Is Phil Lyman’s write-in candidacy a blow to GOP unity or a beacon for election transparency?

State Rep. Phil Lyman has launched a write-in campaign for governor after the Utah Supreme Court dismissed his petition to remove Gov. Spencer Cox from office and name himself as the Republican nominee in November’s election.

Lyman lost to Cox in the GOP primary election on June 25 by more than 37,500 votes. He has not yet conceded, citing concerns over the transparency of signature packets and a 10-year-old law that provides an alternative route to primary elections other than the GOP nominating convention, which Lyman won in April .

A few of Lyman’s colleagues in the Utah Legislature say Lyman, who will continue to represent southeastern Utah until January, is drawing attention to real reforms that need to be made to Utah election law.

But several GOP lawmakers in the state’s House and Senate expressed worry that his last-ditch efforts to appear on the general election ballot are the wrong way to advertise or achieve such reforms, and will help Cox’s Democratic opponent, state Rep. Brian King, while hurting the Utah Republican Party.

Lyman launches write-in campaign

On Tuesday, the Utah Supreme Court denied Lyman’s request to remove Cox and Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson from office and advance himself to the general election. The justices said they had already rejected the same arguments in previous cases and Lyman did not show any legal basis for setting aside the primary results.

In the hours since the ruling was released, Lyman has dived headlong into a write-in candidacy, saying he will provide supporters with “write-in” yard signs and expressing confidence that his campaign — now unaffiliated and unsupported by the state Republican Party — can tilt the 2024 gubernatorial race in his favor.

“We will absolutely continue to fight,” Lyman said in a post on Sunday. “We question not only the primary election results; we also reject the entire apparatus that allows corrupt establishment politicians to retain their power and influence year after year, without any transparency.”

The Deseret News reached out to Lyman for further comment on his decision to run as a write-in candidate but he referred back to his Sunday press release. Lyman has until Sept. 3 at 5 p.m. to file as a write-in candidate. As soon as he does, counties can begin printing ballots.

While the Utah Republican Party supported Lyman as the convention nominee following his 67.5%-32.5% win over Cox among convention delegates, state GOP Chair Rob Axson said “a write-in candidate is not something that we would ever support.”

“We are Republicans for a reason. We believe in our nominees,” Axson told the Deseret News. “If somebody believes in the platform and the tenets of the Republican Party, they should not be working against the Republican Party and its candidates.”

Can Lyman win as a write-in candidate?

The odds are stacked against Lyman’s plan to challenge both major parties’ nominees.

Marty Carpenter managed former Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr.’s 2020 gubernatorial campaign when he lost to Cox by less than 2 percentage points. After the narrow defeat, Huntsman was encouraged to reenter the race as a write-in candidate.

But the realities of a campaign where the candidate’s name does not even appear on the ballot made the decision to forego a write-in candidacy “fairly simple,” Carpenter said.

“It’s a long shot, at best, for a write-in candidate to even really compete,” Carpenter said. “There’s virtually no way that a write-in candidate wins; and while he may draw some support away from Spencer Cox — (because) the voters who have been big Phil Lyman supporters are likely to vote for him — it won’t be enough to really make a significant impact.”

Lyman’s 195,000 votes from the primary likely form a ceiling of support, Carpenter said, explaining there is “an ardent group” that “dislike the governor enough” to write Lyman’s name on their ballot. But compared to the 919,000 votes received by Cox and Henderson in the 2020 general election, and the 443,000 received by their Democratic opponent, Lyman’s vote total appears more likely to secure him a third-place finish in 2024, according to Carpenter.

Veteran Utah GOP operative Jason Powers said the country’s last successful statewide write-in campaign was likely that of Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, in 2010 after she was ousted in her primary. But Murkowski’s historic win relied on high name I.D. as a sitting senator and millions of dollars.

“A successful statewide write-in campaign in Utah would be very expensive, in the neighborhood of $11 million,” Powers said. “With the general election just 12 weeks away, a challenger raising that amount of money in this state is a nearly impossible task.”

Will Lyman’s write-in candidacy hurt Cox?

Rep. Kera Birkeland, R-Morgan, doesn’t believe her colleague’s quixotic write-in campaign poses a threat to Cox. But she worries it could help Democrats by further dividing Utah Republicans.

“What I think it’ll do is just create more factions within the Republican Party which will harm a lot more Republicans running for office statewide,” Birkeland said.

Lyman’s post-primary messaging has featured numerous suggestions that a vote for King — the Democratic Party nominee — would be better than a vote for Cox in the general election. In a post on Tuesday, Birkeland said Lyman’s write-in campaign reveals that Lyman has a “preference for Brian King over Spencer Cox for governor.”

King’s campaign has cheered on Lyman’s decision to run a write-in campaign, seeing it as a way to take advantage of a divided GOP. “If you feel that your party has left you, there is a place for you in our campaign,” King said in a statement.

Cox and the Utah Republican Party have tried to counter Lyman’s strategy by laying out the difference between Cox’s and King’s policy platforms. During his first term as governor, Cox supported the passage of measures enhancing constitutional firearm carry, abortion restrictions and election security, while King voted against each piece of legislation.

“Gov. Cox looks forward to working hard to earn the trust of Utah voters in the upcoming general election against a liberal Democrat who wants to turn Utah into Gavin Newsom’s California,” said Cox campaign manager Matt Lusty in a statement

In a post on Wednesday, Sen. Mike Lee, who enjoys consistently high approval ratings among Utah conservatives, said he would be voting for Cox in November.

“Primary elections are where Republicans vigorously debate policy differences. The Primary is over. We cannot risk Utah turning into California. We must defeat the Democrats by uniting behind our fellow Republicans,” Lee said.

What are Lyman’s election concerns?

Some Lyman supporters in the Legislature said fears that Lyman could spoil the election for King are overblown and that his campaign is drawing attention to important issues with the voting system. Lyman opposes Utah’s signature path to the primary ballot and says Utah privacy laws have made it difficult for him to verify the signatures Cox gathered.

“Conjecture about how candidates will interfere with each others’ chances is not the issue Utahns are concerned about. They want to know that the election process is handled in a fair and honest manner,” said Utah Rep. Mike Petersen, R-North Logan.

Petersen is one of the few lawmakers to have publicly endorsed Lyman. He said political parties should be able to decide how they select nominees without the state interfering. As far as he is concerned, Petersen said, “Phil Lyman is the Republican nominee for governor.”

This view is shared by Rep. Rex Shipp, R-Cedar City, who also endorsed Lyman during the primary. He believes Lyman should be the party nominee after winning at convention and is glad Lyman is using his campaign to highlight voters’ concerns with transparency in the signature-gathering process and mail-in voting.

“I think the people are just upset about the whole process, frankly. And I think Phil is doing what he feels is right for Phil,” Shipp said, later clarifying that he thought Lyman was acting on behalf of concerned voters. “I don’t fault him at all for what he’s doing because there are inconsistencies.”

Another Utah elected official, who supported Lyman during the primary, spoke with the Deseret News on the condition of anonymity and said Lyman’s write-in bid will damage the party and reveals a side of Lyman he hadn’t seen: “I like Phil. He’s a good man. But this is not the Phil Lyman that I know.”

“What is toxic, specifically, is when Phil, or supporters of Phil, have said that they would be happier if King won over Cox. That’s a very dangerous sentiment to have,” the source said. “He clearly fully understands his political career is over and it’s one last ditch effort and he’s the one that’s going to go down with that ship.”

Will lawmakers address election concerns?

Utah state Sen. Mike McKell, R-Spanish Fork, said legislators will learn from this election cycle, which has been marked by legal fights over protected voter information and late postmarked ballots. But these issues are best resolved in the Legislature, not the courts, he said.

“We don’t do it through overturning elections. We do it through the legislative process,” said McKell, who is Cox’s brother-in-law.

Now that Lyman has rejected the results of the primary and called Cox and Henderson “ election stealers ,” McKell is not confident that Lyman will accept the election results in November either.

“There’s a scenario where I would envision Phil Lyman continuing to run even after the November election,” McKell said.

Sen. Dan McCay, R-Riverton, introduced a bill during the 2024 legislative session that would have prohibited a candidate who already filed a declaration of candidacy from running as a write-in candidate for the same election. The bill failed in committee.

McCay said the fact Lyman performed well in the primary, coming within 9% of Cox, shows he’s speaking to issues voters care about, including those concerning the electoral system. McCay agrees there should be more transparency surrounding voter information but said the place to protest and fix problems is the Legislature, not the campaign trail.

There are already open bill files dealing with the ballot curing process, preventing late postmarked ballots, cleaning voter rolls for vote-by-mail ballots and increasing transparency in the signature-gathering process, McCay, and other lawmakers, confirmed.

“The more transparent an election process can be, the less there will be perception that something is amiss,” McCay said. “When you hurt transparency, you hurt trust.”