Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens prediction, keys to Sunday Night football

ORCHARD PARK - Like the rest of the football-crazy country, Buffalo Bills edge rusher Von Miller was watching on the NFL’s opening Thursday night when the Baltimore Ravens visited the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.

And though the Chiefs went on to win that game, barely holding on at the end, what caught Miller’s attention was the sight of two of the league most destructive players - Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry - operating in the same Baltimore offense.

“That first drive, it just looked scary,” Miller said of the Ravens starting the game by running it right down the Chiefs’ throats on the way to Henry’s five-yard TD run. “You got Derrick Henry back there, and Lamar Jackson always has the threat to take the ball and run it. It was straight down the field and into the end zone. And I remember watching the game on TV, and I was like, ‘This is going to be a problem.’”

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Sunday night, that dynamic duo will be the problem of Miller and the rest of the Bills’ defense, and how the Bills fare in that aspect of this showdown could very well determine the outcome.

“Derrick Henry is his own monster in itself,” Miller continued. “I train with Derrick Henry in the offseason at Sanders Field in Dallas, so I know what type of guy he is, I know what type of special player he is. And Lamar Jackson, everybody knows about Lamar Jackson - league MVP, one of the most dynamic players that ever played in this game, not just quarterback.”

Henry has 281 yards rushing in his first three games for the Ravens which ranks fifth in the NFL, and the combination of Henry and Jackson (eighth with 254 yards) has the Ravens No. 2 in the NFL in rushing at 203.3 yards per game.

Of course, this challenge is nothing new for the Bills regarding Henry. He tortured them when he starred for the Titans - in five games he rushed for 359 yards and seven TDs, though the Bills did win three times . Now he’s 30 years old with a new team, but nothing changes because he’s still a beast.

Last week he had 151 yards and two TDs against the Cowboys, his 12th career game with at least 150 yards and two TDs, tied with LaDainian Tomlinson for second-most in NFL history behind only Jim Brown (13).

“It’s incredible what he’s been able to do with his career. Future Hall of Famer, right?” Bills coach Sean McDermott said. “Seems like it’s a marriage made in heaven with what they do and how coach (John) Harbaugh wants to play.”

Stopping Baltimore’s running game is probably the biggest task facing Buffalo Sunday. Here are four more keys to the game for the Bills:

Keep Lamar Jackson in the pocket is critical

As dangerous as Josh Allen is when he leaves the pocket to run, Jackson is on a different level with his speed and athleticism as everyone saw in that Chiefs games when he ran for 122 yards, seven of his attempts resulting in first downs, and 70 of his yards coming on nine scrambles.

Henry is going to get his yards because he always does, but the Bills need to limit the damage Jackson does and a big part of that is to get pressure on him to hurry his process as a passer, but secondarily, keep him contained in the pocket. He has been pressured on 23% of his dropbacks thus far and he’s just 8 of 15 for 116 yards on those plays, but when he takes off and runs, he’s a soul-crusher to a defense just like Allen is.

“You know the animal you’re hunting,” edge rusher AJ Epenesa said. “Obviously, he’s got a lot of talent, a lot of skill and speed and athleticism, so he makes it hard to keep him in the pocket with what he’s able to do, but that’s our goal - collapse the pocket on him, make him feel like the walls are coming down and crashing in and just get him down. We know he can extend plays. We’ve just got to be disciplined with our rush and rush together. Work together and that’ll help us a whole lot.”

The Bills’ have been excellent against the pass as they rank second in yards allowed per attempt (4.4), 10th in completion percentage allowed (62.1) and 12th in sack percentage (8.66%). They can get after QBs, and that’s assisted by their outside CB duo of Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas being able to take first reads away by locking their men down and they can certainly do the same against Baltimore’s WRs Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman.

This could be another big Josh Allen game

The Ravens have the best run defense in the NFL as they are allowing just 2.8 yards per attempt, though having faced only 53 running plays thus far, that’s not a great sample size. However, the flip side to that is the Ravens have been leaky against the pass as they rank dead last in passing yards allowed per game (291.7), 28th in yards allowed per attempt (7.5), and 19th in completion percentage allowed (66.6%).

Part of that has been game flow as the Raiders in Week 2 and the Cowboys in Week 3 had to abandon the run game and throw because they each trailed by double digits into the fourth quarter, but that said, Gardner Minshew rallied Las Vegas to victory through the air, and Dak Prescott finished with 379 yards and threw a late scare into the Ravens.

Allen leads the NFL in passer rating at 133.7, he has not thrown an interception and has been sacked just twice behind an offensive line that has played very well. The Ravens, who led the NFL in sacks a year ago, have not been generating the same pressure, even though their blitz rate is slightly up this season.

However, if they decide to blitz Allen, watch out. Allen has been blitzed 30 times according to Pro Football Focus, he has not been sacked and he is 19 of 25 for 252 yards and five TDs. His success is tied to good protection and of course his ability to extend plays, but also, Joe Brady has given him effective easy button throws to get the ball out of his hand.

The Bills have used motion on the vast majority of their passing plays this season and that is clearly helping Allen identify coverage. And when he knows what the defense is doing, he has been outstanding in getting the ball to the open man because he has so many targets who are contributing to the offense.

Bills must play clean on special teams

The Bills have committed only two penalties on special teams, one for unnecessary roughness, the other for a kickoff out of bounds. That needs to continue because the Ravens don’t need any gift yardage. The Ravens, who lead the NFL with 31 total penalties for 278 yards, have committed five on special teams.

However, the Bills have also had some rough moments on special teams. They gave up a kickoff return TD in the opener, Tyler Bass has missed a field goal, had an extra point blocked and had that terrible kick out of bounds late against Arizona that put the defense in a difficult spot trying to close out that game. In what should be a close game against Baltimore, mistakes like that can be fatal.

While confidence is not running high on Bass, in a rather shocking development, Baltimore’s superstar kicker Justin Tucker has started poorly. He has made only five of his first eight kicks and for the man who is the NFL’s all-time leader in in field goal accuracy at 89.6%, that’s obviously unusual.

Beyond the kicking, field position will be crucial, particularly on a night when it’s supposed to rain. Ball security will obviously be a priority on offense, but that also extends to handling kicks. Brandon Codrington has been solid so far for the Bills and his 16.0 average on punt returns is second in the NFL.

Baltimore’s return man is ex-Bill Deonte Harty who, when given a chance in space can be dangerous. Remember his 96-yard punt return TD in the season finale against Miami which flipped that game and allowed the Bills to rally to win, giving them the AFC East title?

Take advantage of the Ravens fourth-quarter problems

For whatever reason, Baltimore has not been a team that closes game very well and that’s surprising given how well it can run the ball. The Ravens blew a 23-13 fourth-quarter lead and inexplicably lost to the Raiders, then were up 28-6 in Dallas last week and the Cowboys nearly pulled off a miracle rally.

The Ravens have been outscored by 22 points in their three fourth quarters this season and this has continued a disturbing trend because since 2021, the Ravens have lost 10 games when they were leading by at least a touchdown in the fourth quarter. For a team as accomplished and well-coached as Baltimore, that’s pretty startling.

“It definitely is a mental thing in terms of just playing the defense the same way you play it for the first three quarters,” Harbaugh said. “The calls really aren’t any different, so we’re fully capable of doing that. It’s a playmaking business. These guys are the best in the world at it. I love our guys - we have so many playmakers. I’m confident that we’ll be able to do that.”

Sal’s prediction: Ravens 23, Bills 17

The Bills are flying high at 3-0 and coming off a tremendous performance against the Jaguars , but this is a tough spot. With the Steelers off to a 3-0 start, the Ravens are already two games behind in the AFC North and as one of the highly-rated Super Bowl contenders going into the season, they can’t continue to keep stumbling. They’re coming off a nice win in Dallas, while the Bills are on the road on what is a short week, and they might be due for a bit of a come down. Defense will rule the night and Baltimore is the more desperate team.

Bills vs. Ravens Injury report

Once again, the Bills will be without NCB Taron Johnson and LB Terrel Bernard, so Cam Lewis and Baylon Spector will start. It’s crazy to say, but the Bills have not missed Johnson or Bernard yet, but this will be the defense’s biggest challenge to date, particularly in defending the run.

The Bills placed backup offensive lineman Tylan Grable on injured reserve with a core muscle injury, so Ryan Van Demark is back as the swing tackle. Also, backup CB Kaiir Elam is dealing with a neck injury.

Buffalo Bills 2024 schedule

• Week 1: Sunday, Sept . 8, vs. Arizona Cardinals, W 34-28
• Week 2: Thursday, Sept. 12, at Miami Dolphins, W 31-10
• Week 3: Monday, Sept. 23, vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, W 47-10
• Preview Week 4 : Sunday, Sept. 29, at Baltimore Ravens, 8:20 p.m., NBC
• Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 6, at Houston Texans, 1 p.m., CBS
• Week 6: Monday, Oct. 14, at New York Jets, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
• Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 20, vs. Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m., CBS
• Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 27, at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m., FOX
• Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 3, vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m., CBS
• Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 10, at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m., CBS
• Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 10, vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m., CBS
• Week 12: Bye
• Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 1, vs. San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 p.m., NBC
• Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 8, at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m., FOX
• Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 15, at Detroit Lions, 4:25 p.m., CBS
• Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 22, vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m., CBS
• Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 29, vs. New York Jets, 1 p.m. CBS
• Week 18: Sunday, Jan. 5, at New England Patriots, time and TV channel TBD

Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, and he has written numerous books about the history of the team. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

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This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens prediction, keys to Sunday Night football