Preview: UFC on ESPN 59 ‘Namajunas vs. Cortez’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday returns to Denver for the first time in nearly six years, and UFC on ESPN 59 follows what has become a familiar refrain. A lot of last-minute changes were required, but the company regrouped enough to put together a solid show at Ball Arena. As far as the main card goes, the central point of intrigue remains the headliner. Rose Namajunas was initially slated to serve as the next big test for top flyweight prospect Maycee Barber , but she instead faces short-notice replacement Tracy Cortez in a fight that still represents an interesting step up in competition for one of the flyweight division’s top rising talents. From there, the featured bouts are mostly matched for action, even if the co-main event between Santiago Ponzinibbio and Muslim Salikhov is probably more about what they have accomplished than what they can currently provide. Drew Dober and Jean Silva seem guaranteed to bring violence; hard-charging welterweight Gabriel Bonfim should make something happen; and a featherweight tilt pitting Julian Erosa against Christian Rodriguez figures to provide a torrid pace.

Now to the UFC on ESPN 59 “Namajunas vs. Cortez” preview:

Women’s Flyweights

#7 P4P | Rose Namajunas (12-6, 11-5 UFC) vs. #11 WFLW | Tracy Cortez (11-1, 5-0 UFC)

ODDS: Namajunas (-218), Cortez (+180)

Still somehow just 32 years old, Namajunas has enough time to make a dedicated run at flyweight, even if the former strawweight champion feels quite directionless at the moment. Namajunas was tabbed for stardom almost immediately upon her professional debut, scoring a flying armbar in her second fight that made her one of the top prospects to watch on the women’s side. When the UFC decided to launch its strawweight division through “The Ultimate Fighter” a year later, Namajunas was an obvious choice for the cast and wound up being a standout of the season, both in terms of being an engaging personality and winning her way to a championship fight against Carla Esparza . That fight ended in a one-sided win for Esparza, the season’s favorite all along, as she outwrestled Namajunas without much of an issue. However, “Thug Rose” still recovered to become one of the division’s biggest fan favorites and most engaging personalities. Namajunas is about the clearest case there is for fighting being a mental sport, and she has worn her struggles on her sleeve at times inside the cage. A decision loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz in 2016 that would have set her up for a title shot with a win was a stark example of the narrative that Namajunas couldn’t stand up to a bullying fighter. Namajunas did eventually work her way back to a title shot against Joanna Jedrzejczyk in 2017. Her issues became the center of the buildup, with Jedrzejczyk essentially promising that she would mentally break her challenger. That made it all the more cathartic when Namajunas put together the best performance of her career to win the title in three minutes, then defended it in a hard-fought rematch that showed she wouldn’t crumble under adversity. Unfortunately, the narrative from there wasn’t quite so clean, starting with Namajunas’ next title defense against Jessica Andrade . Namajunas looked the sharpest she ever has while picking Andrade apart in the first round, but the fight ended in the second when the Brazilian picked her up in a clinch exchange and slammed her on her head, winning the strawweight title and kicking off the first of many teases that “Thug Rose” might retire. Namajunas did eventually regroup after a long layoff, recapturing the title against Weili Zhang before defending it in another hard-fought struggle, but whatever momentum was reclaimed by that run went away just as quickly with her infamous rematch against Esparza. The less that is said about the fight the better, but Namajunas was apparently so concerned with the takedown threat that Esparza offered in their first fight that she focused almost exclusively on defense, resulting in five rounds of inaction. The judges sided with Esparza, who also didn’t accomplish much of anything. So came another retirement tease and another long layoff, with Namajunas’ eventual return in September kicking off a run at flyweight that has been a mixed bag. A loss to Manon Fiorot was mostly written off thanks to Namajunas breaking her finger almost immediately, and her bounce-back win over Amanda Ribas was a workmanlike performance in which she looked steady but also didn’t pop to the level that she has in the past. The initial pairing here against Barber didn’t look like a particularly advantageous matchup for Namajunas, but Cortez steps in for what should be a more interesting fight.

This marks a long-overdue big spot for Cortez, who has overachieved greatly since signing with the UFC in 2019 and gotten surprisingly little in terms of a promotional push for her troubles. Cortez was essentially a lock to get a contract with a win on Dana White’s Contender Series back in 2019. Beyond her marketable look, her inspirational life story of fighting in her brother’s memory made it almost impossible to turn her away. Cortez got the win and the contract, but her victory didn’t exactly seem to set her up for success, as it backed up the scouting report that she was a one-dimensional wrestler dealing with some thin margins. Cortez has, in fact, turned out to be a pure wrestler for most of her UFC career, but she has proven to be good enough at her core skills that everything else hasn’t mattered. She impressively held her own for two fights at bantamweight before dropping down to 125 pounds, where she has continued to successfully embrace the grind while proving nearly impossible to outgrapple. A September win over Jasmine Jasudavicius felt like a bit of a coming-out party for Cortez as a potential top contender, as she mostly eschewed her wrestling to show off a surprisingly impressive striking game, so the main question remaining was when exactly the UFC would pull the trigger on her promotionally. Even though she was now firmly in the UFC’s flyweight rankings, all but one of her fights were buried on the prelims. Initially, it seemed like she was set to tread water once again with a matchup against Miranda Maverick next week that once was once again set to take place on the prelims, but Barber’s injury opened the door for Cortez to finally get the biggest shot of her career. It’s a well-matched fight with some obvious concerns for both fighters. Cortez is getting the more massive jump up in level of competition, but it’s still unclear exactly how well Namajunas holds up physically as a flyweight. Cortez’s bruising style figures to ask that question both early and often. Even with a full training camp, this fight might be a call for Namajunas. She hasn’t quite had the snap on the feet that she had at 115 pounds, but she’s still capable of setting a range and sniping away at Cortez at a level that most opponents haven’t been able to provide. Add in that this is a tricky spot for Cortez to take a fight on late notice—it’s her first five-round fight, takes place at elevation and poses a vastly different style matchup from facing a stocky wrestler such as Maverick—and the bet is that the former strawweight champ can eventually coast this out. The pick is Namajunas via decision.

Continue Reading »
Namajunas vs. Cortez
Ponzinibbio vs. Salikhov
Dober vs. Silva
Bonfim vs. Loosa
Rodriguez vs. Erosa
Alhassan vs. Brundage
The Prelims

Welterweights

Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-7, 11-6 UFC) vs. Muslim Salikhov (19-5, 6-4 UFC)

ODDS: Ponzinibbio (-205), Salikhov (+170)

Two old dogs look to recapture some magic here. Ponzinibbio had a middling start to his UFC career but eventually reeled off seven straight wins, capping things off with a dominant main event victory over Neil Magny to finish the UFC’s first card in his native Argentina back in 2018. It felt like a huge breakthrough moment for Ponzinibbio and a launching pad to some big things. Instead, it now feels like the end of Ponzinibbio’s peak. A career-threatening staph infection would cause Ponzinibbio to miss over two years, and he hasn’t been nearly the same fighter upon his return. His return bout against Jingliang Li was fairly dire—Ponzinibbio got knocked out within a round—but he has been a gamer in every fight since then. His reflexes are slower and he now takes a while to get warmed up, but he has able to gain steam as his fights go on and gut out some tough fights, taking Geoff Neal and Michel Pereira to split decision losses and scoring a late finish of Alex Morono . Things went the inverse against Kevin Holland in Ponzinibbio’s last bout 15 months ago—he was putting together a solid performance until Holland suddenly knocked him out—but the “Argentine Dagger” is still viable, even if the story of his career will likely center around what could have been. On the other side of the equation is Salikhov, who seems to be in a tougher spot at the moment. With the resume in wushu sanda to back up his “King of Kung Fu” nickname, Salikhov came to the UFC in 2017 with a solid amount of hype that was almost immediately deflated, as his promotional debut saw him get taken down and tapped out by Alex Garcia . Salikhov eventually found his level, sometimes with spectacular results. It might take some stretches of tedium for Salikhov to set things up and pick his spots, but he has been able to time some sensational knockouts. After capping off 2022 with one of those finishes against Andre Fialho , there is some worry that Salikhov might be falling off for good. A flat performance against Nicolas Dalby was understandable, but getting quickly knocked out by Randy Brown raises a whole new level of concern. Salikhov might wind up looking better against Ponzinibbio, who’s his slowest opponent in a while, but the Argentinian seems like the much more effective fighter in 2024, even if it might take him a while to get going. The pick is Ponzinibbio via third-round stoppage.

Continue Reading »
Namajunas vs. Cortez
Ponzinibbio vs. Salikhov
Dober vs. Silva
Bonfim vs. Loosa
Rodriguez vs. Erosa
Alhassan vs. Brundage
The Prelims

Lightweights

Drew Dober (27-13, 13-9 UFC) vs. Jean Silva (13-2, 2-0 UFC)

ODDS: Dober (-110), Silva (-110)

Silva is in action for the second straight UFC event, and this marks a big chance for the Brazilian to make 2024 his breakout year. Silva earned a contract on the Contender Series in 2023 with a workmanlike decision win that showed off his strengths and weaknesses. He’s clearly in the upper tier of powerful athletes and was never in much danger during his fight, but despite a pressure-heavy style, he can be overly choosy in picking his spots to throw some hard offense. That latter issue has persisted in two UFC bouts thus far, but it also hasn’t mattered much. Westin Wilson was clearly unable to stand up to Silva in his UFC debut, but his win over Charles Jourdain two weeks ago was a much more impressive bit of business, as he walked down and stifled the Canadian before becoming the first person to knock him out. The one sour note from the Jourdain win was that Silva came in over the featherweight limit, but that shouldn’t be a concern as he turns around for a lightweight bout against Dober that could also serve as a fresh start in a new division. Dober’s a lesson in why it’s never completely safe to give up on a talent, as he showed little in his first few years on the UFC roster before suddenly developing into an exciting power puncher. Add in a historically granite chin, and Dober has been one of the most reliably entertaining and violent fighters in the UFC for the past half decade, even if his limitations have also been made quite clear. Dober doesn’t have much of an answer for an opponent who can bring any sort of consistent wrestling game to the table. After a decade in the UFC, there is the worry that some further cracks are starting to show for Dober, particularly after a May loss to Matt Frevola that saw him suffer a surprising knockout. Two fights later, it’s still unclear if that portended any loss of durability. A win over Ricky Glenn wasn’t set to test his chin, and a subsequent loss to Renato Carneiro mostly centered around Dober’s subpar wrestling defense. This might just be too much too soon for Silva, particularly while moving up a weight class, but the Brazilian appears durable in his own right; and it’s hard to doubt his knockout power after he just finished a fighter who’s as historically durable as Dober. The pick is Silva via second-round knockout.

Continue Reading »
Namajunas vs. Cortez
Ponzinibbio vs. Salikhov
Dober vs. Silva
Bonfim vs. Loosa
Rodriguez vs. Erosa
Alhassan vs. Brundage
The Prelims

Welterweights

Gabriel Bonfim (15-1, 2-1 UFC) vs. Ange Loosa (10-3, 2-1 UFC)

ODDS: Bonfim (-340), Loosa (+270)

Bonfim’s loss to Nicolas Dalby in November was a disappointing result for the Brazilian, so it will be interesting to see how “Marretinha” rebounds and adjusts going forward. Bonfim has mostly run through his professional opposition, rarely even making it out of the first round, but he did so in a way that looked sustainable up to a fairly high level. He showed a solid understanding of when to pick his spots and hunt for the knockout on the feet, and his combination of size and pressure often lured opponents into a sneakily vicious grappling game. Dalby, a seemingly indestructible veteran, figured to be Bonfim’s toughest test to date, but the Brazilian was able to pour on offense in the first round. When things turned against him, they turned sharply, as Dalby found Bonfim’s breaking point late in the second round and hit the accelerator to score the finish. Loosa makes for an interesting next test, as he has all the physical tools to give Bonfim another tough fight but is still attempting to find his own comfort against high-level competition. Loosa’s loss on the Contender Series to Jack Della Maddalena in 2021 has aged well, enough so that “The Last Ninja” got the UFC call within a year, after which he's put together a solid campaign. At first, Loosa was physically stout but overly cautious as he attempted to put together a technically sound game, but a September win over Rhys McKee was a much more aggressive and complete victory, even if he did have to survive some late trouble to hang on for the decision. That made his March showing against Bryan Battle a bit disappointing, as it suggested Loosa might still have to go through a few more growing pains. Battle’s combination of size and pressure took Loosa out of his game before the fight ended in a no contest thanks to an eye poke. Bonfim should find a similar amount of success early on, though things could go could go any number of ways from there. Loosa has never been finished, while Bonfim has never been to a decision. It’s unclear if Bonfim will tire quite as badly against an opponent like Loosa, who doesn’t force the issue nearly as much as Dalby does. Given that Bonfim seems guaranteed to at least find some success, he gets the nod. The pick is Bonfim via first-round submission.

Continue Reading »
Namajunas vs. Cortez
Ponzinibbio vs. Salikhov
Dober vs. Silva
Bonfim vs. Loosa
Rodriguez vs. Erosa
Alhassan vs. Brundage
The Prelims

Featherweights

Christian Rodriguez (11-1, 4-1 UFC) vs. Julian Erosa (29-11, 7-7 UFC)

ODDS: Rodriguez (-205), Erosa (+170)

Rodriguez had some steam as a prospect, but it was unclear how he would fare in a major promotion after a disappointing showing on the Contender Series in 2021. Rodriguez scored the win but wasn’t offered a contract, as he missed the bantamweight limit and put on a flat performance. “CeeRod” did eventually get the UFC call for an unsuccessful late-notice debut up at featherweight in 2022, and despite rebounding with a win over Joshua Weems to cap off the year, there were questions as to how his jack-of-all-trades and master-of-none approach would stay above water against better competition. A breakout 2023 answered those questions positively, as Rodriguez went on prospect killing duty by outworking and outlasting Raul Rosas Jr. and Cameron Saaiman . However, those victories did come with a catch: Both were contracted 135-pound bouts that saw Rodriguez miss the bantamweight limit once again. That necessitated a full-time move up to featherweight, which in turn brought concerns that Rodriguez—who leaned on a strength advantage to outwrestle Rosas and Saaiman—wouldn’t be as suited to survive against stronger competition. So far, so good. Isaac Dulgarian ragdolled him for about a round and a half before exhausting himself, once again allowing Rodriguez an opening to stage a late comeback and walk away with a decision win. Things might be a bit trickier against Erosa, who has found a successful niche as a veteran gatekeeper. It took three runs with the UFC before Erosa finally stuck in the big time, as he spent about a half decade bouncing between the promotion and the regional scene. Armed with an aggressive approach, Erosa was just defensively slick enough to stay out of trouble and overwhelm regional-level competition but slow enough that he mostly just walked into knockouts against UFC-level athletes. Erosa still gets sparked from time to time, but with well over a decade of fighting experience under his belt, “Juicy J” has enough defensive vision that he’s much better at avoiding an early knockout, allowing him to feel things out and eventually gain enough momentum to drag opponents through hell and eventually find their breaking point. Rodriguez is unlikely to break, but this does seem like an assignment where his issues finally come home to roost. He might not be a natural 145-pounder, doesn’t seem like much of a threat to catch Erosa cold and may have found the opponent he finally can’t outlast. The pick is Erosa via decision.

Continue Reading »
Namajunas vs. Cortez
Ponzinibbio vs. Salikhov
Dober vs. Silva
Bonfim vs. Loosa
Rodriguez vs. Erosa
Alhassan vs. Brundage
The Prelims

Middleweights

Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-6, 6-6 UFC) vs. Cody Brundage (10-6, 4-5 UFC)

ODDS: Alhassan (-162), Brundage (+136)

Brundage has consistently shown a clear ceiling, but he has put together a decent UFC career over the last three years. A former collegiate wrestler with a solid amount of athleticism, Brundage has gotten by with the kind of game planning a lot of fighters simply lack. He usually comes into a fight with a solid idea of whether or not to strike or wrestle and does well to stick to that approach. However, he also tends to fade over the long haul, as once things start to go south, Brundage doesn’t tend to have much of a backup plan, and while he can often remain a tough out, there’s usually a point where his fights turn into one-way traffic going against him. Such was the case in his last appearance, where he was the toughest test to date for uber-prospect Bo Nickal and survived into the second round. Here, he looks to rebound against Alhassan, who has had an unexpected evolution as a fighter, to say the least. A judoka by trade, Alhassan came to the UFC as about the purest one-round fighter there was on the roster. He would swing wildly and either knock out his opponent in minutes or tire out badly on his way to a decision loss. Somewhere around his fight against Joaquin Buckley early in 2022, Alhassan learned to pace himself and pick his spots, even banking some control time by turning his fights into a grind through the clinch and wrestling. It’s nowhere near as fun to watch but still results in Alhassan being dangerous in spots and a consistent knockout threat for as long as his fights last. Alhassan’s both powerful and durable, so while Brundage might get off to a hot start, it’s hard to see how he can turn that into either a finish or some long-term success. It seems quite likely that Alhassan will eventually be able to adjust to what Brundage brings to the table, at which point things should come to a quick and violent end. The pick is Alhassan via second-round knockout.

Continue Reading »
Namajunas vs. Cortez
Ponzinibbio vs. Salikhov
Dober vs. Silva
Bonfim vs. Loosa
Rodriguez vs. Erosa
Alhassan vs. Brundage
The Prelims