Trying to predict BYU sacks proved dangerous territory for pundits in 2023

Talk is cheap in August when it comes to football.

This was evident a year ago when I stepped into it, making a few seasonal predictions.

You do that as a sports writer. People expect commentary, projections and predictions so they can line them up against what they know or feel.

The most blatant was projecting how many sacks BYU’s defense would register under new defensive coordinator Jay Hill.

Mea culpa. On steroids.

The previous season BYU had produced just 15 sacks, led by tackle John Nelson (three) and defensive end Tyler Batty (two). With the addition of USU transfer AJ Vongphachanh, who had seven sacks in 40 games in Logan, the return of Batty and leading tackler Ben Bywater and others, I ventured into the “double up” zone, predicting the 2023 team would get 30 sacks in the Big 12.

Wrong.

It was worse.

BYU managed just 11 sacks last year, the second-worst sack total in the country.

That stinks. It was embarrassing. It was a horrible statistical column figure for BYU to swallow in the stat book and is one reason BYU is picked to finish anywhere from 12th to 14th with Las Vegas oddsmakers saying the Cougars won’t win five games in 2024.

There were a lot of reasons for that. Hill was implementing, teaching and acclimating players into his system, many learning his schemes and calls. He then lost 70% of his starters on defense to injuries at one time or another, including two safeties, along with Bywater, and even Batty and Nelson missed playing time.

But still. Saying 30 and the real number is 11 is, well, not good.

What about this year?

It would be wise not to get in the sack prediction business this month with BYU’s game with Southern Illinois looming next Saturday and the Cougars facing what may be the toughest schedule ever.

Both BYU and Colorado were given the toughest Big 12 schedule in 2024. Kalani Sitake’s program was kind of given the word, “Earn it, and maybe you’ll start getting the benefit of scheduling.”

In the meantime, jump over this gauntlet: BYU will be playing UCF, who had the best recruiting year in the league, league favorite Utah and Baylor on the road, then face the next four toughest teams in Provo (Kansas State, Kansas, Arizona, and Oklahoma State).

There are some reasons for optimism for Hill and what he’s trying to do this fall — other than returning more experience, some key leaders, guys with familiarity to what he tried to teach in 2023.

Our Jay Drew outlined specific additions and returning talent that could help in this piece.

Historically, BYU has had some years with very good sack numbers, some as high as 50. In 1976, Mekeli Ieremia set the school season record with 17. Shawn Knight and Jim Herrmann both had 16 in their seasons, 1986 and 1983. Brandon Flint (1980-83), holds the record for career sacks at 33.

This fall Hill has more depth to cover injuries. He’s got promising safeties, corners and linebackers and has brought in talent to help on the line.

He has freshman Ephraim Asiata and Weber State transfer Jack Kelly, who are legitimate QB chasers Simply put, Hill has a lot more help. “I’m excited about our young players, I like what I see,” said Hill.

He’s also had the benefit of a lot of specialized coaching attention from some well-known teachers: senior analysts like former USU, Wisconsin, Oregon State head coach Gary Andersen, and veteran Pac-12 defensive line tutor Chad Kauha’aha’a.

I’ll add another factor, increased gains in the weight room and new support in conditioning and nutrition.

The challenge, explained defensive end coach Kelly Poppinga, is for this BYU defense to stop the run. If you can’t stop the run and get a team in third-and-long passing downs, you won’t have many opportunities to get sacks.

Another factor head coach Kalani Sitake said this past week is for BYU’s offense to get early leads on opponents.

“We have to start fast and get ahead. If we do that, they’ll have to pass and that opens up opportunities for more pressure and sacks on defense.”

So, that’s a factor that isn’t defense but impacts Hill’s side of the ball — what he can and can’t do.

The Big 12 is known for its outstanding running backs. They run behind big and talented offensive lines.

Run stops are priority No. 1.

Predicting BYU sacks in 2024?

Nope. I’ll stay in my lane.

But, I do believe they’ll get more than 11.

I think one player might get three in one game.

Oops.

Couldn’t help it.