Buffalo Bills vs NY Jets prediction, keys to Monday Night Football game

ORCHARD PARK - Unless there is some serious bad karma floating around at MetLife Stadium Monday night - which isn’t exactly out of the ordinary for the New York Jets - the Buffalo Bills are going to get a much longer look at quarterback Aaron Rodgers than they did on their last visit.

That was a pretty unforgettable night, the 2023 season opener when the Meadowlands could not have been buzzing more about the debut of Rodgers in a Gang Green uniform, only to see the life get sucked out of the building when he tore his Achilles and was lost for the season on just the fourth snap of the game.

And while the Jets somehow found a way to rise above that nightmarish event to stun the Bills on a walk-off punt return touchdown in overtime , their season was essentially cooked with Rodgers gone and they finished 7-10, extending the NFL’s longest playoff drought to 13 years.

As that connects to Monday night’s battle for first place in the AFC East between these longtime rivals, the Jets’ implosion last year coupled with their 2-3 start this year all conspired to push owner Woody Johnson to fire head coach Robert Saleh and promote defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, a move that has created a little chaos regarding this game.

Will this motivate the Jets and lead to them playing up to their potential as a team that many NFL observers believed would end Buffalo’s four-year reign atop the division? Or will the upheaval work against them as they try to settle in with a new head coach, and the offensive and defensive plays being called by two different coaches?

“Well, we got to lock arms and raise the level of our play,” Rodgers said. “Spotlight’s on the players now. You can change coaches, but we're the one's out there on the field playing, so we got to play better, but we got to stick together, and get behind Brick and move forward.”

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From Buffalo’s side, the Bills are perfectly aware that teams often respond positively in the first game after a coaching change , so they know they will likely get a very focused Jets team.

“I think it’s a tough situation to be in when a team fires their coach because you’re not sure how they’re going to react to that,” Josh Allen said in reference to one of the many challenges the Bills will be confronted with. “My sense is they’re going to be prepared to go Monday night. We’re going to have to handle every shot they throw at us and keep getting back up and moving forward. Have to have a great sense of urgency.”

Here’s my preview of the game, followed by my prediction:

Josh Allen better be wearing his track shoes

As of Saturday morning, it’s not looking like RB James Cook is going to play . He has missed all of practice this week with a toe injury, so the expectation is that he’ll be inactive and the Bills will have to rely on backups Ty Johnson and rookie Ray Davis . Obviously it’s not ideal when you lose a player who ranks 15th in the NFL in yards gained from scrimmage (432) and has been the Bills’ best offensive player outside of Allen.

So, if Cook is out, Allen is going to have to play a big role in the run game and he’ll have opportunities because the Jets are a team that plays man pass coverage about 36% of the time and it’s always a little easier for Allen to tuck it and run when defenders have their backs turned.

The worry with Allen running too much is that he’s banged up. He’s been dealing with a hand injury and last week he hurt his chest and ankle, and also banged his head on the ground though he apparently escaped a concussion.

If the Bills can get something out of Johnson and/or Davis, great, but that’s a reach. The Jets are seventh in the NFL at 4.2 yards per rush allowed because they’re stout in the middle with stud DT Quinnen Williams, and LBs Quincy Williams and CJ Mosley are so athletic. Mosley missed last week’s loss to the Vikings but it’s looking like he’ll be back for this game which is not great for the Bills.

Dalton Kincaid needs to wake up

Five games into the season, we know the Bills’ wide receiver group isn’t very good. And if Khalil Shakir , the only one in the group who has played well and produced, is going to miss a second game, the only way the Bills stand much of a chance of throwing against this outstanding Jets’ pass defense is for Kincaid to have a breakout game.

I’m not pinning all of the offensive problems the past couple weeks solely on the receivers because Kincaid has been a dud so far in 2024. There was a lot of preseason talk about how he was going to be the No. 1 passing game target with Stefon Diggs gone, similar to the way the Chiefs operate their passing game through Travis Kelce.

But outside of the nice touchdown he caught against Jacksonville, he has been a low impact player with just 15 catches for 166 yards, a yardage total that ranks 16th among all tight ends. That’s not nearly good enough for a 2023 first-round pick who was selected in that spot because the Bills saw him as a true difference maker.

Kincaid had a very good rookie year in terms of catches, 73, which set a Bills record for a tight end and was seventh among all NFL tight ends. But there was also a dearth of truly big plays among all those receptions and if the Bills were being honest, they would admit that. Among the 18 tight ends who were targeted at least 70 times last year, his 9.2 average per reception ranked 15th.

Jets CBs Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed, arguably the best duo in the league, will almost certainly take away the outside receivers, so Allen has to find success in the short areas to his backs, maybe Dawson Knox , and then strike for big plays to Kincaid, especially if the Jets’ fine nickel corner, Michael Carter, can’t play. Another factor: Allen has to be patient because when the Jets allow receptions, they have given up the fewest yards after catch in the league, just 303. Compare that to the normally stingy Bills defense which has allowed the eighth-most at 597.

Bills’ pass rush needs to succeed

Rodgers will be 41 in a couple months and it’s clear he’s not nearly as mobile as he once was, and he’s got a sore ankle which should further limit his escapability. In the last two games, the Broncos and Vikings, the teams that blitz the most in the NFL, were true to form and it worked as the Jets’ offensive line allowed 47 pressures, 25 QB hits and eight sacks on 104 dropbacks combined in those games.

The Bills are the lowest blitz rate team in the NFL at 15.3%, and for good reason because they aren’t very good at it. Last week they turned it up to 25.3% against Houston’s CJ Stroud and it backfired as he completed 8 of 9 passes when blitzed for 120 yards. This is why the Bills’ front four has to be productive because even though they managed a season-best 42.9% pressure rate against Stroud, they recorded just one sack and he threw for 331 yards.

Greg Rousseau is winning on 18% of his pass rush reps and leads the Bills with 21 pressures, but he hasn’t had a sack since getting three in the opener against Arizona. AJ Epenesa is winning on just 7.5% of his pass rush reps, has only nine pressures and one sack. Without Von Miller, these two have to be better than they’ve been.

Same goes for the interior defenders as they have to collapse the pocket and try to feed Rodgers to the edge rushers. The Bills might not have Ed Oliver or Austin Johnson so that’ll hurt, but last week, rookie DeWayne Carter played well so maybe he can build on that performance.

Keep Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall in check

The Jets’ best two offensive players have both gotten off to slow starts. Wilson emerged last week against the Vikings because Rodgers spent most of the day throwing his way, a whopping 22 targets after he’d had only 34 in the first four games. He caught 13 of those, but they went for only 101 yards because all 22 throws had less than 10 yards or travel.

Getting Taron Johnson back this week would be huge for Buffalo because Wilson lines up in the slot about one-third of the time and Johnson should be able to hold him in check. Cam Lewis has been a mess the last two weeks and for the season, he has allowed 33 receptions on 39 targets for 312 yards and he has also missed 10 tackles.

When Wilson is outside, both Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas have been very good this year, and it looks like FS Taylor Rapp will be back which will get rookie Cole Bishop off the field.

Looking at last year’s two games is pointless because Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle were throwing for the Jets and Wilson had just seven catches for 43 yards against the Bills. He’ll have a much better chance to impact the game with Rodgers, which is why the Bills need to stay on top of him.

As for Hall, it’s been a bizarre start for him as he’s averaging just 3.0 yards per carry, though he has been useful as a receiver with 21 catches for 148 yards. Hall showed what he’s capable of in the season opener last year when he broke an 83-yard run against Buffalo. Now he’s facing a defense that ranks dead last in the NFL at 5.2 yards allowed per attempt, is also last in average yards allowed before contact at 2.28, and has been burned for 22 runs of at least 10 yards which is tied for third-most in the league.

Sal’s prediction: Jets 20, Bills 16

When I made my original pick early in the week, I had the Bills winning the game. Now that the Jets have switched head coaches, and it’s looking like both Cook and Shakir will be unable to play for an offense that is already struggling mightily, I have to switch. My sense is that the Jets defense, which remains one of the best in the league, is going to give the Bills’ punchless offense fits, and the Jets are also going to get an inspired effort as they play for a new head coach, plus will have passing game coordinator Todd Downing calling the offensive plays instead of beleaguered Nathaniel Hackett.

Buffalo Bills schedule 2024

• Week 1: Sunday, Sept . 8, vs. Arizona Cardinals, W 34-28
• Week 2: Thursday, Sept. 12, at Miami Dolphins, W 31-10
• Week 3: Monday, Sept. 23, vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, W 47-10
• Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 29, at Baltimore Ravens, L, 10-35
• Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 6, at Houston Texans, L, 20-23
• Preview Week 6 : Monday, Oct. 14, at New York Jets, 8:15 p.m.
• Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 20, vs Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
• Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 27, at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m.
• Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 3, vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
• Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 10, at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
• Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 17, vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m.
• Week 12: Nov. 24, BYE WEEK
• Week 13: Sunday Dec. 1, vs. San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 p.m.
• Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 8, at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m.
• Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 15, at Detroit Lions, 4:25 p.m.
• Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 22, vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
• Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 29, vs. New York Jets, 1 p.m.
• Week 18: Sunday, Jan. 5, at New England Patriots, TBD

Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, and he has written numerous books about the history of the team. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

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This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Buffalo Bills vs NY Jets prediction, keys to Monday Night Football game