.

The list: The Buffalo Bills worst losses in history

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And then last season in London, the Bills dropped a 25-20 decision on a day when the defense started without injured Tre’Davious White, Greg Rousseau and Christian Benford and then lost Matt Milano and DaQuan Jones in the first quarter, but injuries aside, Buffalo also made so many mistakes in every phase that it was hard to keep track of it all.

Yeah, the Bills have had a Jaguars problem, and now they get them Monday night in Orchard Park arriving as a wounded and ornery dog after they lost to the Dolphins and Browns. With the Texans already off to a 2-0 start in the AFC South, the Jaguars - coming off a terrible ending to the 2023 season when they coughed up the division and a playoff berth - will be a motivated team and the Bills are likely going to have their hands full.

Here are three questions going into the game:

1. Can Joe Brady get the wide receivers more involved?

The Bills’ offensive coordinator has shown, even dating back to mid-2023 when he took over for Ken Dorsey , that he wants to establish the run and work the passing game off of that base philosophy. So far, Josh Allen has thrown for just 371 yards , but the Bills are 2-0 so who’s to argue with the approach?

“I think the biggest thing is throughout the season, just finding different ways to win,” Brady said. “Whether it’s … win up front rushing the football, or there’s gonna come a time and place when we’re gonna have to throw the ball 50 times. It’s about us just being willing to be able to adjust to how the games being played and being able to dictate the terms also that, hey we can win any way that we need to.”

But when that time does come when Allen has to wing it 50 times, who is going to be on the receiving end because outside of Khalil Shakir, who is so reliable and consistent, there’s been not much from anyone else. Granted, the Miami game script was unique because of what happened and the Bills spending most of the second half essentially trying to get the clock to triple zeroes, but through two games, Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman, Marques Valdes-Scantling and Mack Hollins have combined for just 10 catches for 113 yards.

That used to be a routine game for Stefon Diggs. Taking it further, Dalton Kincaid, who many of us thought would be the primary target in the passing game, has a mere five catches for 44 yards and just one of those resulted in a first down.

Samuel’s usage has really been puzzling. The man they gave a three-year, $24 million contract to in free agency has played 27% of the snaps in each of the first two games.

“We’re just trying to find the open guy and get everybody involved,” Allen said. “But guys are stepping up to the plate and making plays when their numbers are called. “(Thursday night) was a weird one because you got the ball (in Miami territory) three different possessions. It’s not going to be eye-popping numbers on the stat sheet, but when you can put up those type of numbers on the scoreboard that’s all you care about.”

2. Are Dorian Williams and Baylon Spector up to this challenge?

In late July when the Bills arrived at St. John Fisher University , there was plenty of excitement regarding the linebacker duo of Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard, and for good reason. Milano, an All-Pro level player, was returning after missing more than two-thirds of 2023, and Bernard was coming off a Pro Bowl-level season, his first as a starter.

Imagine the havoc these two guys could create in the second level of Buffalo’s defense. Well, two weeks into the season, Milano is sidelined until at least December, and now Bernard joins him for probably a month , leaving the linebacking duties to Williams and Spector.

Williams once again looks like a liability in pass coverage as he did last season, and Spector is a great unknown because he’s been hurt so much since joining the Bills in 2022. All we’ve really seen him do is play special teams until he took over for Bernard early against the Dolphins, and then he and Williams both racked up 10 tackles.

“I think Baylon did a good job,” defensive coordinator Bobby Babich said. “You gotta be ready to go and we pour into those guys, into those backups, to make sure that we get a high level of execution. He has another year, like all these guys, to get more comfortable. When I was the linebackers coach, I challenged him to be in control of our operation and run the operation like a Mike linebacker does for the Buffalo Bills , and you know he’s shown that he can do that.”

3. Is Von Miller close to being Von Miller?

Many fans and media members had given up on the aging edge rusher after his nightmarish no-show in 2023 coming off ACL surgery. But so far, the 35-year-old looks rejuvenated and he has recorded a sack in each of the two games.

“It was really cool to see Von back to being Von,” Babich said. “Encouraged because a little bit more confidence for him coming off of last year, hopefully it’ll do wonders for him.”

According to Pro Football Focus, Miller has been on the field for 41 pass rush snaps and he has already produced nine pressures and has a pass rush win rate of 22% which leads the team. For comparison, Rousseau, who had three sacks in the opener, has a 16.1% win rate on 56 pass rush snaps.

Allen said after the Miami game that he went up to Miller in the locker and said, “You look like Von Miller tonight. That’s what I told him. He had one spin move, he didn’t get there, but one spin move that was pretty scary.”

The Bills are being judicious with Miller’s snap counts which is smart as he played 29 in each game, and having him fresh throughout the game and being able to deploy him in passing situation has worked well.

“Like I said last week, just feels good to be able to do your job on a short week, especiallyat 35 years old,” Miller said.

Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, and he has written numerous books about the history of the team. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: 3 questions the Bills must answer to avoid another ugly loss to the Jaguars