Ranking Utah’s schedule — its first in the Big 12 — from toughest to easiest

Utah has played four schools on its inaugural Big 12 Conference schedule — Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and BYU — regularly in the last decade.

The rest, however, will be relatively new experiences.

Utah faces UCF, Houston and Oklahoma State for the first time in the modern era and also plays Iowa State and TCU, both of whom have new coaching staffs since Utah played them, for the first time in over a decade.

To prepare for the new league, Utah’s coaching staff spent time in February looking at conference opponents — the first time offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig has done that in his career. Utah reconvened in June for another deep look at things like a three-safety defensive look, which is mostly unique to the Big 12.

“We just want to have an idea of their basic defensive philosophy and their personnel or identity of what they’re trying to get done on defense,” Ludwig said.

While there’s not as much familiarity heading into their first season in the Big 12, the good news for Utah is that its schedule — on paper — isn’t as tough as last year, when it was rated as the No. 29 hardest schedule by ESPN at season’s end.

This year, Utah’s strength of schedule is No. 72, thanks in part to missing teams such as Kansas State, Kansas and West Virginia.

That number will change throughout the season, however, as there are always teams that outperform or underperform relative to preseason expectations.

As Utah gets set for its first season in the Big 12 Conference, here’s our ranking of Utah’s 2024 schedule from toughest to easiest.

1. At Oklahoma State, Sep. 21

A September trip to Stillwater should be Utah’s toughest game of the season.

A raucous crowd will be waiting for the Utes at Boone Pickens Stadium for Utah’s first official conference game — despite playing Big 12 foe Baylor earlier in the season, it will be sanctioned as a nonconference game — and both teams should enter the game ranked.

In addition to the atmosphere, Oklahoma State is slated to be one of the contenders for the Big 12 title, bringing back all but one starter on both sides of the ball, including Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon II (1,732 rushing yards, 21 touchdowns), starting quarterback Alan Bowman (3,460 yards, 15 touchdowns, 14 interceptions), leading receiver Brennan Presley (991 yards, six touchdowns) and linebacker Nick Martin (140 tackles, six sacks, two interceptions).

This is as big of a September conference game as we can remember for the Utes, and it could help decide the Big 12 championship game in the long run.

Going into Stillwater against last year’s Big 12 runners-up is as big of a test as the Utes have on their schedule this season, and could set the tone for the season.

2. Arizona, Sep. 28

You could argue for either the Arizona game at Rice-Eccles Stadium or the trip to Orlando vs. UCF in this spot, but we’re going to give the nod to the Wildcats.

The Utes will be coming off what will likely be a hard-fought game at Oklahoma State, while the Wildcats have a bye entering Salt Lake City.

Yes, Arizona has a new coach, San Jose State’s Brent Brennan, after Nick Saban’s retirement set off a coaching carousel that resulted in Washington’s Kalen DeBoer taking the Alabama job and Arizona’s Jedd Fisch heading to Seattle.

What Brennan has going for him is the fact that his two most important players stayed in the desert instead of following Fisch to Washington.

Quarterback Noah Fifita, who threw for 2,869 yards and 25 touchdowns after taking over after Jayden de Laura was injured in week four, and receiver Tetairoa McMillan, who ranked fifth in the nation with 1,402 yards and 10 touchdowns, are back to power Arizona’s offense.

Utah got its taste of the duo last year in a 42-18 blowout, and are looking to exact some revenge.

There will be new faces at WR2 and running back, and there’s question marks along the defensive line, which returns no full-time starters from the 2023 team, but with a stable of returning starters elsewhere, there’s hope in Tucson that it can be another special year.

If the Utes can beat Oklahoma State and Arizona in back-to-back weeks, they would be in the driver’s seat for a trip to Arlington for the Big 12 championship game. Conversely, if Utah lost that pair of games, it would have a massive uphill climb.

By the end of September, we should know a lot about Utah’s trajectory.

3. At UCF, Nov. 29

Utah’s late-season woes, which plagued them throughout much of the Pac-12 era, were conquered in back-to-back Pac-12 title seasons as the Utes beat No. 3 Oregon in 2021 before beating the Ducks again weeks later in the Pac-12 championship and defeating No. 4 USC in the 2022 Pac-12 championship.

A trip to Orlando on the final week of the regular season conjures up some of those spooky November vibes, though.

Slated for Black Friday, it’s a short week for the Utes, who fly cross-country for their longest road trip of the year after playing what should be a good Iowa State team at Rice-Eccles Stadium.

Star running back RJ Harvey, who rushed for 1,416 yards last year, returns, alongside receiver Kobe Hudson (900 yards, eight touchdowns) and the Knights have Arkansas transfer quarterback KJ Jefferson running the show.

Ricky Barber and Lee Hunter are key returners on the defensive line, and UCF is rebuilding its defense through the transfer portal after a disappointing season on that side of the ball, so it should be improved.

It could be a critical game for the Big 12 title race at the Bounce House.

“We play him late in November, in our place. I’m glad we’re playing at home, there’s no doubt about that. Got a lot of respect for him and hoping that game will be of some importance,” UCF coach Gus Malzahn said about Utah coach Kyle Whititngham.

4. Iowa State, Nov. 23

One week prior to the regular-season finale at UCF, the Utes play what is probably their second-hardest home contest.

Iowa State enters the season on the fringes of the Big 12 title mix, picked to finish sixth in the preseason media poll. Don’t write the Cyclones off based on their 7-6 record last year — Iowa State is poised to make a jump this season.

There’s a wealth of returning experience — nine starters on offense and nine on defense are back — including quarterback Rocco Becht, who threw for 3,120 yards and 23 touchdowns and was named the Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year.

A strong backfield, all five offensive line starters back, and the vast majority of 2023′s defense, which allowed just 22.7 points per game (42nd in the country) returning make this an intriguing late-season game for the Utes.

5. BYU, Nov. 9

BYU was picked No. 13 in the Big 12 in the media’s preseason poll, so why do we think the game against the Cougars could be more difficult than games against TCU, Colorado, and Baylor, all of whom are projected to finish higher in the standings?

It’s simple. You can’t discount the rivalry factor.

From 2009 to 2021, only three games between the two in-state rivals located 45 miles apart have been decided by more than a score.

Utah has more talent than BYU this year, and will be favored to win, but there’s no telling what’s going to happen when the two rivals meet.

The most important games for the Utes this season are Oklahoma State, Arizona and UCF, but the rivalry game always carries extra weight, especially with the two teams back in the same conference.

Players from both sides have this one circled.

“I don’t know how (Utah) can’t (be the biggest game),” said BYU offensive lineman Connor Pay. “We are really excited that Utah is joining our conference, and the Holy War gets to become a staple year in and year out, like it once was. And not just that we are playing each other, but now that there are conference standings on the line.”

Utah quarterback Cam Rising, who has never taken the field against BYU, has been waiting for the rivalry showdown too.

“I just want to go down there, whoop their (expletive) pretty much. That’s all I’m focused on,” Rising said.

The Cougars could improve on their 5-7 record, and 2-7 showing in their inaugural Big 12 season, but Vegas has set their win total at 4.5.

The question mark is at quarterback as Baylor transfer Gerry Bohanon and Jake Retzlaff, who finished out the season for the Cougars under center, are still locked in a quarterback battle.

BYU’s offensive line, and defense as a whole, also need to take steps forward this season after poor showings last year.

If the offensive line gels, a quarterback performs better than expected, and the defense improves, the Cougars could have a better season than projected. BYU has talented wide receivers and a solid running back in LJ Martin, who should be healthy for the Utah game.

Both teams have a bye week coming into the game, providing two weeks of game preparation.

The Utes are looking for revenge after BYU snapped Utah’s nine-game rivalry win streak in 2021, and this should be an emotionally-charged game at Rice-Eccles Stadium, a place where BYU hasn’t won since 2006.

6. TCU, Oct. 19

An old Mountain West Conference foe returns.

TCU was the opponent for some of the most consequential games in Utah history — both good (2008) and bad (2010) — and though they’re not led by head coach Gary Patterson anymore, there’s a familiar face in former Cal coach Sonny Dykes.

Two seasons removed from the national championship game, the Horned Frogs continue the rebuild after crashing back to earth with a 5-7 record last year.

Josh Hoover ( 2,206 yards and 15 touchdowns with nine interceptions on 62% accuracy) is the starter at quarterback, and TCU returns their two leading pass-catchers, Savion Williams (573 yards on 41 receptions) and JP Richardson (536 yards on 46 receptions).

The question mark is the offensive line and how the Horned Frogs’ defense will rebound after giving up 27.8 points per game last season. The linebacker core looks strong, though, the secondary is rebuilt, including TCU adding former Ute cornerback JaTravis Broughton.

7. At Colorado, Nov. 16

This game could have ranked anywhere from No. 5 to No. 10 on the difficulty scale — there’a a wide range of potential outcomes this season for the Buffaloes.

The Utes travel to Boulder following an emotionally-charged rivalry game against BYU, which could play a factor, but who knows what will be waiting for them on the other side of the field.

It’s another year of wholesale changes through the transfer portal for Coach Dieon Sanders, who brought in 42 transfers and lost 41, per 247Sports .

A reason why this game could be tough?

Quarterback Shedeur Sanders, who threw for 3,230 yards, 27 touchdowns and just three interceptions on 69.3% accuracy, finishing in the top 25 nationally despite missing the better part of two games.

Add in one of the better receiver rooms in the league and a rebuilt offensive line, and the Buffaloes could make strides this season. Losing running back Dylan Edwards (321 yards and a TD as a freshman) to conference foe Kansas State was a blow, but Colorado added Ohio State sophomore Dallan Hayden (118 yards and a TD) and freshman Micah Welch.

Can Colorado’s defense improve after last season’s 34.8 points per game showing (121 out of 130 FBS teams)?

Hunter is back playing both ways, one of six returning starters, and there’s some talented transfers, but time will tell if new defensive coordinator Robert Livingston can turn the tide.

The Buffaloes are still in a rebuild, though, and with a Vegas win total of 5.5, they’re not projected to be a contender.

The Big 12 preseason media poll has them at No. 11 out of 16 teams, but if everything clicks right, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a higher finish. On the flip side, if there’s depth issues like last year, it could be a long season.

8. Baylor, Sep. 7

Due to a series scheduled before Utah joined the Big 12, this game counts as a nonconference contest.

The Utes squeaked by the Bears last year in Waco thanks to some late-game heroics by Nate Johnson and Jaylon Glover, but Utah is hoping it’s not as close this season.

Dave Aranda is on the hot seat, as Baylor hasn’t had a winning season since 2021′s 12-2 Big 12 championship season.

Toledo transfer Dequan Finn is the new quarterback for Baylor, and will captain an offense that scored 23.1 points per game, while Jake Spavital is the new offensive coordinator. Defensively, the Bears allowed 33.3 points per game, one of the worst in the FBS. Aranda is taking over defensive play-calling duties this season to try and spur the defense.

Baylor returns nearly all of its starters from a year ago, which should help, and the Bears will likely be better than its 3-9 record last season, but Utah should handle business in the second game of the season.

9. At Arizona State, Oct. 11

The 2023 season couldn’t have gone much worse for first-year coach Kenny Dillingham, who has to clean up the mess Herm Edwards left.

A large outflow of transfers after Edwards was fired, coupled with a rash of injuries, led to a dismal 3-9 record for the Sun Devils, and the quarterback situation didn’t help — Arizona State used four of them last season.

Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt, a quarterback target for Utah this offseason, should be the starter, trying to turn it around in Tempe.

Everything should be improved for Arizona State, including some new talented transfers, but there’s still a long way to go. Plus, Utah comes off of a bye before this game.

10. At Utah State, Sep. 14

September’s trip to Maverik Stadium — Utah’s first since a 27-20 overtime loss in 2012 — is intriguing.

How will the Aggies respond this season after the firing of Blake Anderson? How will interim coach Nate Dreiling do?

Utah State — expected to start Iowa transfer Spencer Petras at quarterback — returns a lot of its contributors from last season’s 26th-ranked scoring offense (33.2 points per game), including star receiver Jalen Royals.

The big question: Can USU improve on defense? The Aggies — gave up 433.1 yards per game, but are looking to rebound, led by star safety Ike Larsen.

It should be a hostile atmosphere in Logan, and it could be a closer game than most expect, but it would be quite a surprise for the Aggies to pull off a win.

11. At Houston, Oct. 26

The good news for Houston?

Willie Fritz has had success practically everywhere he goes, including a 12-2 season with a Cotton Bowl win over USC in 2022.

The bad news is that it’s going to take some time to find that same success at Houston. The Cougars struggled in their first season in the Big 12, and though they return starting quarterback Donovan Smith, Houston will likely fail to reach bowl eligibility again.

12. Southern Utah, Aug. 29

With all due respect to Southern Utah, which is picked to finish third in the United Athletic Conference, there’s a reason Utah scheduled this game. It’ll be a nice warm up for Rising and the Utes and a chance to get the backups some game reps.