Denver's weather forecast is accurate only 2 days out

Mother Nature loves to keep everyone guessing in the Mile High City.

The latest: A new Washington Post analysis of government weather data shared publicly for the first time reveals Denver's weather is among the most unpredictable in the nation.

• That's because its forecast is accurate only two days in advance compared to other places like Miami, where it's correct a week into the future.

Why it matters: Studies show accurate weather predictions can be lifesaving, especially when heat waves hit.

The intrigue: It's easier to predict Denver's weather in warmer months (April through September) compared to cooler ones (October through March), per the Post's analysis.

Zoom in: Paonia, a small town tucked on Colorado's Western Slope, takes the prize for having the country's least accurate temperature forecast due to its topography, the Post found.

• On average, Paonia's 24-hour temperature forecast is off by a whopping 6 degrees.

Zoom out: Other Colorado cities with unpredictable weather include Aurora, Boulder and Fort Collins, whose forecasts are accurate only two days out, like Denver's.

• More reliable forecasts in the state can be found in places like Grand Junction, where the prediction is accurate five days out, and Colorado Springs, where it's three days.

What they did: The Post analyzed a year's worth of National Weather Service forecasts and forecast errors spanning April 2023 through this March to find how often they were correct within 3 degrees of the actual temperature that day.

The big picture: How accurate the weather forecast is depends on where you live.

• Coastal regions are simpler to predict because of the way the ocean regulates temperature; southwest desert areas are also easier due to arid conditions.
• The vast middle of the U.S., however, sees quick and significant temperature swings that result in the least accurate forecasts in the country.

Yes, but: Data shows temperature forecasts nationwide have been steadily improving over the last 50 years.

• "It's one of those quiet revolutions," Weather Prediction Center director David Novak told the Post.