Will BYU struggle, or prove the doubters wrong?

Welcome to the last of 40 straight weekends of speculation. The questions that have been kicked around since the fumble that ended BYU’s 2023 season are about to be answered — one way or the other.

There are two camps prophesying two different outcomes. Las Vegas projects BYU to win four games, finish near the bottom of the Big 12 and miss the postseason for a second straight year.

Cougars head coach Kalani Sitake has a different take. He has to. He is the guy in charge of fixing what led to last year’s 5-7 season — and he believes he has. College football’s first Tongan head coach thinks BYU will be better.

Only one can be right when it comes to wins and losses. Early evidence will be presented against Southern Illinois, but on paper — and in practice — Sitake’s solutions give him reason to believe the Cougars will surprise a lot of people.

This is why he feels optimistic.

In question: Quarterback play

Answer: Sitake has stayed mum on who he prefers, but he loves the competition . Jake Retzlaff’s offseason goal was to show he could take better care of the football and didn’t throw an interception throughout spring practice. Gerry Bohanon, a grad transfer from South Florida, needed to show the mending process for his surgically replaced shoulder was complete.

Both quarterbacks achieved their goal. By nature of him being at BYU longer, Retzlaff has a deeper knowledge of the playbook. However, Bohanon has a considerable edge in D1 experience, including a Big 12 championship at Baylor in 2021. At 6-foot-3, 235 pounds, Bohanon is a formidable force as a scrambler.

Sitake is banking on both guys getting the job done.

In question: Running the football

Answer: After a season where BYU finished 111th in rushing (104.3 yards per game) Sitake hired TJ Woods as the new offensive line coach and running game coordinator. By all accounts, including consistent testimonials from veteran linemen like Connor Pay, Woods and new tight ends coach Kevin Gilbride have been game changers, and the boys up front will reflect the resurgence next Saturday. If true, with three healthy running backs, BYU’s ground attack should start moving again.

In question: Taking care of the football

Answer: During BYU’s five victories last fall, the Cougar offense turned the ball over just twice. But in the seven defeats, it coughed it up 17 times. One less turnover against No. 13 Oklahoma would have likely sent BYU to a bowl game. That’s how close they were to a non-losing season.

Taking care of the football has been Sitake’s battle cry the entire offseason. Even the slightest improvement in that area could be the difference between a winning and losing record. The coach believes that issue has been addressed.

In question: Tight end production

Answer: Sitake moved Keanu Hill from receiver to tight end . The 6-4 target returns with the same soft hands and athleticism, but he brings a body that has been bulked up by 25 pounds to 240. Hill has been so good in practice that offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick said they should have made the position switch a lot earlier.

Hill gives BYU a mobile tight end for the first time since the end of the 2021 season when Isaac Rex wrecked his ankle at USC. To his warrior-like credit, even with a wounded frame, Rex played the last two years and finished as the Cougars’ all-time touchdown leader for tight ends; however, a healthy Hill will give Roderick many more options — especially over the middle.

In question: Stopping the run

Answer: Sitake believes a second season under defensive coordinator Jay Hill will make BYU much better in general, but specifically, he added transfers Jack Kelly (Weber State) and Choe Bryant-Strother (UCLA) to beef up the linebacking corps.

Further development up front with Blake Mangelson, a healthy John Nelson and rush ends Tyler Batty (All-Big 12) and Isaiah Bagnah, with depth behind them, will give the Cougars a better push at the line of scrimmage.

The Cougars allowed 177.7 rushing yards per game (109th in FBS). Sitake, a former defensive coordinator, knows stopping the run and getting off the field on third down will change their fortunes this fall. He thinks they will.

In question: Scoring points

Answer: A BYU team that averages 23.1 points per game (99th in FBS) is an oddity when considering the history of the program. However, the red flags that showed up in the Cougars’ 14-0 victory against Sam Houston in the season opener are the same ones that dogged the team all season and they will be the ones Sitake will be watching for next weekend.

The answer to scoring more points is a natural byproduct of all other the adjustments Sitake and his staff have made. At BYU, everything begins with the quarterback, but running the ball, stopping the run, taking care of the ball and scoring points are elementary to success. They are also Sitake’s solutions to surprising the country.

Las Vegas says his boys can’t do it and they are betting on it. Sitake believes just the opposite and he is counting on it. Only one will be right.

Dave McCann is a sportswriter and columnist for the Deseret News and is a play-by-play announcer and show host for BYUtv/ESPN+. He co-hosts “Y’s Guys” at ysguys.com and is the author of the children’s book “C is for Cougar,” available at deseretbook.com .